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Good Tuesday morning. This is Gregorio Sorgi, a political reporter at POLITICO, bringing you today’s Playbook.
DRIVING THE DAY 
ENLARGEMENT COUNTDOWN: With just over 24 hours to go until the Commission publishes its long-awaited enlargement report, hopes are high in the Western Balkans that the EU will finally push ahead with those countries’ membership bids.
The elephant in the room: The political chatter in Brussels and across EU capitals centers on whether the Commission will back the start of accession talks with Ukraine — but most Western Balkan countries have been waiting in line for over a decade and are keen to finally see some progress.
A decade of hurt: Serbia, Montenegro and North Macedonia obtained candidate status — the first major step toward EU accession — over 10 years ago, but have been stuck in sluggish membership talks ever since.
**A message from ETNO: Leading in tech means ruling the world. What is Europe’s role as the AI, Quantum and 6G races take off? Today, EU Commissioners Valdis Dombrovskis, Vera Jourová, Margaritis Schinas and Iliana Ivanova will give their views at the FT-ETNO “Tech & Politics” Forum: tune in from 9AM!**
Putin keeps reaping dividends: But Russia’s war against Ukraine gave new momentum to EU enlargement and revived the membership bids of most countries from the Western Balkans. “I see now that there is more political push, there is momentum,” Serbia’s interim Ambassador to the EU Danijel Apostolovic told Playbook. “Because of the war and the new geopolitical context, they [the Commission] want to speed up a little bit of the process but, they say, the process must remain merit-based,” he said.
Last night at Hebdo: The Commission backed the opening of accession negotiations with Ukraine, Moldova and — to the surprise of many — Bosnia and Herzegovina, according to a draft proposal that was circulated in the weekly meeting of the heads of Cabinet (the so-called Hebdo), several officials said.
Bosnia backlash: Rumors of Sarajevo’s green light didn’t go down well among some EU diplomats, who angrily pointed to Bosnia and Herzegovina’s alleged backsliding on the rule of law. “We granted Bosnia candidate status under the premise that that would incentivize reforms, and ever since we’ve only seen the rule of law and political situation deteriorate. How can we now decide to open negotiations with them and still expect that other candidate countries diligently do their reforms?” an EU diplomat fumed.
And more: There were also plenty of raised eyebrows at the Commission’s proposal — according to several officials — to give Georgia candidate status, despite concerns around its pro-Russia leanings.
Balkans back on the agenda: Brussels is stepping up its engagement with Balkan countries ahead of a crunch summit of EU leaders, who have the last word on whether to press ahead with the Commission’s enlargement proposals. The EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell invited his counterparts from the region to discuss foreign policy in Brussels on November 13, three senior diplomats told Playbook. Speculation is rife that Balkan leaders will meet their EU counterparts for a special summit in Brussels on December 13 — the day before the European Council summit.
Eyes on Belgrade: The biggest and most powerful country in the region, Serbia, has been vying to enter the EU since the Thessaloniki summit in 2003. But over recent years its push has stalled over its refusal to adopt sanctions against Russia.
Not forgotten: “We think that sanctions are not the way to resolve the things considering that the Serbian population was faced with sanctions in the 1990s,” Apostolovic, Serbia’s envoy to Brussels, told us. “Citizens are very much against it because with sanctions you’re blaming the whole population.”
Montenegro in pole position: The small Western Balkan country is the odds-on favorite to become the EU’s 28th member country, as Commission President Ursula von der Leyen indicated in a recent visit to Podgorica. “Our ambition is to become the 28th member state by 2028,” its Ambassador to the EU Petar Markovic told Playbook, adding that the main roadblock is the appointment of three senior heads of the judiciary by the national parliament, for which there has been no majority.
Making progress: The EU’s rules don’t allow Montenegro to close other accession chapters until it has cleared this hurdle, but Markovic expressed hopes that the new government might soon deliver on this.
