How should the EU respond to Azerbaijan’s assault on Nagorno-Karabakh?

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Good morning. A scoop to start: The European Commission is considering defending Poland, Slovakia and Hungary against a Ukrainian lawsuit filed after the countries imposed unilateral bans on its grain exports, despite those bans breaching EU regulations and the commission’s own decision.

Today, I explain why Azerbaijan’s blitz attack on Nagorno-Karabakh this week is a concern for the EU, while Laura has news of research suggesting Brussels is using its development aid to bring down migration numbers instead of fighting poverty.

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Azerbaijan claimed victory yesterday after a brutal, lightning assault on the majority-Armenian region of Nagorno-Karabakh, forcing its authorities to agree a ceasefire deal that in effect recognises Baku’s control.

That is a problem for Brussels.

Context: Former Soviet republics Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought intermittently over Nagorno-Karabakh since the collapse of the USSR. A 2020 war saw Azerbaijan seize vast amounts of territory and since then it has demanded unfettered control of the region and its 120,000 people.

Brussels condemned the 24-hour assault, which killed dozens and injured hundreds more and has prompted thousands of Armenian residents to seek evacuation amid fears of ethnic cleansing. But it puts the EU in a bind regarding what to do next.

Despite Azerbaijan being an autocracy accused of widespread human rights violations, the EU has sought to cosy up to it in recent years, most notably to buy more of its gas (to replace the supplies it previously bought from Russia, also an autocracy accused of widespread human rights violations).

The EU has a civilian mission on the ground aimed at stabilising the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia, while Charles Michel, EU council president, has been heavily involved in diplomatic efforts to avert conflict.

Michel was due to sit down with the leaders of both countries during the European Political Community summit in Granada next month to find an agreement over Nagorno-Karabakh’s status. It seems Baku decided it would rather take matters into its own hands.

In response to the military assault, representatives from the European parliament called for Brussels to “fundamentally reconsider the EU’s relations with Azerbaijan” and think about sanctions against Baku.

Such a step appears unlikely, for now. But few will be looking forward to the welcome handshakes and family photo in Granada, a summit that was supposed to demonstrate the unity of the EU’s periphery and opposition to military aggression by states against their neighbours.

Chart du jour: Water marks

The Rhine, Germany’s longest river, is increasingly plagued by low water levels over summer because of climate change. This is prompting shipping companies to consider smaller vessels — and a controversial project to deepen the Rhine.

Paid to stay

The EU is using aid to countries such as Tunisia or Libya as leverage to manage migration numbers, according to a new report published today.

Non-profit Oxfam found that the EU is increasingly putting money that should go towards reducing poverty and promoting development towards measures that curb migration and potentially violate human rights, writes Laura Dubois.

Context: The rise in the number of people arriving in Europe has prompted calls for more stringent measures to bring them down. The EU has come under fire for agreeing to send money to Tunisia to prop up its budget and prevent departures from its shores to Europe, despite accusations of human rights abuses.

Oxfam says that the one-third of EU aid programmes focusing on migration in Tunisia, Libya and Niger could violate international rules on aid drawn up by the OECD, to which most EU aid programmes should adhere.

“Development co-operation should not be used as a vehicle to promote the provider’s domestic migration agenda,” the OECD wrote in June. “The promotion of economic development and welfare of a developing country must come before any other goals.”

“They are using aid to stop migration instead of stopping poverty, to boost borders and fortress Europe rather than boosting the economy of partner countries,” Oxfam’s Stephanie Pope said.

For instance, according to the report, the EU funds the coastguard in Libya, which has been accused by the UN of collaborating with human traffickers and contributing to human rights abuses.

The European Commission has repeatedly said that money paid out from the EU budget is always tied to the respect of human rights, but human rights organisations and the EU ombudsman have questioned how that can be ensured.

What to watch today

1. EU council president Charles Michel gives a speech at the UN general assembly in New York.

2. EU transport ministers meet in Barcelona.

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Yesterday’s newsletter included a map that wrongly depicted Navarre as part of the Basque country, two autonomous communities of Spain. Sorry for the error.