Good news for fans of breakfast burritos and omelets: egg prices are dropping.
Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the average price for a dozen grade A, large eggs has dropped 32% between January and April, and The Wall Street Journal this week reported that supermarket executives say retail egg prices are set to return to historic averages in the coming months.
Industry experts say the shift comes as the effects of last year’s avian influenza outbreak begin to wane.
“There are now more hens and more eggs on the market. That is, supply has increased, and prices have normalized,” University of California, Davis agricultural economics professor Daniel Sumner said in an email to USA TODAY.
How expensive are eggs?
While grocery prices across the board were up about 11% between January 2022 and January 2023 due to inflation, egg prices jumped 70% in that time frame, according to BLS data.
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Experts at the time pointed to an increase in holiday demand, higher production costs for farmers and an outbreak of bird flu, a highly contagious virus that can be fatal to chickens.
The bird flu outbreak “was more severe and lasted longer than ever before and was worse than anyone thought,” Sumner said.
Prices have since dropped. Wholesale prices are now just over $1 per dozen, down nearly 80% from their peak of $5.30 in December, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
“While the retailer decides how much they’re going to charge for eggs in their store, a drop in wholesale egg prices is usually reflected at the shelf within a few weeks,” Emily Metz, president and CEO of the trade group American Egg Board, said in a statement shared with USA TODAY.
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Why are egg prices dropping?
Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute sector manager Kevin Bergquist said a drop in demand and increased supply is sending prices down.
He noted that consumers tend to buy fewer eggs after Easter, which eases demand. Meanwhile, producers have been replacing hens after last year’s bird flu outbreak. The USDA said there were 387 million egg-laying hens in the U.S. as of May 1, up 5% from the year prior.
“Though the virus is still present, it’s managed to elude commercial layer operations since December, allowing farmers to repopulate a good portion of the production that was lost,” said Karyn Rispoli, senior egg market analyst at Urner Barry.
So will egg prices continue to drop?
Bergquist said prices for egg producers are already “well within a historic average range for eggs at this time of year,” so there could still be lower egg prices for consumers “on the near horizon.”
“It is a question of egg price management by grocers,” he said in an email. “There still could be lower egg prices for the consumer on the near horizon, even if egg prices for producers don’t fall any further this summer season.”
Sumner of UC Davis said that prices should stay moderate unless there’s another avian flu outbreak.
“Egg prices bounce around a little based on corn prices and other cost of demand flux, but there is nothing on the horizon that suggests a big price jump,” he said.
