At the end of 2022, about 2.6 million people held visas that typically have NRPF, substantially up from previous years
At the end of 2022, 2.58 million people held valid visa types that typically come with NRPF (Figure 1). A large majority will still have NRPF since a very small percentage of people successfully apply to have the condition lifted (as explained further below).
Three quarters of these individuals held either study visas (987,000) or work visas (965,000). Another 446,000 held family visas, and there were 157,000 Hong Kong BN(O)s. People on family visas and BN(O)s can apply to have their NRPF condition lifted, while those on work and study visas cannot.
The number of people holding visas that come with NRPF has increased significantly since the end of 2020, when it stood at 1.48 million (Figure 1). This increase reflects unusually high immigration after the pandemic, especially in the work and study categories, as discussed further in the Migration Observatory commentary, Why has non-EU migration to the UK risen?. For example, about 41% (1 million) and 26% (627,000) of temporary visa holders at the end of 2022 had their entry visas issued in 2022 and 2021, respectively. Only 10% (246,000) of non-EU citizens with visa types that come with NPRF had their entry visa issued before 2018. This reflects the fact that after five years, most temporary visa holders will either have left the UK or received ILR. Individuals who overstay their visas due to reasons such as being unable to afford the fee for visa renewal become irregular migrants and are not included in these data.
Figure 1
Many of those holding visas with NRPF will be financially secure and have no need to access public funds. Many UK visas have financial requirements that exclude people on the lowest incomes from coming to the UK. However, some temporary visa holders would be eligible for benefits but for the NRPF condition. For example, some work and family visa holders have relatively low wages that would make a person without NRPF eligible for in-work benefits, if they had children. A single parent on a care worker salary of £20,960, with ILR or British citizenship and living in the London Borough of Hounslow, for example, would be entitled to £244 of benefits per week, mostly from Universal Credit. (This is just one illustration: the specific benefits entitlements vary considerably depending on the amount of rent people pay.)
In addition, people may meet financial requirements when they first receive a visa but later see their circumstances change. In these scenarios, they lack access to the welfare safety net and are therefore at a higher risk of destitution. Research has shown that a variety of disruptive events, such as a divorce or becoming unemployed, can lead to financial hardship.
At the end of 2022, the top nationalities in visa categories with NRPF were India (665,000), China (316,000), Nigeria (268,000), Pakistan (147,000) and Hong Kong (121,000)
Indian citizens were the largest nationality group in visa categories with NRPF at the end of 2022, followed by nationals of China, Nigeria, Pakistan and Hong Kong (Figure 2). More than three quarters of Hong-Kong citizens with NRPF (79%) were in the BN(O) route.
People on family visas are the largest group who can apply to have their NRPF condition lifted. The top nationalities in the family visa category at the end of 2022 were Pakistani, Indian, and Nigerian nationals.
Figure 2
Just over half of the people with visas that typically come with NRPF were women, and 92% were adults, at the end of 2022 (Figure 3). Women made up roughly half of visa holders in most leave categories except for family visas, where they represented almost two thirds.
Figure 3
EU citizens who moved to the UK after 31 December 2020 have NRPF attached to their status
EU migrants who moved to the UK after the end of the transition period on 31 December 2020 have restricted access to public funds, except those who arrived on an EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS) Family Permit (family members whose relationship to a resident with status under the EUSS started before 31 December 2020).
Immigration from the EU under the post-Brexit immigration system has been low. As of 31 December 2022, EU citizens represented 3% of all visa holders with NRPF usually attached to their immigration status—or 84,000 people. Most of these EU citizens had work (52%) or study (38%) visas, while another 9% were on family visas (Figure 4). The top five EU nationalities among EU visa holders were France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and Poland. It is worth noting that post-2004 accession countries (EU-8 and EU-2) represented just 17% of the overall EU visa holders, marking a significant departure from historical patterns of immigration to the UK.
EU nationals with status under the EUSS –– who were living in the UK before 1 January 2021 –– can generally access public funds without restrictions, with some limited exceptions for pre-settled status holders. Nonetheless, emerging data shows a rise in the number of destitute EU citizens being referred to local authorities for support.
Figure 4
All residents with irregular immigration statuses are subject to the NRPF condition, but there are no official statistics about the size of this group
People with no visa or whose visas are expired are subject to the NRPF condition. There are no official statistics about the size or characteristics of the population living in the UK without legal status. This population is expected mostly to comprise non-EU citizens, although it would also include EU citizens who did not apply to the EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS) and were already living in the UK before 31 December 2020. While some external organisations have attempted to assess the size of the irregular population in the UK, the data limitations and methodological problems are so significant that estimates are not expected to be particularly reliable. Nonetheless, the estimates that do exist suggest it is plausible that the figure is in the hundreds of thousands.
