Ukraine-Russia war latest: Heavy fighting around key eastern cities; Russia ‘sustaining nearly 900 casualties per day’ | World News

By Sean Bell, military analyst

Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron was in Kyiv this week to reiterate UK support to Ukraine.  

Meeting with President Zelenskyy, Lord Cameron detailed how the uplift in defence spending announced by Rishi Sunak last week, including £3bn multi-year funding for Ukraine and the largest ever donation of military equipment, would help ensure Ukraine has what it needs to win.  

The donation of military equipment would include the provision of precision-guided bombs, and air defence missiles and equipment for 100 mobile air defence teams to enable Ukraine to shoot down Russia’s drones and missiles.

However, Lord Cameron also made an important announcement that was less widely reported – that it was up to Kyiv to decide how these weapons were to be used.  

Although the West was shocked at Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine in February 2022, Ukraine is not a member of NATO and the West was reluctant to provide overt support to Ukraine for fear of precipitating a direct NATO confrontation with Russia.  

However, the UK has consistently been “forward-leaning” in providing military support to Ukraine, initially through the provision of anti-tank weapons, then main battle tanks – Challenger II – before more recently providing long-range Storm Shadow missiles.  

Although the US has also provided ATACMS missiles, it has consistently advised that Ukraine is not to use any Western-provided weapons to attack targets on Russian soil.

Lord Cameron’s announcement that this limitation may have been lifted for UK-supplied weapons could be evidence of increasing Western concern over the current tide of the war.  

Russia’s military is on the offensive on the frontline – where it is capitalising on Ukraine’s current shortage of vital weapons and ammunition to push forward.  

If these tactical advances were to translate into a major Russian breakthrough later this summer, the prospects for Ukraine could be bleak.

The UK package of weapons also included precision-guided bombs – these are air-launched, have limited range, so appear to have limited utility to Ukraine, so why have they been offered?

One reason is that the UK weapons lockers are bare – supplies that Britain is prepared to offer have run dry, and although the UK government has placed the national defence industry onto a “war footing”, it will still take time before sustainable and significant supplies of weapons start to flow.  

However, if Ukraine is to reverse the current Russian battlefield momentum, it needs to explore new ways to fight back. 

Permission to attack inside Russia itself should enable Ukraine to expand its target list.  

Although the Ukrainian fighters do not have the requisite clearances and capability to deliver Western precision-guided bombs, in desperate times such clearances can be secured in record time. 

But how could they be used?

The Russians have air superiority over the frontlines, and it would be both dangerous and difficult for the Ukrainian air forces to intervene decisively – even with new weapons. 

However, if the initial batch of F-16 fighters being donated by the West were to arrive early this summer, this could provide more choices for Ukraine.  

Indeed, that might include targeting Russian forces in Crimea, or conducting airstrikes against military targets – such as logistics supply lines – inside Russian territory.

Although this latest announcement might have limited direct impact on Russian momentum on the frontline, it has the potential to offer new options to Ukraine to change the tide of the war.  

And, recent history suggests that where the UK leads, other nations soon follow.

However, the “elephant in the room” is the strength of Western resolve to stop Russia’s brutal invasion.  

Time is not on Ukraine’s side.  

Western reticence to confront Russia is understandable – indeed, President Putin is relying on it.  

But appeasement has not proven historically to be a credible strategy.