First Polls Since Sunak Called UK Election Show No Clear Change

The first opinion polls since Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called the UK general election last week show no clear change to the electoral picture after the opening days of campaigning.

A poll by JL Partners found a slight narrowing in the lead held by Keir Starmer’s opposition Labour Party over Sunak’s Conservatives, to 12 points from 15 points earlier this month. The pollster highlighted a shift among older voters and those considering the right-wing Reform UK party, with more backing the Tories after Sunak announced a series of policies aimed at shoring up their core vote.

But a survey published by Survation saw Labour’s lead at 23 points, up four percentage points compared with just a week ago. “The Conservatives have not received the bounce they were hoping for since calling the election,” it said.

A larger poll by Redfield and Wilton, sampling 12,000 voters, also gave Labour a lead of 23 points. That was up one percentage point up on the previous week. The company said there was “no narrowing” since the election was called.

The polls suggest it is difficult to draw firm conclusions from the first skirmishes of the election campaign, though all three suggest Starmer’s Labour is still on course for power. The opposition party has held a consistent poll lead of around 20 points with most pollsters over the last year.

Read more: Inside Sunak’s Hail-Mary Plan to Narrow Poll Gap With Labour

Since Sunak called the July 4 vote last week, he has announced eye-catching policies on introducing mandatory National Service and cutting tax for pensioners. The Tory strategy has been to win back voters from older people and Reform voters in order to narrow the gap with Labour in the first two weeks of the campaign, Bloomberg previously reported.

Any narrowing of the polls in the coming days would likely be seized upon by the party as a sign its approach is working, though a failure to shift opinion would put the Tory campaign under significant pressure.

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