WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING: Portugal’s President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa overnight invited center-right Democratic Alliance leader Luís Montenegro to try to form a minority government, after overseas vote counting confirmed his bloc won the snap election earlier this month.
DRIVING THE DAY: EUCO 
SUMMIT TIME: Amid the dulcet tones of honking tractors, EU leaders will today discuss a critical question: Can Europe stand on its own two feet on defense — and how will it pay to do so?
Defense priorities: With a potential return of Donald Trump to the White House, European leaders increasingly fear a scenario where the U.S. wavers on its security guarantees for Europe — and Russia decides to test just how iron-clad NATO’s collective defense clause is by targeting a member of the alliance. An attack on an EU country could happen as soon as 2026, German intelligence services reportedly warned in an analysis.
Deterrence is costly: But arming up to deter potential attacks will cost a lot. So today, EU leaders will discuss their options.
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Defense bonds: With budgets tight, the idea of issuing another round of joint EU bonds is gaining traction. A south-east alliance led by France, Estonia and Poland has formed in favor of joint borrowing.
The biggest skeptics: Germany and the Netherlands.
Finland is mulling it over: Traditionally described as a member of the “frugals,” Finland’s PM Petteri Orpo unexpectedly left the door open to bonds during a meeting last night with a small group of journalists, including my colleague Jacopo Barigazzi.
Use what you have: “We have to find a way to finance our needs to boost our defense industry to help Ukraine, and we also need European money,” Orpo said. “First we have to use all the instruments we already have,” he added — such as asking the European Investment Bank to bankroll defense projects.
But asked explicitly about EU defense bonds, Orpo said: “This is a very difficult question to me, and I hope that you give time to Finland and maybe some other countries to find a solution.”
NO TIME TO WASTE, SAYS FRANCE: Europe can’t afford to wait until negotiations begin next year over the EU’s next long-term budget to start spending serious money to beef up defenses, argues the French government in a draft letter, seen by my colleague Bjarke Smith-Meyer. “Given the urgency of the situation and the necessarily long industrial timeframe, one euro invested today will be worth ten tomorrow,” reads the letter.
Work in progress: France shared the draft, which could still change, with other countries as it sought to gather more signatures before it’s sent to the EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell.
Now read this: The EUCO summit gives Ursula von der Leyen an opportunity to burnish her defense credentials in her bid to be reelected as Commission chief. My colleagues Barbara Moens and Jacopo Barigazzi have the story.
AGRICULTURE IS ALSO ON THE EUCO AGENDA, with discussions bound to be tense. Diplomats said Poland and France are unhappy with the deal struck with the European Parliament on Ukraine’s trade benefits, and favor additional restrictions on wheat, my colleagues Camille Gijs, Bartosz Brzeziński and Antonia Zimmermann report.
Now read this — Calling out hypocrisy: “On the one hand, you’re an ally and you must help Ukraine in the war,” Mykhailo Podolyak, a top adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, told my colleague Jamie Dettmer on Wednesday. “On the other, you are trying to protect your market in a protectionist way.” Read the full interview here. Separately, Jamie writes that only helping Ukraine win will topple Russian President Vladimir Putin.
TALKING MIDDLE EAST: The EU leaders will also try to get to some semblance of a joint position on the war between Israel and Hamas. The latest draft conclusions for the EUCO summit call for an “immediate humanitarian pause leading to a sustainable ceasefire.”
EU ENLARGEMENT AND REFORM will also be high on the EUCO agenda, with leaders expected to move to open accession negotiations with Bosnia and Herzegovina. And as the Commission just published its proposals for EU reform, leaders are expected to discuss how to make the Union more nimble — though decisions are only expected at a later summit.
Preparing for more members: German Minister of State for Europe Anna Lührmann told Playbook she was glad Ursula von der Leyen had picked up proposals from Germany, France and Portugal on the “gradual integration” of EU candidate countries into the club, as well as the proposal to move away from the unanimity voting requirement that bogs down decisions on foreign and tax policy. “These are essential steps to strengthen the EU’s capacity to act,” Lührmann said, adding that leaders now “must agree on an ambitious roadmap for EU reforms in June” on the basis of those proposals.
FOLLOW ALL THE EUCO ACTION … with POLITICO’s traditional live blog.