ISRAELI ENVOY ON THE WEST’S WOBBLING SUPPORT
ISRAEL FEARS EROSION OF WESTERN SUPPORT: Israel’s envoy to the EU Haim Regev vented fears that the West’s support to his country is starting to wobble one month on from Hamas’ brutal attack. “We got strong support so far, but we start to see the erosion of the support because of what’s going on inside Gaza and because Hamas is using the population as a human shield,” Regev said in a conversation at POLITICO’s Brussels office on Monday.
With friends like these: Regev praised the EU’s reaction to the attacks on October 7, but issued scathing verdicts on several ideas raised by leaders over the last month.
Peace conference? The Israeli diplomat lashed out at calls from EU leaders — led by Spain’s Pedro Sánchez — for a peace conference within the next six months. “It’s not the time to speak about the peace conference right now. We are now in war against Hamas and as long as Hamas is there, I don’t see any peace prospect.”
Humanitarian conference? Regev was equally dismissive toward the “humanitarian conference” to be hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on November 9 — to which he said Israel hadn’t been invited. “Like many, we do not understand what’s going to happen there,” the Israeli envoy told us. “We only hope that it will not turn into a kind of anti-Israeli platform to criticize Israel, to call for a cease-fire.”
Speaking of cease-fires: The Israeli diplomat implied that Western politicians calling for a break in the fighting in Gaza — including Sánchez and U.N. chief António Guterres — are inadvertently playing into Hamas’ hands. He suggested the calculus might have been to carry out the October 7 attack betting that international pressure would have eventually forced Israel to halt its military response.
‘Tactical little pauses’: In an interview with ABC News, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel was considering “tactical little pauses” in fighting to allow aid into Gaza and to move hostages out. “We’ve had them before, I suppose, we’ll check the circumstances in order to enable goods, humanitarian goods to come in, or our hostages, individual hostages to leave,” he said. However, he dismissed the idea of a cease-fire.
Two-state solution? Speaking to POLITICO, Regev brushed away any talk of a two-state solution between Israelis and Palestinians — which has been the EU’s official position for a long time. “So, talking about the day after not only of Gaza, but of a two-state solution, is too far,” Regev said: “We need to recover mentally and physically, and we need to understand why it’s happened.”
Guess who just talked about that: Earlier on Monday, von der Leyen set out her five points on what should happen after the end of the conflict and restated her support for a two-state solution in a speech to EU ambassadors.
VDL’s 5 points in a nutshell: 1) Gaza cannot remain a “safe haven for terrorists,” which could be achieved through “an international peace force under U.N. mandate” … 2) “Hamas cannot control or govern Gaza,” meaning “there should be only one Palestinian Authority and one Palestinian state” … 3) No long-term Israeli security presence in Gaza … 4) No forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza … 5) No sustained blockade of Gaza, as “the policy has not worked.”
But these are only the Commission’s ideas. A senior EU official hit back that von der Leyen’s five points express the Commission’s view — not necessarily that of the whole EU. “Certainly, if the president of the Commission has launched some ideas we welcome these ideas, but the president of the Commission is speaking on behalf of the Commission,” the official said.
King Abdullah in town: Today, von der Leyen will discuss her ideas for the “day after” with Jordan’s King Abdullah II in Brussels. He’ll also meet with Council chief Charles Michel and Parliament President Roberta Metsola.
Money for Gaza: On Monday, von der Leyen also announced a €25 million increase in humanitarian aid to Gaza, which brings the total figure to over €100 million this year, my colleague Jacopo Barigazzi reports.
TIME RUNNING OUT FOR NETANYAHU: Meanwhile, Netanyahu has just a few weeks to eliminate Hamas, as public opinion rapidly swings against the IDF’s attacks on Gaza, former Israeli PM and chief of the Israeli Defense Forces Ehud Barak told my colleague Jamie Dettmer in an exclusive interview. Barak also suggested a multinational Arab force could take control of Gaza after the military campaign to take over from Hamas. Read Jamie’s full interview here.
NOW READ: Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has said his country would consider participating in a sea corridor to get humanitarian aid to Gaza if ships could operate with “full protection.” “Because of our geography, if we can deliver humanitarian aid in an organized manner and ensure that this aid reaches those who actually needed it the most, we would be happy to do so,” Mitsotakis told POLITICO’s Power Play podcast. Read more here.
