It’s for real — Advertising a row — Postcard from Swindon – POLITICO

Good afternoon.

WEDNESDAY CHEAT SHEET

— Parliament is about to close for elections (and coronation) recess, with ballots in the locals opening tomorrow morning.

— SCOOP: An anti-woke Conservative MP declared war on the advertising watchdog over a “racist” government prisons ad.

— The SNP appointed new auditors amid an ongoing financial scandal.

— Playbook PM went to Swindon to work out whether Labour will flip its top target council in the local elections.

**A message from Lloyds Banking Group: We’re helping our customers as they navigate the increased cost of living. That’s why we’ve proactively contacted over 5.5 million customers since the start of 2022 to let them know we’re here to help. This is just one of the ways we’re helping Britain prosper. Find out more.**

TOP OF THE NEWSLIST

IT’S FOR REAL NOW: Parliament is breaking up for elections tonight, with Westminster mothballed while voters in England head to the polls to give their councilors a kicking.

Long weekend: After all the ballots are cast tomorrow, and the results finish coming in on Friday, it’s the coronation of King Charles III on Saturday, meaning a bank holiday weekend — a.k.a great news for even the most staunch republicans.

But before all that: The last knock-about before recess was standard stuff, as Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer went head to head in their final PMQs before the elections. The Labour leader went in on housing; well, more on Liz Truss putting a bomb under the mortgage market, meaning bigger bills for households each month.

Armed with numbers: Starmer said 850,000 people were stumping up for higher mortgages, after Sunak refused his invitation to spell out the figure himself. The Labour boss said there were “nearly a million people paying more on their mortgage each month because his party used their money as a casino chip.”

But but but: Sunak argued interest rates are coming down and predicted debt would rise under Labour. He also pointed to the government’s 95 percent mortgage guarantee scheme.

Feeling the squeeze: After Starmer piled the pressure on Sunak, it was time for SNP Westminster Leader Stephen Flynn to put the heat under Starmer. He said Labour was having a “Nick Clegg moment” following the opposition leader’s admission earlier this week that he would ditch his promise to scrap uni tuition fees.

Now read this: Our Andrew McDonald has his usual PMQs scorecard here. Both Sunak and Starmer took home 7 out of 10, in his view.

AOB: The row over Sue Gray also rumbled on … despite there being no actual developments.

Rach and pains: Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves told Times Radio the Cabinet Office probe into the matter (which is separate from ACOBA’s ruling, expected shortly) is a “political gimmick” to pursue a “vendetta” against the former top government official — a charge Downing Street denies.

It’s all fine: Government officials argue the investigation is reasonable, and have been making their case to ITV’s Robert Peston. But in the press huddle after PMQs, a spokesman for Rishi Sunak played down the Cabinet Office probe, insisting it wasn’t an “inquiry” but a consideration of whether civil service rules had been upheld. He said it was “disappointing” Gray wouldn’t engage.

WE MIGHT ALL BE DUST SOON, ANYWAY: Stuff like Sue Gray and local elections might well be by the by if this one blows up (no pun intended.) Ukraine denied trying to assassinate Russian President Vladimir Putin during an overnight drone attack on his Moscow residence. My POLITICO colleagues report Russia claims it foiled a Ukrainian-backed plot to target Putin, but officials in Kyiv denied the Kremlin’s allegations.

ADVERTISING A ROW

SCOOP: A Conservative MP slammed the advertising watchdog after it rejected a government appeal about a prisons advert deemed racist. The Advertising Standards Authority said the Ministry of Justice advert, depicting a white prison officer and black prisoner, “perpetuated a negative ethnic stereotype.” The government appealed the original verdict last November, but an independent review upheld the initial decision, arguing the ad could cause serious offence when seen in isolation on Facebook rather than as part of a wider campaign.

Decision explained: “The prisoner was only seen from behind, with his face not visible and his arms crossed, and wore his hair in an afro style, with an afro pick comb,” the ASA explained. “We understood the hairstyle and hairstyling tool worn were important aspects of black culture, and were uniquely associated with it … Overall, those elements had the effect of emphasizing his race, rather than his inclusion in the ad as an individual [prisoner]. So, in the context of a prison scene, we considered that it was perpetuating a negative ethnic stereotype about black men as criminals, and likely to cause serious offence.”