ATOMIC LOVE-FEST
BACK TO THE NUCLEAR FUTURE: At least 20 government leaders, 37 political delegations and scores of nuclear execs will gather in Brussels today for the biggest push yet to revitalize atomic power in Europe — and to campaign for EU financing.
The location couldn’t be more symbolic: Leaders will meet at the iconic Atomium, symbol of the unfettered optimism about the civil use of nuclear fission that reigned in the 1950s and 1960s … before exploding costs — and exploding reactors — led to a rethink, my colleague Federica Di Sario reports.
Who’s coming: The Belgian Council presidency, the International Atomic Energy Agency and consultancy BCG are behind the two-day event. France and the U.S. are sending the biggest delegations. Things kick off at 9 a.m. (ahead of the EUCO summit), with Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo and IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi.
Political props: Ursula von der Leyen will also attend, sending a powerful political signal if not of the EU’s endorsement of nuclear technology, then at least of France’s agenda-setting prowess.
Not convinced: Anti-nuclear green organizations are hoping to spoil the atomic feast. Expect to see climate activists near the Atomium holding a banner accusing politicians of telling “nuclear fairy tales.”
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ROAD TO EU ELECTION
KALLAS BACKS VON DER LEYEN: Ursula von der Leyen has “done a wonderful job” as Commission president, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said at an event last night at the Brussels Art and History Museum, where her liberal family launched its own EU election campaign.
Realism or defeatism? “As liberals we are not the ones who are actually getting the president’s job,” Kallas told my colleague Eddy Wax. “EPP’s going to win the elections probably, and [Ursula von der Leyen is] their candidate, and I think if you see what she’s achieved, she’s been quite effective.”
Alas alas Kallas: “It’s hard times for the liberals,” the Estonian PM conceded. “Liberal democracy is under attack everywhere. It’s going to be difficult, definitely.”
Please don’t give us powerful jobs: The liberals are so keen to disavow the faltering Spitzenkandidat process that their trio of top candidates ruled themselves out of top jobs. Instead, French Valérie Hayer, Italian Sandro Gozi, and German Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann have their sights set on winning seats as MEPs and being influential in the Parliament. One person described them as a warm-up act or “pre-band” for the next tranche of liberal candidates.
What’s a real candidate? “We are the faces of the Renew Europe platform, and the Renew Europe campaign, but of course we will have candidates for the top jobs,” Hayer said. Gozi said: “Those who are running for [top] jobs are not even candidates. To my knowledge, Ursula von der Leyen is not running in the European elections, to my knowledge Nicolas Schmit is not running in the European elections. They are fiction-candidates. We are real candidates.” Meanwhile, Strack-Zimmermann can’t be the Commission president because under the German government coalition agreement if von der Leyen doesn’t get the nod, the commissioner post goes to the Greens.
Don’t count your chicks! Kallas’ own name was circulating at the event as the liberals’ strongest card to get a top EU job after June. “I heard this as well but I haven’t heard anything else but that I am the prime minister of Estonia right now,” she said. “After the election we count the chicks, we say this in Estonian — like how many eggs turn into chicks,” she said. More on the Liberals’ campaign here by Elisa Braun and Eddy Wax.
MIGRATION SITUATION: Migration policy won’t define the EU election, says a poll-backed report out this morning from the European Council on Foreign Relations. Just 15 percent of respondents said they saw immigration as the leading crisis of the past decade.
Interesting divide: Only respondents in Germany and Austria cited immigration as a lead concern. But other EU countries such as Romania, Italy, Spain, Hungary and Greece saw emigration as equally or more important.
The far right is divided, and therefore unlikely to define the EU agenda beyond June, argue the authors of the report, pointing to fundamental divisions on key issues such as Russia’s war on Ukraine and EU enlargement.
Warning to VDL — Don’t campaign on your track record: “European leaders may be tempted to highlight the European Commission’s record on Covid-19, the Green New Deal, and support for Ukraine,” the authors write. “But its successful performance on these crises is not recognised by many voters, so a campaign based on the current European Commission’s record could backfire.”
Speaking of Germans: Some 66 percent of them are highly interested in the EU election, according to polling by the Böll Stiftung, which is close to the Greens. Interestingly, far-right AfD supporters are the most disinterested — which could be a boon for other parties.
