More US aid for Ukraine’s war effort this year is hanging by a thread as Donald Trump and Mike Johnson, the Republican Speaker of the House, throw cold water on a potential deal in Congress linking more funding for Kyiv with stricter controls on immigration.
For weeks, negotiators in the Senate have tried to craft a bipartisan agreement on stricter measures at the southern border with Mexico, which Republicans had demanded in exchange for their support for more security assistance to Ukraine.
But Trump, who wants to make immigration central to his attacks on President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential race, has opposed a compromise deal. His domination of the Republican primary this year has also increased his influence over the party, making it harder for lawmakers to accept a compromise.
“We need a Strong, Powerful, and essentially ‘PERFECT’ Border and, unless we get that, we are better off not making a Deal, even if that pushes our Country to temporarily ‘close up’ for a while,” Trump posted on Truth Social on Thursday evening.
“I don’t think any more aid is going to become available any time soon given the chaos within the Republican party,” said Jim Manley, a former senior Democratic aide in the Senate.
Johnson also suggested any potential Senate deal would not make it past the House, in a letter to colleagues on Friday. “If rumors about the contents of the draft proposal are true, it would have been dead on arrival in the House anyway,” he wrote.
He said a House panel would move forward next week with articles of impeachment against Homeland Security secretary Alejandro Mayorkas over the border crisis — and hold a vote on the House floor “as soon as possible thereafter”. Even if the House impeachment vote does succeed, however, it is highly unlikely that a Democratic-controlled Senate would convict Mayorkas.
On Wednesday, Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell, previously a champion of Ukraine aid, told a closed-door meeting of lawmakers that the “politics have changed” around a pact over the border and more funding for Kyiv.
McConnell referred to Trump as “the nominee” and said Republicans would not want to “undermine him”, according to an account of the meeting from Punchbowl News, which first reported his comments.
“Immigration may be the most fraught issue in Congress, which is why pairing it with something Democrats desperately want made a lot of sense,” said Brian McGuire, McConnell’s former chief of staff who now works for lobby group Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck.
“But if enough members think doing nothing is preferable to doing something, then that’s what we’ll get,” McGuire added.
Chris Murphy, a Democratic senator from Connecticut, and James Lankford, a Republican senator from Oklahoma, who have been leading negotiations, have not abandoned their effort. Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer said they would keep working through the weekend to find agreement.
Murphy expressed concerns to reporters on Thursday about Trump’s influence. “I would hope that one person isn’t so powerful inside the Republican party to hand Ukraine to Vladimir Putin,” he said.
Mark Warner, a Democratic senator from Virginia, wrote on X: “If we don’t honor our commitment to Ukraine, there’s not a single nation — friend or foe — that will fully trust us again.”
But even if the senators strike a deal despite Trump’s pressure, it is not clear that Johnson would hold a vote in the lower chamber of Congress, another possible obstacle on the horizon.
Republicans see immigration as one of their most effective political weapons in 2024 on the back of a surge in immigrants at the southern border that has caused a backlash in many conservative areas but also in some cities and suburban areas controlled by Democrats.
“It’s looking more unlikely that Ukraine aid gets done. If it doesn’t get done now, the next window of opportunity is going to be after the election in November,” said Jon Lieber, managing director at the Eurasia Group. “But even then you still have Republicans controlling the House who don’t care about this.”
The US sent its last package of lethal aid to Ukraine from its stockpiles in December but has been unable to send more since congressional funds have run out. It has continued sending items obliged under longer-term contracts, but that does not meet Ukraine’s immediate needs, US defence officials said.
Celeste Wallander, the Pentagon’s top official overseeing international security affairs, said this week that Ukrainian officials had relayed concerns from front-line troops that ammunition was running low.
“They believe that units do not have the stocks and the stores of ammunition that they require, and that is one of the reasons we have been focusing on the need to answer Congress’s questions so that they are able to move forward on a decision to pass the supplemental,” Wallander said, referring to the White House’s funding request to Congress.
“What we do matters, what we say matters and [the world is] watching closely whether or not the United States can deliver,” John Kirby, spokesperson for the White House National Security Council, told reporters on Thursday.
With the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion nearing, Ukraine’s military has abandoned hopes of a swift military victory and is instead preparing for a drawn-out war. Western officials say they see little chance that either Russia or Ukraine will make a significant breakthrough in the conflict this year.
If the congressional border talks fail, there could be a last-gasp attempt to include Ukraine aid in legislation to keep the government funded with deadlines coming up in March and September.
“The legislative path is murky for sure but I’d never say never given the stakes involved on both issues,” said McGuire.
But many Republicans are increasingly dismissive of the merits of Ukraine aid. “We’re borrowing money from other countries, from our grandchildren to help pay for this war in Ukraine,” Roger Marshall, a Republican senator from Kansas, told Fox Business on Thursday.
“There’s really been no movement in the past year. Two hundred thousand people have died. Let’s focus on a peace treaty over there,” he said.
Other Republican supporters of Ukraine aid are angry.
“I think the border is a very important issue for Donald Trump. And the fact that he would communicate to Republican senators and congresspeople that he doesn’t want us to solve the border problem because he wants to blame Biden for it is really appalling,” Mitt Romney, the Utah Republican senator, said on Thursday.
