It had been announced and communicated to the parties involved in advance. Now, the formal presentation has taken place for the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, which was introduced by the European Commission on November 8th. This announcement occurred during the same press conference where significant updates regarding the EU Enlargement Package for 2023 were revealed.
The Enlargement Package 2023:
The European Commission has today adopted the 2023 Enlargement Package, providing a comprehensive analysis of the progress made by candidate and potential candidate countries towards European Union (EU) membership. The countries included in the assessment are Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey, and, for the first time, Ukraine, the Republic of Moldova, and Georgia. The report focuses on the progress in implementing fundamental reforms and provides clear indications of future priorities for each country.
During the press conference, the European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, said: “Enlargement is a vital policy for the European Union. Completing our Union is the call of history, the natural horizon of our Union. Completing our Union, also has a strong economic and geopolitical logic. Past enlargements have shown the enormous benefits both for the accession countries and the EU. We all win.”
Regarding Ukraine and Moldova, the Commission recommends that the Council initiate accession negotiations, highlighting significant progress in crucial areas such as judicial reform, anti-corruption efforts, and alignment with EU standards. However, the Commission suggests adopting negotiation frameworks only after Ukraine and Moldova have implemented some key measures, with a report expected by March 2024 on the progress made.
For Georgia, the Commission recommends granting the country candidate status, recognizing advancements in legislative reforms and strong commitment to the EU in recent months.
For Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Commission suggests opening accession negotiations as soon as the country achieves the necessary level of compliance with accession criteria. However, it emphasizes the need for further efforts to meet the priorities set by the Commission, suggesting continuous monitoring with a report to the Council by March 2024.
Regarding Kosovo, the Commission supports the country’s commitment to the European path but highlights the need for additional efforts, particularly in the field of judicial reforms. It recognizes legislative achievements and work on normalizing relations with Serbia but stresses the need to implement agreed-upon obligations.
For Turkey, the Commission acknowledges the country’s key role as an EU partner but emphasizes that accession negotiations have been suspended since 2018. It calls on Turkey to significantly improve alignment with the EU’s common foreign and security policy and to intensify cooperation in areas such as counter-terrorism, economy, and food security.
Finally, now, it is up to the Council to consider the Commission’s recommendations and make decisions on the next steps in the enlargement process.
The New Growth Plan for Western Balkans:
President von der Leyen, returning from her Balkans tour where she outlined the key points of the tailor-made Economic Plan for Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia, explained how to align the Balkan economies with those of the current EU Member States and, in doing so, “anticipate the benefits of accession.” What makes it exceptional is the fact that by “opening our Single Market in this way, we expect them to open the Regional Market among themselves,” von der Leyen noted, emphasizing that “all this could double their economies in the next decade,” provided that reforms and investments are implemented.
President von der Leyen, outlined the four pillars of the Plan, presenting “a completely new approach to closing the economic and social gap between the EU and the Balkan region”.
The first pillar is economic integration into the Single Market in seven key sectors: free movement of goods, services, and workers, access to the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA), facilitation of road transport, integration and decarbonization of energy markets, the digital single market, and integration into industrial supply chains.
The second pillar is internal economic integration through the Common Regional Market (based on EU rules and standards). The EU Commission estimates that this factor alone could potentially add 10% to their economies.
The third pillar concerns fundamental reforms, which are essential in the Brussels Plan. “We have experienced in the EU combining reforms and investments after the Covid-19 pandemic with Next Generation EU, and it worked very well; I don’t see why it shouldn’t work for you,” von der Leyen made clear during her trip to Balkan capitals. For the EU executive, this pillar will have a dual benefit: on the one hand, it will support the Western Balkans’ path towards EU accession, and on the other, it will attract foreign investments and strengthen regional stability.
Regarding investments, crucial is fourth pillar of EU financial assistance for reforms for all partners comes in. It specifically involves a new reform and growth instrument for the Western Balkans of €6 billion for the period 2024-2027 (with the EU Budget review), with payments tied to the implementation of agreed socio-economic reforms. The instrument will consist of €2 billion in grants and €4 billion in concessional loans, and for implementation, each of the six countries needs to present a reform agenda based on the recommendations of the Enlargement Package and Economic Reform Programs (ERP).
However, this last point has a direct impact on current EU members and EU institutions, as it involves the ongoing evaluation of the 2021-2027 Multiannual Financial Framework by the European Parliament and the EU Council. It is now up to the co-legislators to examine the proposal for this new instrument within the framework of the mid-term review package.
Lastly, it should be noted that for Serbia and Kosovo, there is an additional clause: “They must engage constructively in the dialogue on the normalization of relations.” In other words, without progress in the Pristina-Belgrade dialogue, the funds envisaged by the Plan will remain at a standstill or be lost. The same applies to Bosnia and Herzegovina in case of non-implementation of fundamental reforms: “Resources will be redistributed to other countries that can do so; this is a strong incentive to move forward actively,” warned the Commission’s president in Sarajevo.
Final considerations:
Despite the Von der Leyen’s speech, how to integrate efficiently countries extremely linked (geographically and culturally speaking) with Russia, like Moldova, Georgia or Ukraine it’s still a great challenge.
Regarding the Western Balkans, the significant challenges there appear to be growing, with effective solutions notably absent. Despite the European Commission’s continuous adjustments to its enlargement strategy, aimed at strengthening democratic systems and economies in the Balkan countries, tangible results remain disappointing. The task of meeting and sustaining democratic standards in the Western Balkans continues to be arduous.
Enlargement policy not only grapples with the transformation of the region into consolidated democracies but also faces sobering economic prospects, widespread poverty, inequality, and a lack of opportunities, highlighting key disparities with the European Union and its member states. The last geopolitical facts, such as the war in Ukraine and the new tension in the north region of Kosovo, has further exacerbated the socio-economic challenges in the region, compounding issues like the stalled normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina and the impasse in Bosnia and Herzegovina, where effective solutions are still elusive for the EU.
Clearly, reform in the Western Balkans depends not only on EU prescriptions but also on the political will and implementation within these countries, which are currently lacking in most cases. The EU’s inconsistent commitment to enlargement and its stringent conditionality, often influenced by domestic politics in member states, are unlikely to facilitate convergence. Instead, they compel Western Balkan countries to explore pragmatic alternatives through other solutions, like Serbia is doing with Russia.
Now, all that remains is to observe how the integration process unfolds following the announcement of funds for the New Growth Plan for Western Balkans. The Union’s initiative holds the potential to facilitate rapid expansion, ensuring swift economic growth for these states. However, there is also the possibility of unintended consequences, as seen in previous instances with Turkey and currently with Serbia. Providing funds to candidate countries, which may have cultural differences from the rest of Europe, does not always guarantee their moral commitment to becoming a part of it.
