UK exit poll; Investors warm to likely Labour win as Rupert Murdoch’s Sun paper backs Keir Starmer; Tories may get boost from higher turnout

If voting goes as the polls suggest, a large number of Conservative ministers could lose their seats – possibly even Prime Minister Rishi Sunak himself in the seat of Richmond and Northallerton in Yorkshire.

The result of Sunak’s seat should be known at about 4am local time.

Labour leader Keir Starmer is unlikely to lose his London seat of Holborn and St Pancras when it is expected to be declared at about 4.15am local time. But if Labour doesn’t win he has said he will resign as leader. Starmer is expected to give a short speech at the declaration of the result.

The first seat could be declared at about 11:30pm. At the last election it was a race between perennial soccer rivals and neighbours Newcastle and Sunderland (Newcastle won). But this year London’s Daily Telegraph newspaper says the first result is likely to be from Blyth and Ashington, a new constituency where veteran Labour MP Ian Lavery is seeking re-election.

9am (12am UK)

Conservative Party chairman Richard Holden will find out whether he has done enough to win his new seat of Basildon and Billericay.

10am (1am UK)

The first results from Scotland will give an indication of whether the Labour Party is making inroads against the majority Scottish Nationalist Party. A swing of 10 per cent in Scotland to Labour could deliver 15 seats to Keir Starmer.

11am (2am UK)

Kemi Badenoch, the small c conservative tipped as a contender to replace Rishi Sunak if the Tories lose, is expected to find out whether she held on to the seat of North West Essex.

The results in Barnley and Redcar, two traditionally Labour seats that turned blue in the last election, will give a good indication of who might form government.

Another constituency to watch is Rochdale, where Workers’ Party candidate George Galloway shocked Westminster by winning a by-election in February with a campaign heavily focused on Gaza. Labour, however, is hopeful that it can win the seat back, writes The Telegraph.

Noon (3am UK)

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will find out his fate in the new constituency of Godalming and Ash. He faces a challenge from the Liberal Democrats.

Cabinet ministers Gillian Keegan, Claire Coutinho, Alex Chalk, Simon Hart and Penny Mordaunt will also find out whether they have done enough to win re-election. Mordaunt, the Leader of the Commons, is touted as a potential future Tory leader but faces a tight battle in her Portsmouth North constituency.

Other top Tories whose results we can expect around this time include Sir Iain Duncan Smith, the former leader, and Robert Jenrick, a former immigration minister.

While Labour is projected to perform well nationally, its shadow culture secretary Thangam Debbonaire faces a tense moment as the Greens seek to deliver an upset in her Bristol Central constituency.

Speaking of upsets, Jeremy Corbyn, the former Labour leader, will find out how he has fared against his old party as he stands as an independent in Islington North. And Sir Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat leader, will learn how he has performed in Kingston and Surbiton.

1pm (4am UK)

Apart from Sunak and Starmer, the surge of Reform UK has been one of the major stories of this election. Party leader Nigel Farage will hope he has won a seat in the Commons at the eighth time of trying as the result comes in for Clacton, in Essex outside London. Meanwhile Richard Tice, the Reform chairman, is hoping to unseat former Tory minister Matt Warman by the seaside in Boston and Skegness.

Shabana Mahmood and Jess Phillips, two Labour MPs in Birmingham, have faced a backlash from their voters over the party’s stance on Gaza, and the results in those constituencies will reveal how independent pro-Palestinian candidates have fared.

How the Liberal Democrats have fared will be increasingly obvious from the results in North East Somerset and Hanham, currently held by Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, and Surrey Heath, which was Michael Gove’s seat before the Housing Secretary stood down shortly after Mr Sunak called the election.

2pm (5am UK)

The overall national result should become very clear by this point but there is still scope for surprises.

After an ill-tempered battle with fellow veteran Luke Thomas, the Labour candidate, Johnny Mercer, the veterans’ minister, will learn whether he still has the support of his constituents in Plymouth Moor View.

And South West Norfolk has traditionally been among the safest Tory seats but it remains to be seen whether Liz Truss, the former prime minister, will be able to weather the storm.

3pm (6am UK)

It is estimated that the final results will pour in between 6am and 7am as dawn breaks over Britain.

The Liberal Democrats have the potential to pull off a final upset in the true blue Tory heartland of Wokingham, which until this election was represented by Sir John Redwood, the head of the No 10 policy unit under Margaret Thatcher.