As the sea continues to toss back the bodies of the victims of yet another migrant boat disaster in the Mediterranean, with hundreds missing and presumed dead after a trawler sank off the Greek coast last week, the European Union is on track to pass a sweeping reform and tightening of its immigration rules. Critics say asylum-seekers’ rights are being put on the back burner once again.
Negotiations are underway in Brussels to give the final green light to a major deal approved by EU interior ministers earlier this month, which includes an accelerated, tougher procedure for some asylum-seekers, looser rules for the expulsion of rejected applicants, and the transfer of around 30,000 asylum-seekers per year from front-line countries such as Italy, Greece, and Spain to other members of the bloc. Inland countries that do not want to participate in the scheme will have to pay 20,000 euros for each person they do not accept, with the money going into a fund managed by the European Commission. While it’s not clear yet how exactly that cash would be spent, it is widely believed it would be used to compensate southern members or to support border control and economic development in the countries of departure.
“Overall, these proposals threaten to worsen, rather than improve, the chronic deficiencies and human rights violations within the EU asylum system,” said Stephanie Pope, an advisor on EU migration policy at Oxfam International.
Just like in the United States, immigration has long been a political hot potato in the EU, with southern front-line countries demanding more help, and other members such as Germany and France complaining that too many asylum-seekers are allowed to roam freely within the bloc, instead of being processed upon arrival as per the rules currently in place. The issue has recently been at the center of some serious diplomatic spats. In May, the Italian foreign minister canceled a scheduled trip to Paris after French Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin accused Italy of being “incapable of dealing with migration pressure” and letting too many undocumented migrants cross into France.
Arrivals remain a far cry from the million-plus recorded at the peak of Europe’s migrant crisis in 2015, but they are on the rise, making tensions worse. According to the U.N. high commissioner for refugees, more than 66,000 people reached Europe between January and May, a nearly 60 percent increase on the same period in 2022. At least 1,159 people have died or gone missing during the journey so far this year.
With the overwhelming majority of migrants arriving in Italy, the new redistribution mechanism between member states is a significant concession to the country’s far-right prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, who was elected last year on the promises of reining in immigration and making Italy’s voice heard in Brussels.
“The fact that the issue has been defined once and for all as a European one, which needs to be tackled together, is already a victory [for Italy],” said Lorena Stella Martini, a Rome-based analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Top officials in Brussels have called the agreement, which put an end to years of gridlock, a “historic step.” The reform currently in the works combines “helping those in need of international protection, preventing irregular departures, fighting criminal smuggling networks, offering pathways for safe and legal migration, and returning those with no right to stay,” said Anitta Hipper, a European Commission spokesperson for home affairs.
But rights advocates are worried. In another concession to Italy, the draft agreement makes it possible to reject asylum-seekers when they can be redirected to a “safe third country” outside the bloc. According to the new rules, migrants must have some kind of connection with the countries they are sent to, but it is ultimately down to the single member states, rather than Brussels, to decide whether the requirements are fulfilled—which critics worry will pave the way for arbitrary transfers to places with dubious track records on human rights.
“The idea behind that simply seems to be: ‘We’re going to make it easier for you to deport people,’” Pope said.
Expelling migrants whose asylum applications have been rejected has long proved challenging, partly due to the lack of cooperation from the countries of origin. According to the European Statistical Office, of the more than 422,400 people ordered to leave in 2022, less than a quarter were actually deported. Now, with many of those who land on Italian shores leaving from Tunisia, many suspect Meloni’s government would use the looser rules to try to send migrants back there in return for financial aid—unfazed by the authoritarian slide underway in the country under President Kais Saied.
Saied is accused of jailing political opponents, undermining the judiciary’s independence, and orchestrating racist campaigns against Black residents. But none of this has stopped European leaders hell-bent on curbing immigration from seeking his favor. Meloni visited him twice this month, accompanied on one occasion by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who said the commission is considering more than 1 billion euros of aid in exchange for better border control and a tougher crackdown on human smuggling.
It wouldn’t be the first time EU authorities shower dodgy regimes with cash in a bid to keep a lid on migrant flows. Italy and the EU are paying tens of millions of euros to Libyan authorities to help them intercept the boats headed for Europe, regardless of the reports of widespread abuses happening in Libyan detention centers. Billions have also gone to Turkey as part of a 2016 agreement to keep Syrian migrants out of the EU, despite their fundamental rights being far from guaranteed there.
The fast-track procedure agreed to by EU interior ministers this month also raises eyebrows. It would entail front-line countries setting up new detention centers at the borders, with a capacity of around 30,000, to quickly process asylum-seekers with lower chances of success, particularly those with nationalities whose average approval rate is below 20 percent.
However, the deal doesn’t mention what kind of resources will be devoted to run the new facilities and guarantee the speedy processing. Many also worry the centers will end up being just like the prison-like camps recently built with EU funding in Greece, which have been hailed as “impeccable” by right-wing Greek leader Kyriakos Mitsotakis but are currently being investigated by the EU’s top watchdog over reports of inmates being given insufficient access to water, medical care, and legal support.
“It’s very unclear to us how this would be an effective model to now roll out across European borders,” Pope said.
While top EU officials are optimistic about the proposals becoming law within a few months, under the EU’s byzantine legislative process, several hurdles remain to be cleared. The plan was approved by a majority of interior ministers, but negotiations are now underway between representatives of national governments, the European Parliament, and the European Commission to reach a common position, which will then need to be voted on again.
Even if the plan does come into force, the implementation of some of its parts faces a bumpy road. The redistribution mechanism between member states was introduced in the teeth of fierce opposition from the hard-right governments of Poland and Hungary, who voted against it. Poland, which is currently hosting a million refugees from Ukraine, has already said it will neither open its doors to more migrants sent by other EU members nor pay any cash contributions.
It would not be the first time a quota system is put in place, hailed as a breakthrough, and then almost completely ignored. A similar scheme to relocate some 160,000 refugees pushed through by EU leaders in 2015 saw less than 35,000 actual transfers, with Hungary and Poland taking no one at all. A voluntary migrant redistribution program agreed to by EU countries last year has so far resulted in the transfer of fewer than 1,500 people, against a target of 8,000.
“It remains to be seen to what extent the solidarity mechanism will actually work,” Martini said.
