The recent European Union (EU) parliamentary elections have sent shockwaves through the world of sustainable investing. With a significant shift towards right-wing and nationalist parties, the future of the EU’s ambitious environmental, social, and governance (ESG) agenda has been called into question. As investors grapple with the implications of this political upheaval, the fate of ESG funds hangs in the balance, raising concerns about the long-term viability of green investing across the continent.
The EU parliamentary elections saw a marked increase in support for right-wing and Eurosceptic parties, with notable gains in countries like Germany, France, and Italy. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, for instance, recorded its best-ever results, while Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) party emerged as the single largest delegation in the new European Parliament. This political shift has significant implications for the EU’s climate and sustainability policies.
The Green Wave Recedes
The 2019 EU elections were hailed as a “green wave,” with the Greens making significant gains and paving the way for the European Green Deal.
However, this time around, the Greens have suffered heavy losses, with their faction in the European Parliament dropping from fourth to sixth place. This reversal of fortune reflects a growing disenchantment among voters with the perceived costs and inconveniences associated with the green transition.
Populist Pushback
The rise of populist and nationalist parties has brought with it a renewed scepticism towards the EU’s ambitious climate agenda. These parties have been vocal in their criticism of policies such as the 2035 ban on new petrol and diesel cars, which they view as an ideological “folly” that must be corrected.
The political pressure to water down or delay such measures is expected to intensify, as these parties seek to appease their constituencies and address their concerns about the economic impact of environmental regulations.
The Uncertain Future of the EU’s Green Deal
The shift in the political landscape has cast a shadow over the future of the EU’s Green Deal, a comprehensive set of policies aimed at achieving climate neutrality by 2050. With the new European Parliament and Commission, the path forward for this ambitious plan has become increasingly uncertain.
The increased presence of right-wing and Eurosceptic parties in the European Parliament is likely to make it more challenging to pass new climate and environmental legislation. These parties have expressed a desire to reform the EU, reducing its power and influence, which could hinder the bloc’s ability to implement its green agenda effectively.
While a complete reversal of the EU’s existing climate policies is considered unlikely, due to their legal and practical implementation, there are concerns that certain measures may be weakened or delayed. The 2035 ban on new petrol and diesel cars, for instance, has already faced criticism from some political leaders, and could be a target for potential rollbacks or revisions.
As the political focus shifts away from climate change and towards issues like immigration, economic woes, and struggling industries, the rhetoric around the EU’s green agenda may also change. Instead of emphasising the environmental benefits, the emphasis may shift towards the industrial and economic competitiveness aspects of sustainability, with less emphasis on the “green” and “clean” branding.
The Impact on Businesses and Investors
The political shifts in the EU have far-reaching implications for businesses and investors operating in the region, particularly those involved in the green economy.
The uncertainty surrounding the EU’s climate policies creates a challenging environment for businesses planning long-term investments and strategies. Companies may be hesitant to commit significant resources to green projects or technologies, fearing that the regulatory landscape could shift, rendering their investments less valuable or even obsolete.
The recent outflow of capital from ESG funds, both in the EU and globally, reflects a growing scepticism among investors about the long-term viability of sustainable investing. If the EU’s green agenda faces significant setbacks or delays, this could further erode investor confidence in the sector, making it more difficult for companies to access the capital they need to fund their sustainability initiatives.
As the political focus shifts, certain industries may see their priorities change as well. For example, the renewable energy sector, which has been a key beneficiary of the EU’s green policies, may face headwinds if the political will to support it wanes. Conversely, industries like oil and gas, which have been under pressure to transition, may see a temporary reprieve if the political climate becomes less favourable to environmental regulations.
Navigating the Uncertain Landscape
In the face of this political upheaval, businesses and investors must adapt their strategies to navigate the uncertain landscape.
Investors may need to diversify their portfolios to mitigate the risks associated with the changing political landscape. This could involve allocating a portion of their assets to more traditional sectors or industries that may be less affected by the shifts in EU politics.
Businesses and industry associations should actively engage with policymakers to advocate for the continued support of the EU’s green agenda. By highlighting the economic and social benefits of sustainability, they can work to ensure that the political shifts do not entirely derail the progress that has been made.
Companies must also prioritise building resilience and adaptability within their operations. This may involve developing contingency plans, exploring alternative supply chains, and investing in technologies that can withstand potential policy changes or market shifts.
The Road Ahead
The outcome of the EU parliamentary elections has undoubtedly cast a cloud of uncertainty over the future of the bloc’s environmental and sustainability policies. However, the path forward is not entirely clear, and the long-term implications will depend on the actions of policymakers, businesses, and investors.
As the new European Parliament and Commission take shape, it will be important to monitor their approach to climate and sustainability issues. While the political landscape has shifted, the underlying challenges posed by climate change remain, and the need for concerted action has never been more pressing.
Ultimately, the future of ESG investing in the EU will hinge on the ability of all stakeholders to navigate this uncertain terrain, find common ground, and work towards a sustainable and prosperous future for the continent and the world at large.
