Research: Rating Action: Moody’s assigns provisional ratings to GS Mortgage-Backed Securities Trust 2023-PJ2 Prime RMBS
New York, February 15, 2023 — Moody’s Investors Service (“Moody’s”) has assigned provisional ratings to 43 classes of residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) to be issued by GS Mortgage-Backed Securities 2023-PJ2 and sponsored by Goldman Sachs Mortgage Company (GSMC).
The securities are backed by a pool of prime jumbo (99.3% by balance) and GSE-eligible (0.7% by balance) residential mortgages aggregated by GSMC, including loans aggregated by MAXEX Clearing LLC (MAXEX, 4.5% by balance), and originated by multiple entities and serviced by NewRez LLC d/b/a Shellpoint Mortgage Servicing (Shellpoint) and United Wholesale Mortgage (UWM).
The complete rating actions are as follows:
Issuer: GS Mortgage-Backed Securities Trust 2023-PJ2
Cl. A-1, Assigned (P)Aa1 (sf)
Cl. A-1-X*, Assigned (P)Aa1 (sf)
Cl. A-2, Assigned (P)Aa1 (sf)
Cl. A-3, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-3A, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-3L, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-3-X*, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-4, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-4A, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-4L, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-5, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-5-X*, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-6, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-7, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-7-X*, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-8, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-9, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-9-X*, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-10, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-11, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-11-X*, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-12, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-13, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-13-X*, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-14, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-15, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-15-X*, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-16, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-16L, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-17, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-17-X*, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-18, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-19, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-19-X*, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-20, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-21, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-21-X*, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-22, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-22L, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-23, Assigned (P)Aa2 (sf)
Cl. A-23-X*, Assigned (P)Aa2 (sf)
Cl. A-24, Assigned (P)Aa2 (sf)
Cl. A-X*, Assigned (P)Aa1 (sf)
*Reflects Interest-Only Classes
RATINGS RATIONALE
The ratings are based on the credit quality of the mortgage loans, the structural features of the transaction, the origination quality and the servicing arrangement, the third-party review, and the representations and warranties framework.
Moody’s expected loss for this pool in a baseline scenario-mean is 1.41%, in a baseline scenario-median is 1.04% and reaches 9.35% at a stress level consistent with Moody’s Aaa ratings.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in rating all classes except interest-only classes was “Moody’s Approach to Rating US RMBS Using the MILAN Framework” published in July 2022 and available at https://ratings.moodys.com/api/rmc-documents/390484. The methodologies used in rating interest-only classes were “Moody’s Approach to Rating US RMBS Using the MILAN Framework” published in July 2022 and available at https://ratings.moodys.com/api/rmc-documents/390484 and “Moody’s Approach to Rating Structured Finance Interest-Only (IO) Securities” published in February 2019 and available at https://ratings.moodys.com/api/rmc-documents/59126. Please see the list of ratings at the top of this announcement to identify which classes are interest-only (indicated by the *). Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on https://ratings.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
Up
Levels of credit protection that are higher than necessary to protect investors against current expectations of loss could drive the ratings up. Losses could decline from Moody’s original expectations as a result of a lower number of obligor defaults or appreciation in the value of the mortgaged property securing an obligor’s promise of payment. Transaction performance also depends greatly on the US macro economy and housing market.
Down
Levels of credit protection that are insufficient to protect investors against current expectations of loss could drive the ratings down. Losses could rise above Moody’s original expectations as a result of a higher number of obligor defaults or deterioration in the value of the mortgaged property securing an obligor’s promise of payment. Transaction performance also depends greatly on the US macro economy and housing market. Other reasons for worse-than-expected performance include poor servicing, error on the part of transaction parties, inadequate transaction governance and fraud.
Finally, performance of RMBS continues to remain highly dependent on servicer procedures. Any change resulting from servicing transfers or other policy or regulatory change can impact the performance of these transactions. In addition, improvements in reporting formats and data availability across deals and trustees may provide better insight into certain performance metrics such as the level of collateral modifications.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For further specification of Moody’s key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody’s Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found on https://ratings.moodys.com/rating-definitions.
Further information on the representations and warranties and enforcement mechanisms available to investors are available on https://ratings.moodys.com/documents/PBS_1358368.
The analysis relies on an assessment of collateral characteristics to determine the collateral loss distribution, that is, the function that correlates to an assumption about the likelihood of occurrence to each level of possible losses in the collateral. As a second step, Moody’s evaluates each possible collateral loss scenario using a model that replicates the relevant structural features to derive payments and therefore the ultimate potential losses for each rated instrument. The loss a rated instrument incurs in each collateral loss scenario, weighted by assumptions about the likelihood of events in that scenario occurring, results in the expected loss of the rated instrument.
Moody’s quantitative analysis entails an evaluation of scenarios that stress factors contributing to sensitivity of ratings and take into account the likelihood of severe collateral losses or impaired cash flows. Moody’s weights the impact on the rated instruments based on its assumptions of the likelihood of the events in such scenarios occurring.
For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody’s rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider’s credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the issuer/deal page for the respective issuer on https://ratings.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.
These ratings are solicited. Please refer to Moody’s Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on its website https://ratings.moodys.com.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.
Moody’s general principles for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at https://ratings.moodys.com/documents/PBC_1288235.
The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody’s affiliates outside the EU and is endorsed by Moody’s Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, Frankfurt am Main 60322, Germany, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody’s office that issued the credit rating is available on https://ratings.moodys.com.
The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody’s affiliates outside the UK and is endorsed by Moody’s Investors Service Limited, One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5FA under the law applicable to credit rating agencies in the UK. Further information on the UK endorsement status and on the Moody’s office that issued the credit rating is available on https://ratings.moodys.com.
Please see https://ratings.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody’s legal entity that has issued the rating.
Please see the issuer/deal page on https://ratings.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Brian Coffey
Asst Vice President – Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody’s Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653
Ruomeng Cui
Vice President – Senior Analyst
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653
Releasing Office:
Moody’s Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653
