Moreover, according to opinion polls, about 80pc of the public opposes the overall pension reform proposals. Indeed, many want the retirement age to be reduced. Trade unions are planning a first day of strikes and demonstrations this Thursday.
There is a long history of French governments backing down in the face of strong opposition on the streets. Given all this and potential opposition in parliament, the reforms could be watered down.
More generally, although France doesn’t have quite the same problem we have with a contraction of the workforce post-Covid, it does have a long-standing problem with a comparatively high rate of unemployment, which currently stands at just over 7pc, compared to the UK’s 3.7pc.
Moreover, among men aged between 55 and 64 its participation rate is among the lowest in the developed world at about 60pc, compared with about 70pc for the UK.
The overall French macro environment is relatively good but still nothing to write home about. Last year the French economy grew by about 2.5pc, a fair bit less than the UK’s rate of 4pc. But France should outpace the UK this year as output stagnates, compared to our likely contraction of 1.5pc.
Before you ask, the performance of the French economy since 2016, the year of the Brexit vote, is a fair bit better than the UK’s – growth of 7pc compared with our 5.5pc. But over this period, France has done better than most other EU members.
Starting even before Brexit, continental commentators have been prone to criticise the UK for headlong de-industrialisation. Indeed, the proportion of the UK’s GDP accounted for by manufacturing is now down to 8.8pc. But the equivalent figure for France is much the same – 8.9pc.
Inflation in France is currently running at only 6.7pc, compared to 10.7pc in the UK (CPI), down from 11.1pc the month before. (The French figures are so much lower because of heavy intervention by the government to contain rising energy prices.)
The latest UK figures are out on Wednesday. They may show a further small fall. Inflation will also fall in France for most of this year, although probably more slowly than in the UK, so that by year-end the two rates should be similar.