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MIGRATION
ITALY TO OUTSOURCE MIGRANT CENTERS: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has struck a deal to build two migrant reception centers in Albania. The structures, due to open in spring 2024, will aim to house 36,000 migrants a year when fully operational. “They will stay in these centers for the time necessary to quickly process asylum applications and, if necessary, for repatriation,” Meloni said in a press conference in Rome alongside her Albanian counterpart Edi Rama. My colleague Seb Starcevic has the details.
How will the Berlaymont respond? The Commission on Monday hinted that Italy’s new policy might run into legal problems in Brussels. “Currently EU asylum law applies only to applications made on the territory of a member state but not outside,” the Commission’s migration spokesperson Anitta Hipper said on Monday, responding to a question on Austria’s rumored intentions to copy the U.K.’s policy of sending asylum-seekers to Rwanda.
Migration crunch meeting: The EU’s home affairs chief Ylva Johansson will participate today in a so-called trilogue meeting with Parliament and Council on three key files of the EU’s flagship migration pact. “On the migration pact I think it is fair to say that we start the last lap,” Johansson wrote to Playbook.
Progress made: “That we have made such progress is down to three things. Firstly, the institutional resolve of the Council and Parliament, in September 2022, to follow a Joint Roadmap on the New Pact on Migration and Asylum. Secondly, the clear joint commitment addressing operational challenges as they arose, lately in the Mediterranean. And thirdly, a realisation that the current geopolitical situation means that Europe is compelled to work together,” Johansson said.
MACRON’S MIGRATION MOMENT: Meanwhile, a highly contentious immigration bill is putting Emmanuel Macron’s governing coalition to a test — and could even blow it up, Clea Caulcutt reports. Macron’s government faces an uphill battle on the bill in the National Assembly, where he has lost an absolute majority, and will have to convince lawmakers in a Senate dominated by opposition forces.
What it could mean: To pass the legislation, the government may use an unpopular legislative device that bypasses a vote in parliament, but which allows the opposition to table motions of no-confidence.
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NEW SPENDING RULES:
FISCAL REFORM SLIPPAGE: The reform of the Stability and Growth Pact is taking longer than expected — with the risk that it might not be finished by the end of this Commission’s mandate.
Another delay: The Spanish Council presidency drafted another “landing zone” — obtained by my top colleague Paola Tamma — instead of a legislative text as promised. This means that a common EU27 position would only come next month — if at all.
What changes: The new proposed compromise introduces a “deficit resilience safeguard,” which should guarantee that countries’ annual deficits stay below 3 percent of GDP by an as yet unspecified “common safety margin.” This safeguard applies to all EU countries irrespective of their debt levels, but only after they have gone through a multi-annual debt-reducing exercise of four to seven years.
Magic numbers: All hinges on exactly what that margin will be. If it’s 2 percent of GDP, meaning annual deficits can’t go above 1 percent, it will be punitive and override all other rules. If it’s 1 percent of GDP, hence allowing deficits of 2 percent, it will have much less bite. The calibration of that margin is where the most heated discussions will take place on Thursday among EU finance ministers.
Berlin claims a win: What’s clear is that it’s a huge win for Germany, which has been asking for this measure, and obtained it — although it is still seeking clarity on the numbers.
ITALY BASHES BUDGET RULES: Meanwhile, Italy’s usually tight-lipped Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti spoke out against “a very dangerous bureaucratic involution at European level, a kind of bubble incapable of giving responses to the new problems created by global challenges.” Speaking at a conference on the future of the EU on Monday, Giorgetti added that the bloc’s budget rules and their application to investments make it difficult for countries to compete globally, my colleague Hannah Roberts reports.
CHINA CORNER
SUMMIT TIME: In a speech to European ambassadors, Ursula von der Leyen announced that a high-level summit with Beijing — the first in-person gathering in four years — will take place in December.
ON THE AGENDA: Von der Leyen will fly to China alongside Council President Charles Michel amid a flurry of trade and security concerns stemming from Beijing’s geopolitical ambitions. President Xi Jinping or Premier Li Qiang are expected to co-chair the summit — although Beijing still hasn’t announced a date or venue. More here from Stuart Lau.