Almost 100,000 recently arrived migrants live in economically vulnerable households with dependent children
There is no available data on the socio-economic characteristics of individuals with NRPF. However, we can look at non-EU nationals with less than five years of residence in Britain – the group most likely to have NRPF – to examine indicators of deprivation. Since the large majority of EU citizens do not have NRPF, they are excluded from the analysis. In 2023, one study estimated that in 2022 at least 1,195,800 foreign-born individuals in the UK were destitute (28% of whom were children); this includes migrants with permanent status who do not have NRPF. The estimate suggests that migrants are over-represented among the population experiencing destitution.
A sizeable minority of recently arrived working-age non-EU citizens have characteristics that put them at risk of poverty, including living with dependent children, being economically inactive or unemployed, or in a low-paid job (Figure 5). In 2019-21, around half (348,000 or 49%) lived in a household with dependent children, and about a quarter (184,000 or 26%) lived in households where all working-age adults are inactive, unemployed, or in low or low-medium skilled jobs where the risk of financial insecurity is higher. About 97,000 individuals (14% of total) were living in households with dependent children and 12,000 (2%) were part of single-parent households where all working-age adults were inactive, unemployed, or in low or low-medium skilled jobs.
Non-EU citizens with less than five years of residence are more exposed to some factors that increase the risk of poverty compared to UK nationals. For example, they are more likely to have dependent children, be unemployed, or experience housing deprivation. However, on average, they also tend to be healthier (as recent migrants tend to be younger) and less likely to be single parents.
Figure 5
Research has shown that single or lone parents, former asylum seekers and people with low levels of education are at a higher risk of poverty. Economic activity is another key determinant – those who are unemployed face much higher risks of poverty and social exclusion, along with inactive individuals. The kind of jobs people do also influence their risk of poverty. People working in jobs that do not require long training periods (e.g. cleaners, care workers, retail cashiers) tend to have lower earnings than those in jobs that do (e.g. IT specialists, teachers, doctors). Furthermore, the risk of poverty is notably higher for households with children, particularly single-parent households. In 2016, more than half of single-parent households were at risk of poverty or social exclusion in the UK, a pattern visible across European countries.
Not everyone who is economically vulnerable or facing economic hardship will be considered destitute. Destitution indicates very deep poverty, so the number of people who can be classified as poor under different measures will be larger than the number of people who are destitute. Based on Section 95(3) of the Immigration and Asylum 1999 Act, destitution entails the inability to afford the absolute basics required to maintain a healthy life, such as adequate accommodation or other essential living needs, such as food and clothing. For an empirically informed discussion of the impact of the cost of living crisis on the level of destitution in the UK, including among the migrant population, see the recent report by Fitzpatrick et al. (2023).
Recently arrived migrants from Bangladesh (27%), Pakistan (21%), and Iran (18%) have the highest likelihood of living in a deprived household
The 2021 Census of England and Wales provides information on several dimensions of household deprivation, which are defined by the Office for National Statistics as education deprivation (when no household member has the equivalent to GCSE grades A*-C and no one aged 16 to 18 years is a full-time student); housing deprivation (when the household’s accommodation is either overcrowded, in a shared dwelling, or has no central heating); and health/disability deprivation (if any person in the household has general health that is bad or very bad or is identified as disabled).
Among non-EU passport holders with less than five years of residence in the UK, 15% lived in households in England and Wales that were deprived in at least two of the dimensions described above (Figure 6). This is slightly lower than the equivalent figure for UK nationals, which was 18%. The highest shares of individuals in deprived households were found among Bangladeshi (27%), Pakistani (21%), and Iranian (18%) nationals.
Figure 6
An estimated 10% of working-age non-EU citizens with less than five years of residence receive public benefits, compared to 25% of UK nationals
The prevalence of NRPF among non-EU citizens with less than five years of residence in the UK can be seen in survey data showing whether people say they are receiving at least one kind of benefit (including child benefit). Some recently arrived migrants are expected to report receiving benefits, for example, if they are a refugee or are part of a family with a UK citizen or person who does not have NRPF, among other reasons. Overall, only 10% of recently arrived working-age non-EU citizens received public benefits in 2019-21, considerably less than the share among non-EU citizens with longer stays (28%), who are less likely to have NRPF. By comparison, about a quarter of UK working-age nationals received benefits in the same period.
The gap is particularly large when we consider groups of people who are at a higher risk of poverty and would be more likely to receive benefits if they had access to public funds (Figure 7). For example, an estimated 69% of British adults living in a household with dependent children where all adults were in low/low-medium skilled jobs, unemployed, or economically inactive received benefits in 2019-21. Among non-EU citizens with less than five years of residence in the same situation, the percentage was 36%. Similar gaps exist for those looking after their family or home (70% vs. 22%), single parents (72% vs. 39%), or the unemployed (49% vs. 21%).
