Is The Market Rewarding TrickleStar Limited (Catalist:CYW) With A Negative Sentiment As A Result Of Its Mixed Fundamentals?
It is hard to get excited after looking at TrickleStar’s (Catalist:CYW) recent performance, when its stock has declined 22% over the past month. It is possible that the markets have ignored the company’s differing financials and decided to lean-in to the negative sentiment. Stock prices are usually driven by a company’s financial performance over the long term, and therefore we decided to pay more attention to the company’s financial performance. Specifically, we decided to study TrickleStar’s ROE in this article.
Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company’s shareholders.
Check out our latest analysis for TrickleStar
How Is ROE Calculated?
The formula for return on equity is:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders’ Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for TrickleStar is:
8.3% = US$443k ÷ US$5.3m (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2022).
The ‘return’ is the profit over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each SGD1 of shareholders’ capital it has, the company made SGD0.08 in profit.
What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?
So far, we’ve learned that ROE is a measure of a company’s profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or “retains”, and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.
A Side By Side comparison of TrickleStar’s Earnings Growth And 8.3% ROE
On the face of it, TrickleStar’s ROE is not much to talk about. We then compared the company’s ROE to the broader industry and were disappointed to see that the ROE is lower than the industry average of 11%. Given the circumstances, the significant decline in net income by 60% seen by TrickleStar over the last five years is not surprising. We believe that there also might be other aspects that are negatively influencing the company’s earnings prospects. For example, it is possible that the business has allocated capital poorly or that the company has a very high payout ratio.
That being said, we compared TrickleStar’s performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 1.4% in the same period.
The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company’s expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock’s future looks promising or ominous. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if TrickleStar is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.
Is TrickleStar Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?
TrickleStar doesn’t pay any dividend, meaning that potentially all of its profits are being reinvested in the business, which doesn’t explain why the company’s earnings have shrunk if it is retaining all of its profits. It looks like there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.
Conclusion
On the whole, we feel that the performance shown by TrickleStar can be open to many interpretations. While the company does have a high rate of reinvestment, the low ROE means that all that reinvestment is not reaping any benefit to its investors, and moreover, its having a negative impact on the earnings growth. Wrapping up, we would proceed with caution with this company and one way of doing that would be to look at the risk profile of the business. Our risks dashboard would have the 4 risks we have identified for TrickleStar.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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