It’s worth noting: The photo was taken inside a real prison and was of a real prisoner and a real prison officer.

Not impressed: Conservative MP Ben Bradley, a member of the anti-woke Common Sense Group of Conservative MPs, said the verdict was “stupid.” He told Playbook PM: “It’s a ridiculous ruling and the vast majority of people out there in the country will think it’s a ridiculous ruling. What the ruling effectively says is you can’t show any black person in any negative scenario, ever. I don’t understand why we are paying people to make these ridiculous, politically correct judgments and upholding complaints by one or a handful of people, when actually the vast majority of the country thinks it’s stupid.”

Official response: “We appealed the decision in order to reassert the important principle that we should be able to represent real officers and prisoners in our advertising,” an MoJ spokesperson said. “This photo was one of many we use to help potential prison officers understand what to expect from the role, and to show the priority we place on building constructive relationships with prisoners.”

DRIVETIME DEBRIEF

SNP SIGH OF RELIEF: The SNP confirmed this morning they’ve found new auditors for both the party and Westminster group — meaning they’ll likely dodge the mega fines and loss of short money that would have hit the party if it failed to submit audited accounts by the end of the month. SNP Westminster Leader Stephen Flynn said he was confident the accounts deadline would now be met. The Beeb has more.

The bad news for the SNP: The nationalists have dipped to their lowest poll rating since October 2014, according to a new Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll that went up in the past few minutes. The poll among Scots found support for the SNP at 35 percent and support for “no” on the independence question leading by 10 percent. Details here.  

Conservative fox shot: Philip van Scheltinga, director of research at R&W, told Playbook PM he is seeing a Labour resurgence north of the border, which represents “a major disruption to the political equation.” He added: “Not only will they pick up a number of seats in Scotland, but an attack line from the Conservatives from the 2010s disappears completely: The Conservatives can no longer say to voters in England that a vote for anyone but the Conservatives risks a Labour coalition government with the SNP and the breakup of the union.”

ROYAL PERFORMANCE REVIEW: Ahead of his coronation this weekend, YouGov polling found 59 percent of Brits have a positive view of King Charles, while 33 percent have a negative view. The proportion who think he’s doing a good job (despite the lack of job description) is also 59 percent, while 14 percent reckon he’s doing a bad job. Those 14 percent will have “the liberty that anybody in the United Kingdom has to protest” against the monarchy this weekend, Security Minister Tom Tugendhat told BBC Radio 4 this morning — which doesn’t quite explain the Conservatives rushing in new laws to curtail protesters.

Coronation in parliament: The Speaker’s State Coach will go on public display in the Palace of Westminster for a few months following the coronation, the House of Commons announced.

SCORES ON THE DOORS: Foreign Secretary James Cleverly is down eight points in the latest ConservativeHome Cabinet league table (a poll of members) while Health Secretary Steve Barclay is back in the top 10. A good birthday present for the health boss.

COMPUTERS SAYS NO JOBS: Former Chief Scientific Officer Patrick Vallance told MPs on the science and tech committee artificial intelligence would bring benefits but “could be as big as the industrial revolution” in terms of impact on jobs.

IN THE COMMONS: MPs voted down a Lords amendment to the national security bill that would require greater transparency on political donations from foreign powers — despite Conservative MP and intelligence and security committee chair Julian Lewis arguing for it. Security Minister Tom Tugendhat insisted new laws aren’t needed because existing legislation covers the matter.

BROKEN BRITAIN: Unite will ballot council workers in England, Wales and Northern Ireland for industrial action after a wage hike offer of between 3.9 percent and 9 percent was rejected.

OUCH: Government ministers have no plans to meet Donald Trump while he’s in the U.K. — despite Cabinet members meeting with Trump’s Republican rival and Florida governor Ron DeSantis last week. Downing Street said the difference in treatment was because DeSantis wanted to talk trade with Florida.

Speaking of the Don: Trump’s half-hour interview with Nigel Farage will be aired at 7 p.m. tonight on GB News. The grilling about Trump’s “personal legal issues” will no doubt be fierce.

