Key Insights
- The projected fair value for Clorox is US$209 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Clorox is estimated to be 35% undervalued based on current share price of US$136
- The US$155 analyst price target for CLX is 26% less than our estimate of fair value
Does the September share price for The Clorox Company (NYSE:CLX) reflect what it’s really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock’s intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today’s value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it’s not too difficult to follow, as you’ll see from our example!
We generally believe that a company’s value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for Clorox
Is Clorox Fairly Valued?
We’re using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
| Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$741.0m | US$814.6m | US$888.0m | US$1.00b | US$1.08b | US$1.13b | US$1.18b | US$1.23b | US$1.27b | US$1.30b |
| Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x4 | Analyst x5 | Analyst x3 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 5.29% | Est @ 4.35% | Est @ 3.69% | Est @ 3.23% | Est @ 2.90% |
| Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.2% | US$698 | US$723 | US$742 | US$788 | US$798 | US$792 | US$778 | US$760 | US$739 | US$717 |
(“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$7.5b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today’s value at a cost of equity of 6.2%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$1.3b× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (6.2%– 2.2%) = US$33b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$33b÷ ( 1 + 6.2%)10= US$18b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$26b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$136, the company appears quite good value at a 35% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope – move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
Important Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company’s future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at Clorox as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 6.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Clorox
- Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
- Earnings declined over the past year.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Household Products market.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
- Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
- Dividends are not covered by earnings.
- Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the American market.
Next Steps:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won’t be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Clorox, we’ve compiled three further items you should consider:
- Risks: As an example, we’ve found 4 warning signs for Clorox that you need to consider before investing here.
- Future Earnings: How does CLX’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Valuation is complex, but we’re helping make it simple.
Find out whether Clorox is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