On Germans’ priorities for the election, the poll shows similar results as the ECFR: Migration comes first, followed by security and defense. On EU support for Ukraine, more than 60 percent are in favor of more (41.8 percent) or for the level to remain unchanged (18.3 percent). Executive summary in English here.
MAGA, EUROPE STYLE
MAGA GROUP LAUNCHES CAMPAIGN AGAINST EU’S ‘DANGEROUS AGENDA’: Former Trump officials who now work in consulting are launching an organization seeking to “save Western civilization by shining a light on the harmful policies coming out of the European Union.”
What are those ‘harmful policies’ exactly? According to the group’s campaign video, “Medicare for all,” “health care for illegal immigrants,” phasing out fossil fuels, or “banning gas-powered cars” — in other words, science-based policy-making.
“The only way to stop these catastrophic ideas from destroying America and Western Civilization as we know it is by cutting them off at their source,” the new group says. Asked how it plans to do that, a person familiar with the effort said the group “plans to deploy aggressive earned and paid media campaigns on both sides of the Atlantic to better educate citizens on the dangerous left-wing ideas coming out of the EU.”
Reminder: The U.S. has a life expectancy at birth of 76 years, compared to 81-83 in Western European countries, according to the OECD.
Show me the money: Asked who was financing the campaign, a source familiar with the plans told Playbook there was no Russian funding, but did not comment on whether Hungarian money was behind the effort.
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IN OTHER NEWS
COLLEGE OF EUROPE FIRES PROF OVER SEXUAL HARASSMENT INVESTIGATION: The College of Europe in Bruges has terminated professor Olivier Costa’s contract following an investigation by the university into allegations of sexual harassment, my colleagues Eddy Wax and Barbara Moens scooped overnight. Read the whole story here. POLITICO was first to report on the allegations in February.
FRENCH SENATORS TRY TO SHOOT DOWN EU-CANADA DEAL: France’s upper chamber is having its chance today to reject the ratification of the EU-Canada trade deal. The vote was put on the Senate agenda by the Communist group to give senators an opportunity to kill the trade deal — something they’ve been trying to do for years.
VARADKAR OUT: Ireland’s Leo Varadkar announced he’s resigning as Fine Gael leader immediately and as Taoiseach next month. Who could replace him as Irish PM? Former Foreign Minister Simon Coveney ruled himself out, with the front-runners looking like young gun Simon Harris and potentially Eurogroup chief Paschal Donohoe, Suzanne Lynch writes in to report. Shawn Pogatchnik takes a look at the runners and riders.
Will there be a new election? Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin and Green Party leader Eamon Ryan insisted the three-party coalition with would continue with whoever becomes the new Fine Gael leader as Taoiseach. More in the Irish Times.
LABOUR WANTS UK BACK IN THE ROOM: David Lammy, the man hoping to be Britain’s next foreign secretary, told POLITICO’s Power Play podcast that the U.K. will be “back in the room” with the EU on key areas if Labour wins the upcoming election.
AGENDA
— European Council Summit. Arrivals and doorsteps from 1 p.m. Watch. POLITICO’s live blog.
— Nuclear Energy Summit. Arrivals and doorsteps at 9 a.m. … opening remarks by Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo and Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency Rafael Grossi and Nuclear Energy Summit Declaration at 9:45 a.m. … press conference at noon. Agenda. Watch.
— European Parliament President Roberta Metsola meets U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres at 10 a.m.
— Signature of a Memorandum of Understanding between the EU and Norway on sustainable land-based raw materials and battery value chains with Commission Executive Vice President Maroš Šefčovič and Norwegian Trade and Industry Minister Jan Christian Vestre at 7:15 p.m. Watch.
— NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg meets Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob … meets Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa. Press conference with Golob at 9:30 a.m. Watch.
— Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton meets with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre.
— Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson delivers a keynote speech at “Energy and Climate Governance in Ukraine — Towards Green Rebuilding” event … meets with U.K. Minister for Nuclear and Renewables Andrew Bowie.
— Environment Commissioner Virginijus Sinkevičius is in Ecuador; meets with Environment Minister Sade Fritschi.
— EESC plenary. Jobs and Social Rights Commissioner Nicolas Schmit and Belgian Pensions Minister Karine Lalieux to participate. Watch.
— European Citizens Summit kicks off in Brussels. Details.