Another ouch: In the end, Farage’s big exclusive wasn’t soo exclusive after all. Trump blasted former Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon in an interview with the Scottish Sun. He complained she harmed businesses in Scotland … which doesn’t sound like sour grapes about her banning him from golfing there during Joe Biden’s inauguration. Not at all.

ELSEWHERE ON TV TONIGHT: The ITV Peston show is launching a Youth Tracker, polling the political sentiment among 18 to 25-year-olds three times a year. More details from 9 p.m. on the Peston Twitter feed or 10.50 p.m. on ITV.

Little scoop on the numbers: Some 21 percent of young people aged 18 to 25 have a favourable opinion of the government (which doesn’t seem that bad, all things considered) while just 7 percent feel strongly favourable, according to data shared with Playbook PM in advance. 

WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: The U.K. has donated 21 fire and rescue vehicles and 8,000 pieces of equipment to Ukraine, the Home Office announced.

POSTCARD FROM SWINDON

SUMMER FOR LABOUR: On a sun-drenched residential street on the edge of Swindon, Jim Robbins is sweating optimism. 

One more heave: The councilor and Labour group leader reckons he’s within touching distance of seizing Swindon town hall following two decades of Conservative rule. And he’s not alone. Swindon is the number one Labour target council in tomorrow’s local elections. It’s where Keir Starmer launched the entire Labour campaign; where a string of shadow frontbenchers have been turning up to canvas; and where Labour activists have been flooding in from London to help with the groundwork.

Promising stuff: It’s little surprise that one of the most deprived wards in the area, where a high number of residents are council tenants, is planning to vote Labour. Robbins notes that the Liden, Eldene and Park South ward turned against the party over Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn, although now the worst seems to be behind it. At one house, a woman in her 30s argues Labour is “the only option,” while at another the respondent simply says “of course” when Robbins asks if she’ll be voting Labour.

Not a Conservative target zone: Theresa Younger, a 69-year-old living in the area, said Rishi Sunak wanted to “kill our national health, because he goes private” (he has done in the past.) The smell of cut grass wafts on the breeze as Younger complains about Boris Johnson holding lockdown parties in Downing Street too.

Not feeling flat: “We’ve got a decent chance, but we’re not taking anything for granted,” said Robbins, over a flat white in Mabel’s, a cafe in Swindon’s old town. “It feels like the plan is working and we’re confident our messaging is working.”

What’s at stake: A third (19) of the council seats are up for grabs this time around. In the 2019 race for the same seats, the Tories managed to add one to their total despite having a terrible night elsewhere in England. The council is a two-horse race and Labour needs to add six seats to its current 23 to flip it. Doing so is vital to maintaining the narrative that Labour is on course to win the next general election — with Swindon a crucial bellwether. Robbins argues even small gains would be a good indication of progress, however.

The swing to Swindon: The Labour boss admits frustrations about the Tories in Westminster are a significant driver in the locals, but argues issues on the ground matter too. Labour claims regeneration projects in Swindon have been stalling, the roads need work and lots of the old buildings — for example around the historic rail village, which lasted more than a century as the center of rail building and maintenance in the west of England — have been forgotten.

Tories tapping out: “It feels like there’s a lot of potential around the town that hasn’t been tapped into,” Robbins said, arguing the Conservatives had “run out of ideas.” Labour wants to push economic models tried in the U.S. and northern England to maximize and build on local wealth, among other things.

STEPPING BACK IN TIME: In the Queenstown Social Club, just around the corner from Swindon’s infamous Magic Roundabout, club secretary Dave Nicol is less confident of a Labour win. The former working men’s club was founded in 1898 and moved to its current location in Old Walcot in 1963. The bar has a classic floral carpet, strip lighting and the kinds of fruit machines that still have buttons. There are two dart boards, a skittles lane and two full-size snooker tables in a separate room that was once lined with the personal cues of the clientele. 

On the wane: Punters — those who are left — are grappling with the cost of living. “I know certain members are struggling but I try to keep the prices as low as I can,” said Dave, a retired bus driver. He reckoned about 80 members disappeared during the COVID pandemic, leaving total sign-ups to the club around the 200 mark. Dwindling numbers and rocketing costs have added to the pressure on the business. There were once 23 working men’s clubs in Swindon; now there are six.

