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Currencies

Crushed FX volatility as dollar, finally, subsides

LONDON, Nov 22 (Reuters) - If you were looking for a klaxon to mark the end of the interest rate cycle, a crushing of currency market volatility rings loudly.Deutsche Bank's CVIX (.DBCVIX) - the currency market's version of Wall St's "fear index" of stock volatility and a weighted average of implied "vol" in nine major pairings - has basically imploded.Subdued since mid-year, the CVIX took another sharp leg lower this month and hit its lowest since mid-February 2022 - just before Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the first of the...
Banking

Central banks need a word with budget masters

LONDON, Nov 10 (Reuters) - If a re-emerging risk premium in bonds is down to government debt sustainability worries, central banks may need to lobby their Treasuries that it's undermining their control of credit.U.S. Federal Reserve officials are puzzling over why bond borrowing rates spiked lately even as Fed policy expectations have remained largely unchanged. Whether a resurfacing "term premium'" now demanded to buy and hold longer-term bonds, is responsible is central to the conundrum.If a sustained or even more volatile risk premium tightens or loosens credit beyond what's intended...
Banking

Odd bond calm loosening Fed squeeze

LONDON, Sept 20 (Reuters) - An eerie calm in U.S. Treasuries seems at odds with uncertainty about the end of the harshest tightening cycles in decades - but it's a lifebuoy for wider markets fearful of draining liquidity.Even though 10-year Treasury yields are clocking 15-year highs, visibility on medium-term growth, inflation, oil prices and government debt is foggy and the Federal Reserve remains coy about the precise end of its 18-month rate squeeze - bond market volatility has plummeted over the past month.The closely watched MOVE index (.MOVE) of implied...