PyPSA-CEE is Ember’s EU-wide open power system model developed using the PyPSA framework, a Python-based ‘open source toolbox for simulating and optimising modern power systems’. The results and input data are publicly available under the MIT licence, allowing for all analysts to replicate our results or build their own scenarios for Europe’s future energy system.
The model runs at hourly resolution and ensures the correct balancing of the EU-wide electricity system. Hourly demand and climate generation profiles (wind, solar and hydro) are taken from ENTSO-E’s Pan-European Climate Database (PECD) which provides data for all years between 1980 and 2019. For this model, data from the worst-case climate year 2008 is used. The demand profile is taken from ENTSO-E’s Distributed Energy pathway, a scenario with a decentralised focus on renewables which achieves at least a 55 % emission reduction in 2030. The model is optimised according to dispatch only, with no possibility for capacity expansion given the short 2030 time frame and focus on real-life delivery of proposed projects (although see notes on grid expansion below).
The model consists of 29 country nodes representing all EU countries except Luxembourg, Malta and Cyprus, as well as the United Kingdom, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey and Russia.
Technology capacities for coal, gas, oil, biomass, nuclear and hydro (pumped storage, reservoir and run-of-river) are derived per country according to latest policy announcements, taking into account nuclear expansion/closures, coal phaseouts and future gas capacity plans. Renewable capacities differ according to the scenario as described below.
Coal and gas capacity is provided at unit level (developed from Global Energy Monitor’s power plant databases) and split into power-only and combined heat and power (CHP) units. Future gas CHP units built between 2023 and 2030 are assumed to replace the equivalent capacity of coal CHP units per country. A phase out of coal capacity is applied using linear extrapolation to the specified phase out date for countries with official phaseout plans. This results in a phase out of around 13% coal CHP capacity, which is assumed to be covered by increased energy efficiency according to the latest Energy Efficiency Directive. Another 17% of gas CHPs are converted to renewable CHPs, in line with the agreed amendments to the Renewable Energy Directive.
Nuclear units are set to a minimum 40% load factor. CHP units are set to run with a semi-fixed generation profile related to historic heat demand.
The model was calibrated using installed generation capacity and ENTSO-E demand data from 2021. Model results were compared to ENTSO-E generation data by country by technology to ensure the power grid simulation produces robust results.
All model input files as well as the Python code are available on Github.