Death and taxes: For Dave, the main issues at the election are council tax, which is taking a big bite out of his small pension, and “the state of the town center.” He complained that despite new buildings popping up, there are numerous boarded up shops, while heritage sites like the Swindon Mechanics Institute (a derelict social center built for Victorian rail workers) and the Locarno building (a former town hall that once served as a music venue) have been left to rot. 

What it all means: “It could be a stalemate or a marginal increase to Labour,” Dave reckoned. He noted the lack of love for both Labour and the Tories in Swindon, but agreed national polls have a good chance of proving accurate in bellwether seats.

GET THIS MAN SOME ASPRIN: Indeed, it’s those national polls that are causing headaches for David Renard, Conservative leader of the council. “We’re asking people not to make it a referendum on whatever they think of national politics and politicians,” he said over the phone. “Councilors and council leaders of all political persuasions get very frustrated that national politics sometimes gets in the way of all the great work going on locally.”

Of course: The drama of the Boris Johnson and Liz Truss melt-downs was the driver of the Labour poll lead. “What’s gone on nationally in the last 12 months will affect the voting intentions of some, certainly,” Renard admitted. He said Sunak should be applauded for having “stabilized the ship” but that it will take time for people to feel that in their pockets, meaning many voters might not turn out this week.

Pace of change: Being tied to the national political picture must be frustrating for a council that has won £100 million in investment for roads and other infrastructure, estimated to translate into around 7,000 jobs. “I don’t think the government or the council can be criticized in terms of the amount of money that’s been put in and how fast it’s been spent,” said Renard. 

SOCIAL AFFAIRS

MAKING A POINT: The FCDO found an interesting method of highlighting Russian censorship of the media on press freedom day. Check out the tweet here.

AROUND THE WORLD

UNDER THE SEA: Three Russian Navy ships were detected in waters close to the site of the Nord Stream explosions in the months leading up to the pipeline sabotage. My POLITICO colleague Charlie Cooper reports the ships included a research vessel believed to be capable of carrying out underwater surveillance.

IN SERBIA: A teenager opened fire on his classmates in central Belgrade, killing eight and injuring six. Bloomberg says the perpetrator has been arrested.

IN BRAZIL: Brazilian police searched the mansion of former President Jair Bolsonaro and seized his phone. The Independent reports one of his closest aides, Mauro Cid, was also arrested, with the police investigation linked to the introduction of fraudulent data relating to the COVID-19 vaccine.

IN GAZA: Israel conducted strikes on the Gaza Strip in response to militants firing rockets. CNN says the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) struck a military post, and weapons storage and weapons manufacturing sites belonging to Hamas.

STOP THE PRESS: Journalists across the world are under unprecedented attacks from governments, media watchdog Reporters Without Borders (RSF) warned. The BBC reports RSF argued authorities were becoming more aggressive towards reporters.

**A message from Lloyds Banking Group: We’re committed to helping our customers as they adapt to the increasing cost of living. Since the start of the year, we have offered 260,000 customers a £500 interest free overdraft buffer. And we’ve proactively contacted more than 200,000 mortgage customers on variable rates to tell them how much they could save by transferring to a lower fixed rate. Find out more.**

TONIGHT’S MEDIA ROUND

LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.) leads on Coronation preparation and security …  BBC News at Six focuses on the Kremlin drone attack … Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) looks at the Kremlin’s accusation Ukraine tried to assassinate Putin.

Tom Swarbrick at Drive (LBC, until 6 p.m.): Assistant Commissioner of City of London Police Pete O’Doherty (4.35 p.m.).

News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.):  Former Head of Scotland Yard’s Royal Protection Command Dai Davies (5.45 p.m.).

Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, 5 p.m.): Tortoise’s Cat Neilan and the i’s Paul Waugh (both after 7 p.m.) … Political scientist John Curtice (7.50 p.m.)

The News Agents (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): Former Civil Service Commissioner David Normington.

Tonight With Andrew Marr (LBC, 6 p.m.): Labour MP Chris Bryant.

Farage (GB News, 7 p.m.): Former U.S. President Donald Trump.