Figure 7
There were around 2,500 successful applications to lift the NRPF condition per year in 2021 and 2022
Among the largest visa categories, family visa holders (446,000 at the end of 2022) and BN(O)s (147,000) can apply for a change of conditions to have their NRPF condition lifted, while work and study visa holders cannot. The top nationalities of people on family visas at the end of 2022 were Pakistani (65,000 or 15%), Indian (52,000 or 12%), Nigerian (42,000 or 9%) and Bangladeshi (22,000 or 5%). In the BN(O) route, 61% are Hong-Kongers and 33% are Chinese nationals (see Figure 2 above).
A relatively small share of people with NRPF have the condition lifted by the Home Office, following a successful Change of Conditions (CoC) application. The number of applications increased sharply—and temporarily—during the pandemic in 2020, reaching 5,748 in Q2 2020 (Figure 8). Excluding the 2020 pandemic year, the Home Office received 3,628 CoC applications on average per year, from 2018 to 2022. Home Office figures do not show how many people currently hold a visa from which the NRPF condition has been lifted, as the same person may need to apply more than once if they extend or switch visas. Nonetheless, the numbers indicate that only a small percentage of people holding visas where NRPF can be lifted successfully do so (there were 446,000 family visa holders and 147,000 BNO visa holders at the end of 2022). This is likely due to several factors: first, eligible people who are facing economic hardship may not necessarily be destitute or at risk of destitution, and thus they may decide not to apply. Second, visa holders may be fearful of applying for a CoC in case it jeopardises future applications for leave to remain or the risk of social services intervening in the care of their children.
Between 2017 and Q1 2023, 64% change of applications were successful, resulting in a little over 20,000 grants of changed status. Processing times for applications have increased over time, particularly after a spike in applications during 2020. Whereas a decision took less than 30 days in 2017-19, this increased to around 50 days in 2022-23.
Figure 8
A total of 28,000 change of conditions applications were submitted in the six years to March 2023 (Figure 9). A quarter of applications were from Nigerian citizens, followed by nationals of Pakistan, Ghana, India, and Bangladesh. These were also the top nationalities of family visa holders (Figure 2). However, Turkish (95 CoC applications) and US nationals (159 CoC applications) are not in the top ten nationalities submitting CoC applications despite being among the top ten nationalities on family visas.
While Hong Kong BNO status holders are eligible to apply for a Change of Conditions, very few have done so: 46 since 2021, when the BNO route opened.
Figure 9
The application success rate is relatively consistent across different nationalities, averaging 70% from 2017 to Q1 2023 (Figure 10). However, there is more variation in the gender balance of applications. In particular, applications from citizens of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka were more likely to be men. Overall, 64% of applications were submitted by women during this period.
Figure 10
Evidence gaps and limitations
Until very recently, there was almost no statistical evidence at all on people with NRPF. This briefing has attempted to bring together available data to shed light on the issue, but many data and evidence gaps remain related to the short- and long-term impacts of the NRPF condition.
There is no statutory duty on local authorities to systematically collect anonymised data on the numbers of vulnerable and destitute migrants with NRPF approaching them for support. The NRPF Network publish an annual analysis of the collective data provided by 72 councils in England and Scotland. In 2023, COSLA (Convention of Scottish Local Authorities) published data on the number of vulnerable destitute migrants with NRPF approaching Scottish local authorities. However, there is no published data for the numbers of destitute migrants with NRPF approaching social services in Wales and Northern Ireland. Whilst the data published by the NRPF Network and COSLA provides an insight into the potential numbers of people impacted by the NRPF condition, the challenges in collating and reporting data indicate the current figures represent an underreporting of the need and support provided by social services across the UK to vulnerable migrants with NRPF.
The main data sources for understanding migrants’ characteristics and outcomes—such as the Annual Population Survey and the Census—do not directly measure immigration status or whether a person has NRPF. The number of years a person has lived in the UK gives only a rough indication of whether they are likely to have NRPF. As a result, it is difficult to quantify the effects of having the NRPF condition, the impacts of having the condition lifted (through either a successful change of conditions or ILR application), or the long-term effects of having had NRPF in the past. For example, evidence suggests that experiences of poverty can have long-term impacts, particularly but not exclusively on children. According to one social cost benefit analysis estimate, such removing the NRPF condition from some migrants could bring net benefits. However, relatively little is known about the fiscal impacts of the NRPF condition, which is relevant since reducing costs to the state is one of the stated goals of the policy. Finally, a limitation of Home Office administrative data (Migrant Journey), on which we rely on to estimate the number of people with NRPF, is that they do not allow us to identify families and family composition.
Acknowledgements
Research for this project was produced with the support of abdrn Financial Fairness Trust.
Thanks to Roshan Melwani for his assistance. Thanks to Jacqui Broadhead, Mubin Haq, Caz Hattam, Lucy Leon, Rupinder Parhar, Ilona Pinter, and Madeleine Sumption for comments on an earlier version of this briefing.
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