Why G7 ministers will struggle to find consensus on Israel-Hamas conflict

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Good morning. Poland’s president last night gave Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki a chance to form a new government, even though his Law and Justice party does not have the votes to secure a parliamentary majority. That delays by at least a couple of weeks the anticipated comeback of Donald Tusk at the head of a liberal pro-EU coalition.

Today, I preview this week’s meeting of G7 foreign ministers divided by the Israel-Hamas war, and our central Europe correspondent reports on yesterday’s local election in Moldova marked by Russia’s influence.

Touchy subject

First there was the EU, then the UN. Now the G7 will probably become the next multilateral organisation to find itself divided by the war between Israel and Hamas.

Context: At last month’s UN General Assembly, France was the only G7 country which supported a resolution calling for an “immediate and sustained” break in the war and condemning “all acts of violence aimed at Palestinian and Israeli civilians”. Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan and the UK abstained; the US voted against.

Foreign ministers from the group will gather in Japan today and tomorrow with the Israel-Hamas war topping the agenda, as civilian casualties in Gaza continue to mount. Russia’s war against Ukraine and economic security will also feature.

All G7 members condemn Hamas and its October 7 terror attack that killed 1,400 Israelis. They all also agree that some form of break in the fighting is needed to get humanitarian supplies into the besieged enclave.

But they are divided on how much pressure to put on Israel to make that happen, and the terms of such a pause, or pauses — as the EU agreed to demand. None have called for a full ceasefire.

“I do not know what the G7 is going to say,” said a senior EU official involved in preparations for the meeting. “Ideas are welcome and all of them are interesting, but nobody knows [what to do].”

“The US has been calling for a ‘humanitarian pause’ . . . We have agreed to call for ‘pauses’,” they said. “Fine. So why don’t we start with the first one?”

There’s likely to be discussions on an EU-supported proposal led by France and Cyprus to use the Mediterranean island as a base for humanitarian supplies to be collected and then shipped by sea to Gaza.

That’s seen as a way to bypass the Rafah land crossing with Egypt that has been slow in processing truck deliveries. But it requires Israeli approval and the installation of a temporary harbour in Gaza, after Israel bombed the physical port as part of its air assault on the territory.

Chart du jour: Anti-Ukraine party

Voter support for Romania’s illiberal Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) is growing ahead of elections next year, with European capitals worrying that Romania could become another EU and Nato country reluctant to support Kyiv in its war against Russia.

Rocky result

Moldova’s pro-EU ruling party has scored a mixed result in local elections that were overshadowed by accusations of Russian meddling leading to the bans of a pro-Russia party and several outlets, writes Raphael Minder.

Context: The local elections in Moldova, which is hoping to start EU accession talks, were closely watched after premier Maia Sandu said that Moldova thwarted an attempted coup by Russia’s Wagner militia.

Sandu’s Action and Solidarity party (PAS) won over 40 per cent in Sunday’s vote, gaining control of hundreds of towns. But it failed to unseat the mayor of the capital Chişinău, Ion Ceban, and trailed other parties in the second-largest city, Balti.

A second round of voting on November 19 will be held in places where no party won an absolute majority.

Moldovan authorities in the run-up to the election accused Russia of interference, and at the last minute banned the pro-Russia Chance party on Friday. Security services found that Chance illegally received Russian money through fugitive Moldovan oligarch Ilan Şor, whose own eponymous party was already outlawed earlier this year.

Last month, Moldova also banned six TV stations and 73 websites for spreading Russian disinformation.

International election observers yesterday criticised the authorities’ use of extraordinary powers under Moldova’s state of emergency, which was issued following Russia’s full-scale invasion of neighbouring Ukraine.

José Ramón Bauzá Díaz, who led a European parliament delegation, said it was “questionable” that the ban of Chance was implemented “less than 36 hours before the actual vote”, though he acknowledged the reports on alleged Russian funding.

Vladimir Prebilič of the Council of Europe delegation said “a new approach is needed if the state of emergency is extended” ahead of presidential elections next year.

The observers also noted that Moldova’s audiovisual watchdog had not found that the banned TV stations were spreading disinformation, and that the freedom of speech restrictions did not appear “proportionate”.

What to watch today

1. G7 foreign ministers meet in Tokyo, Japan.

2. EU ministers for space meet in Sevilla, Spain.

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