So, the tide continues to turn in Russia’s favor. And the easier option of defeating Putin through Ukraine is beginning to close.
But it’s not just Russia. It’s China that actually poses the more strategic, epoch-defining challenge.
Both countries have a disdain for the West, reject Western standards and want to see the West weakened. Both dislike international scrutiny into their domestic affairs, and both feel threatened by the rules-based order.
However, China has bigger plans. It seeks global leadership, economic supremacy, a technological edge, as well as the desire to assert its territorial and regional claims in the South China Sea and over Taiwan. “It is time for us to take center stage in the world and to make a greater contribution to humankind,” said Chinese President Xi Jinping. And to that end, China employs a multifaceted strategy that includes economic projects like the Belt and Road Initiative, as well as a strong military posture.
Much like Putin, Xi’s tactics probe the soft underbelly of Western vulnerability. A new Beijing-Moscow-Tehran axis now presents a united front in global affairs, standing in opposition to Western policies and influence.
Furthermore, they now have a global institution too — the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation — created by Putin and Xi in 2001. The world’s largest regional organization in terms of geographic scope and population, it covers approximately 80 percent of Eurasia and 40 percent of the world population, and as of 2021, its combined GDP was around 20 percent of global GDP. With India, Iran and 20 other members attending, it is, essentially, the anti-West.
On current trajectory, the world is thus set to splinter into two spheres of competing interests. The world turned upside down while we were distracted by complacency. And as Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine contributed to U.K. inflation reaching double figures, it underlined just how much our economic security depends on our national security, and vice versa.
Now, as Britain moves toward a war footing, our growing anxiety over the threat of wider conflict is matched by the expectation that we will, once again, need to upgrade our defense architecture — and be among the first to stand in harm’s way.
