CBOT wheat futures edged higher with the most active contract rising more than 2% this morning due to increasing tensions in the Black Sea region following the Ukrainian attack on Russian ships. According to recent updates about the Ukraine and Russia conflict, Ukrainian drone strikes near the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, a key hub for Russian grain and oil shipments, led to the closure of the port for several hours. The move was in retaliation for the numerous attacks by Russia on Ukrainian ports. Meanwhile, the latest reports from the Ukrainian Agriculture Ministry showed that the nation’s grain shipments rose 29% YoY to 2.4mt as of 4 August. The exports included around 1.2mt of corn (- 3.7% YoY), whilst wheat shipments surged twofold against last year and stood at 880kt.
The French agriculture ministry’s initial estimates for the season show that the nation’s corn harvest for the year is expected to rise to 11.2mt, compared to 10.9mt a year ago. Meanwhile, soft-wheat crop output is now seen slightly higher at 35.6mt, compared to the July estimate of 35mt. Despite the drop in planting, the improvement in harvest projections reflects the better yield after the drought-stricken 2022 which damaged crops.
In its latest report, the European Commission reported the EU’s soft wheat exports for the ongoing season at 2.35mt this year as of 30 July, down from 2.7mt reported in a similar period a year ago. The major destinations for these shipments were Morocco, Algeria, and South Africa. The commission added that the nation’s corn imports in a similar period stood at 1.17mt, down 28% compared to a year ago.
The latest CFTC data show that money managers reduced their net bullish bets in CBOT corn by 9,862 lots to 16,741 lots as of 1 August. The fall was led by an increase in gross shorts by 25,065 lots, taking the total to 168,281 lots. Similarly, speculators decreased their net bullish bets in soybean by 26,246 lots to 94,493 lots. The move was fueled by a drop in gross longs by 22,583 lots, taking the total gross longs to 123,815 lots. Meanwhile, the net speculative short positions in CBOT wheat rose by 10,096 lots to 50,428 lots over the last reporting week following an increase in gross shorts.
First published on Think.ing.com .