Jeremy Kyle Live (TalkTV, 7 p.m.): Former Labour, Change U.K. and Lib Dem MP Luciana Berger … Reform U.K. Leader Richard Tice … Former Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond.

Cross Question with Iain Dale (LBC 8 p.m.): Mayor of the North of Tyne Jamie Driscoll … Equiano Project Director Inaya Folarin Iman … Author Oliver Kamm.

The Take With Sophy Ridge (Sky News, 9 p.m.): Leveling-Up Secretary Michael Gove … Shadow Leveling-Up Minister Alex Norris … SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn.

Peston (9 p.m. on Twitter, 10.45 p.m. on ITV): Michael Gove … Unison General Secretary Christina McAnea … Tory MP Tobias Ellwood … SNP Deputy Westminster Leader Mhairi Black.

First Edition (TalkTV, 10 p.m.): Dai Davies.

REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: TalkTV (10 p.m.): The Sun’s Harry Cole and PoliticsJOE’s Ava Santina … Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): Former Tory MP Justine Greening and Luciana Berger … Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): HuffPost U.K.’s Kevin Schofield and the Mail’s Sarah Vine.

WHERE TO FIND BOOZE IN WESTMINSTER TONIGHT

ANOTHER YEAR: The Onward think tank is celebrating its fifth birthday at the Reform Club, with remarks from a senior Cabinet minister. Doors open from 6.30 p.m. and invites are required. Ties are encouraged but not required, lads.

SERIOUS INVITE NEEDED: Communities Secretary Michael Gove is hosting an Eid al-Fitr reception in Downing Street this evening.

TOMORROW’S WORLD

POLLING STATIONS: Voters in England head to the polls (with voter ID) to cast their ballots in the local elections.

BROKEN BRITAIN: Heathrow security staff begin a week-long strike, just before the bank holiday.

MORE PROFITS OUTRAGE: Fuel giant Shell will reveal its latest financial results.

NORTH OF THE BORDER: SNP Leader Humza Yousaf takes Scottish First Minister’s Questions at noon.

CHATTING DEPORTATIONS: PM Rishi Sunak is expected to meet Rwandan President Paul Kagame.

**On May 31, POLITICO will host a spotlight discussion “How can Europe go from budgetary Wild West to a new fiscal order?”. This spotlight discussion is part of the Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos’ event “A very European puzzle: balancing budgets and promoting growth”. Register today.**

ANY OTHER BUSINESS

PACKED LUNCH OR PARL LUNCH: Subject to change, here are the lunch menus on the estate tomorrow: Bellamy’s: Soup and sandwiches due to staff shortages … The Debate: Feta, Portobello mushroom and pomegranate in pitta bread; chili chicken tacos with corn rice and sour cream; salt cod bites with fried potato and pineapple salsa … Terrace Cafeteria: Coronation quiche; pork feijoada; turkey escalope with pasta Milanese … River Restaurant: Barnsley chop with butternut and potato purée, roasted roots and red currant sauce; tilapia with curried lentil ragout, dahl sauce, raita and poppadoms; vegetarian toad in the hole with green beans and red onion salad.

REILLY NEW FACE: Hanbury’s Neil Reilly is joining the Department for Culture, Media and Sport as a policy adviser next week.

ANOTHER NEW GIG: Chief India trade deal negotiator Harjinder Kang has been appointed a government trade commissioner to South Asia as well as deputy high commissioner for Western India.

WHAT I’VE BEEN READING: This fascinating press freedom day piece in the Wall Street Journal on how Western journalists have navigated the shifting restrictions involved in reporting on Russia over decades. WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich remains detained in Moscow on trumped-up espionage charges.

And for fun: Politicos from London to Paris to Washington DC have been bingewatching the new Netflix series The Diplomat — but how true to life is it? Playbook’s Rosa Prince and our POLITICO U.S. colleague Nahal Toosi take you through it here.

THANKS TO: My editor Rosa Prince, Playbook reporter Noah Keate and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.

SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | London Playbook PM | Playbook Paris | POLITICO Confidential | Sunday Crunch | EU Influence | London Influence | Digital Bridge | China Direct | Berlin Bulletin | D.C. Playbook | D.C. Influence | Global Insider | All our POLITICO Pro policy morning newsletters