**Do you want to know more about rare diseases and how the EU can address the gaps in the diagnosis journey of patients across member states? Tune in at POLITICO Live’s virtual event “Is Europe on track to be a world leader in rare diseases?” happening on April 12 at 9:30 a.m. Register online today!**
BRUSSELS CORNER
WEATHER: High of 14C, cloudy.
EUCO DISRUPTIONS: The European Quarter will be locked down for the EUCO summit today and Friday. Bus lines 12, 21, 56, 60 and 79 won’t stop at Schuman station.
UKRAINE PROTEST: The Promote Ukraine NGO will protest at Schuman roundabout at 10 a.m., calling on EU leaders to deliver on their promises to help Ukraine defend itself.
EASTER TRAM TRAFFIC DISRUPTED: Trams 3, 4, 25 and 55 will be interrupted during the Easter holidays from 9 p.m. March 29 until end of service April 1 because of the works between Porte de Hal and Thomas. Tram 3 will be interrupted between Masui and Porte De Hal, tram 4 between Gare du Nord and Porte de Hal, and trams 25 and 55 will be diverted from Liedts to Masui. Replacement buses will operate between these stops.
DIRECT TRAIN TO PRAGUE: The European Sleeper night train, which last year for the first time traveled from Brussels to Berlin, will from Monday March 25 introduce new stops in Dresden, Bad Schandau, Děčín, Ústí nad Labem, before terminating in Prague. The total journey from Brussels to Prague will take about 14 hours, departing around 7:30 p.m. and arriving around 11 a.m.
PILOT STRIKE AVERTED: Brussels Airlines pilots have called off their March 23-27 strike, unions announced on Tuesday, after reaching a tentative deal with management.
ANTIRACISM AND ANTISEMITISM: To mark the International Day for the Elimination of Racial Discrimination today, the city of Brussels is organizing various events throughout the week. On Sunday, there will be guided tours through anti-racist glasses in Brussels.
QATARGATE DOCUMENTARY: ARTE’s documentary on the Qatargate investigation is out, featuring POLITICO reporters Elisa Braun and Eddy Wax. Watch it here.
TAKE OUT YOUR TRASH (APPROPRIATELY): Bruxelles-Propreté, the public organization in charge of waste collection in the city, is organizing a “cleanliness triathlon” from March 20 until May 27, seeking to discourage Brussels residents from leaving their garbage bags on the streets outside permitted times. The agency plans to increase awareness of the waste collection calendars and punish offenders.
ANTWERP STILL COCAINE KING: For the second year in a row, Antwerp has topped the list of cocaine consumers in Europe.
FESTIVAL: The BAM! Brain & Music festival is on until March 23, exploring the impact of music on the brain, through lectures and concerts.
PUKKELPOP: Pukkelpop, one of Belgium’s largest music festivals, has announced over 30 new names on the line-up. Tickets are almost sold out.
FOOD REVIEW: POLITICO’s Sonya Diehn tried Arepa’s Factory, a Venezuelan bistro in the Ravenstein Gallery. Read her review.
BIRTHDAYS: MEPs Dimitrios Papadimoulis, Giuseppe Ferrandino and Angel Dzhambazki; Former MEP Pál Csáky; Former Daily Telegraph correspondent Alex Spillius; RAND Europe’s Stijn Hoorens. The International Day for the Elimination of Racial Discrimination.
THANKS to Jacopo Barigazzi, Barbara Moens, Federica Di Sario, Gregorio Sorgi, Eddy Wax, Giorgio Leali, Camille Gijs, Federica Di Sario, Playbook reporter Ketrin Jochecová and producer Seb Starcevic.
**A message from Wise: Last year, European wallets took a €30 billion hit from sneaky hidden fees in cross-border transactions. Why? Payment providers hide part of their fees in inflated exchange rates. There is an asymmetry of information, behind which hides a market abuse position that only regulation can remedy. Luckily, the Payment Services Regulation is our chance to finally end these hidden fees. That is – if and only if – policymakers maintain strong transparency rules throughout the EU legislative process. The Payment Services Regulation should require payment services providers to transparently disclose their exchange rate markups upfront, calculated over a uniform benchmark rate. Ideally, customers would see this markup as a fee in monetary amount, with their provider using a live mid-market exchange rate as the benchmark for calculating that markup. Transparency isn’t just a buzzword; it’s the key to unlocking fair competition and lower prices for all. Read more: wise.com/campaign/hidden-fees-eu.**
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