**What type of housing stock does the U.K. need to address the evolving landscape of housing? Let’s discuss this and more at POLITICO Live’s “The housing crisis: The evolving landscape” on December 5 in London and online. Register today!**
POLISH ELECTION LATEST
DUDA STICKS TO PIS: Polish President Andrzej Duda remained loyal to the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party on Monday evening, nominating outgoing Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki to try to form a new government.
Good luck with that: There isn’t much chance of Morawiecki succeeding. Although PiS is the largest party following the October 15 election, it has no realistic chances of wooing enough MPs to cobble together a majority. Duda ignored an appeal by three opposition parties which said together they could form a government with former PM Donald Tusk as the new leader. More from Jan Cienski here.
IN OTHER NEWS
SEIZING RUSSIAN ASSETS: The EU’s aim to use billions of dollars in frozen Russian assets to rebuild Ukraine is running into trouble. Belgium sits on the majority of Russian state assets frozen in the EU, but the government is reluctant to agree to raiding the funds without the rest of the G7 moving with the bloc at the same time. Barbara Moens and Paola Tamma have the details here.
POLITICAL ADS: The Spanish Council presidency and Parliament overnight reached a provisional deal on new rules to regulate political advertising. The rules will cover ads placed “for or on behalf of political actors” or “which are liable … to influence voting behaviour or the outcome of an election.”
Misinfo efforts: The proposals aim to curb misinformation and foreign interference in elections in the EU, and will also place limits on the use of personal data for ad targeting. The new regulation will be finalized over the coming weeks, before going to the full Parliament and Council for a green light. Read the Council’s statement here.
ROBOTS FIRST: That’s the approach the European Space Agency is settling on as it embarks on the start of a new cargo exploration program which it hopes will develop into a fully fledged human spaceflight initiative, Josh Posaner reports from the informal ministerial meeting on space in Seville.
First step to the moon: An advisory panel led by ex-NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen had called for a bold commitment to a moon mission straight away, but instead ESA is dedicating just €75 million in existing funding for return cargo trips to the International Space Station by the end of 2028 as a very first step. More from Josh and Giorgio Leali here.
AGENDA
— Informal ministerial meeting on space competitiveness in Seville, Spain; Arrivals at 8 a.m. … press conference by the Spanish presidency and the Commission at 11:15 a.m. … press conference by the EU and the European Space Agency at 2 p.m. Agenda. Watch.
— EU Ambassadors Conference continues.
— Commission President Ursula von der Leyen receives Jordan’s King Abdullah II at 9:30 a.m. … receives the “Global Board Ready Women” task force. Watch.
— European Council President Charles Michel also meets King Abdullah II.
— European Parliament President Roberta Metsola also meets King Abdullah II at 10:15 a.m. … delivers a speech at the European Youth Hearing at 1:35 p.m. … meets the President of Malta George Vella at 3:30 p.m.
— Crisis Management Commissioner Janez Lenarčič is at the Oostende Airport for the loading of humanitarian cargo … press conference at 8:15 a.m. Watch.
— Commission Vice President Maroš Šefčovič receives Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba … receives representatives of the European Consumer Organization, European Coordination Via Campesina and Green 10 … receives Vice President of the Paris Peace Forum and Coordinator of the Jacques Delors Institutes Pascal Lamy.
— Commission Vice President Dubravka Šuica meets via videoconference with Special Adviser on European and Global Health Security to von der Leyen Peter Piot … receives Apostolic Nuncio to the European Union Noël Treanor … receives Chief External Affairs Officer at PPF Group Jan Růžička.
— Budget Commissioner Johannes Hahn receives Second President of the Austrian National Council Doris Bures.
— Jobs and Social Rights Commissioner Nicolas Schmit gives a speech at the EPC breakfast policy briefing “The future EU Social and Employment Policy” … participates in an event organized by Friends of Europe and PWC: “As AI transforms the economy, how can Europe unlock the skills needed for the future?”
— Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski speaks via videoconference at the 17th Annual Meeting of the Ministers of Agriculture from South Eastern Europe.
— Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides is in Sofia, Bulgaria; Meets with Bulgarian Health Minister Hristo Hinkov … meets with Agriculture Minister Kiril Vatev.
— Transport Commissioner Adina Vălean delivers the opening speech at the Shared Mobility and the Future of Cities event … delivers the opening speech at the CT4EU event.
— Neighborhood and Enlargement Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi receives Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba … receives Major Archbishop of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church Sviatoslav Shevchuk.
— Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson is in Bratislava, Slovakia; Delivers a keynote speech via videoconference at the 20th anniversary event of the Chilean Association of Renewable Energies and Storage (ACERA) … delivers an opening speech at the 16th European Nuclear Energy Forum (ENEF).
— Environment Commissioner Virginijus Sinkevičius speaks about the Deforestation Regulation at the 2023 Ambassadors Conference … receives the Spanish National Federation of Fishermen’s Associations.
— Climate Action Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra is in Kenya; Meets with President William Ruto … delivers a speech at the University of Nairobi.
BRUSSELS CORNER
TRAIN STRIKE REMINDER: Railway workers go on strike from 10 p.m. this evening until 10 p.m. Thursday. Around half of IC trains are expected to run, with alternative services to be set up on both days of the strike. More info here.
TUNNELS REOPENED: The Bailli and Porte de Namur tunnels reopened on Monday.
BELGIUM’S HOSPITALS TO SHELTER ASYLUM SEEKERS: Some hospitals in Belgium might soon offer accommodation to asylum seekers in order to ease the country’s reception crisis ahead of winter. Belgium’s Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke has sent a letter to all hospitals in Belgium to ask them for help, his spokesperson confirmed Monday. So far, around 80 places have been secured.
10M CYCLISTS IN BRUSSELS: Cycling is becoming increasingly popular in Brussels, according to bicycle counters at 18 locations across the city. On Friday, the counters clocked up their 10 millionth cyclist this year, a new record.
More data: The data is being collected by Brussels Mobility, which recorded 4.7 million bicycle or scooter movements in 2020, 6.8 million in 2021 and 9.5 million in 2022. The busiest cycling path is along the canal in Molenbeek, followed by the Small Ring, Avenue des Arts and Rue de la Loi.
SPEAKING OF CYCLISTS: Eight food couriers from different countries are currently cycling a 400 kilometer route from Paris to Brussels to draw attention to their employment status as gig workers. They intend to arrive by Thursday, which is the scheduled date for three-way negotiations between the institutions on the EU Platform Work Directive. Their message is that the directive does not go far enough. A demonstration called “Don’t let Uber make the law” will take place on Thursday in front of the Berlaymont.
YOU’RE INVITED: There’s a panel discussion on Thursday on enlargement organized by Res Publica Europa with Director General of DG NEAR Gert Jan Koopman, the Ukrainian, Moldovan and Serbian ambassadors to the EU and MEP Radosław Sikorski. It’s on from 6 p.m. at King Baudouin Foundation.
NEW JOB: Gunnar Wiegand, former managing director for Asia and the Pacific at the EEAS, has joined the German Marshall Fund of the United States in Brussels as a visiting distinguished fellow on the Indo-Pacific team.
BIRTHDAYS: MEP Maria Grapini; Former MEP Derk Jan Eppink, now a member of the Dutch parliament; Former MEP John Procter; Bristol Myers Squibb’s Dimitri Pouradier Duteil; Austrian Nobel Prize-winner Eric Kandel; POLITICO’s Agathe Legris.
THANKS to Jacopo Barigazzi, Paola Tamma, Camille Gijs, Barbara Moens, Playbook reporter Ketrin Jochecová, editor Jack Lahart and producer Seb Starcevic.
**A message from ETNO: Join tech leaders, 4 EU commissioners & 10 top executives from the telecom industry online at the “Tech & Politics” Forum by FT-ETNO today from 9 AM. On this year’s agenda: the battle to regulate tech, building digital networks that last for generations, the future of cybersecurity and digital sustainability.**
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