WASHINGTON – Former President Donald Trump’s felony conviction could bump his support among a small group of crucial voters in the 2024 presidential election, according to a new poll published on Monday.
A Politico Magazine/Ipsos survey conducted between June 7-9 found that a plurality (40%) of respondents, said the verdict did not impact their odds of voting for Trump and wasn’t an important factor in their electoral decision. But a critical 21% of independents polled said they are now less inclined to support the former president, and his conviction will be an important factor in how they vote.
Though a small percentage of Americans, these independents could have major influence over the results of a close November election between Trump and President Joe Biden if they vote. The race is likely to hinge on tight margins.
Trump was found guilty in late May on 34 counts of falsifying business records to conceal hush money payments made to adult film star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 presidential election.
A majority of Americans surveyed (70%) said in the poll released Monday that they were familiar with the trial and the three other indictments facing the former president in state and federal courts, including on charges that he attempted to steal the 2020 election.
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In the Politico/Ipsos poll, respondents’ views on whether the trial was fair and if Trump was guilty were split along party lines. Only 16% of Republicans polled said they believed Trump was guilty and even fewer (12%) said the trial was impartial. More than 90% of Democrats and 50% of independents said Trump was guilty, and 85% and 46%, respectively, said he received a fair trial.
Of those polled, a whopping 40% also said Trump should be imprisoned for his crimes, including 42% of independents.
With a little more than five months to go until the general election, the race is still very much in flux, and voter opinions could shift. Prior to Trump’s conviction, national and swing state polls showed the former president with a slight advantage over his Democratic opponent, and surveys didn’t show a massive shift in the days after Trump’s verdict.
Trump could be sentenced to as much as 20 years in prison following his conviction, or as little as a financial penalty. His sentencing hearing is set for July 11, just a few days before the start of the Republican National Convention.
A prison sentence wouldn’t bar Trump from running for president, but it could prevent him from voting in the 2024 election based on a patchwork of state laws.
The poll released Monday has a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.2 percentage points
