(Bloomberg) — Southern states are set to add several more congressional seats at the start of next decade, adding political power to their growing economic clout, according to a new study.
Texas and Florida are on track to add four and three seats respectively after the 2030 US Census, while Georgia and North Carolina are among a half-dozen states set to add one seat each, according to projections by Election Data Services, a political consulting firm. The analysis is based on the Census Bureau’s latest population estimate for 2023.
Out of seven states that are projected to see their seats in the House of Representatives decline, all except California — slated to be the biggest loser, with a drop of four seats — are in the northern half of the country.
The study’s findings reflect long-term trends in domestic migration that accelerated during the pandemic. Those movements are mirrored by shifts in economic output and wealth that have seen southern states contribute a rising share of gross domestic product and job creation.
Read More: A $100 Billion Wealth Migration Tilts US Economy Southward
Projections for the apportionment of House seats due after the 2030 Census show that California — which lost one seat after the last count — may drop to 48 seats. It would still send more lawmakers to Congress than any other state — but its margin over Texas would drop to six seats, from 14 at present, according to Election Data Services.
So-called swing states — key battlegrounds that could go either way — are anticipated to have more influence after the next reshuffle. Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina are all projected to gain one seat, offsetting the potential loss of a seat in Pennsylvania.
Since 1941, the number of seats in the US House of Representatives has been capped at 435, and seats are allocated according to state population.
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