(Adds settlement price in paragraph 2) Aug 15 (Reuters) – U.S. natural gas futures fell 5% on Tuesday on forecasts for lower demand into next week along with relatively high output. Front-month gas futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 13.6 cents, or 4.9% lower, at $2.659 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The retreat in prices came despite expectations that a hotter-than-normal weather forecast until end-August, especially in Texas, would keep air conditioners humming, driving up power demand. “Gas is getting tugged lower by broad-based cut in risk appetite but extended hot weather forecasts are a downside limiter,” analysts at Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note. Data provider Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 103.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 104.4 bcfd next week. But these numbers were lower from Monday’s forecast. Refinitiv said average gas output in the Lower 48 states was 101.8 bcfd so far in August, nearly the same as the 101.8 bcfd in July, and not far from a monthly record of 102.2 bcfd in May. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have fallen from an average of 12.7 bcfd in July to 12.4 bcfd so far in August, mainly due to reductions at Venture Global LNG’s Calcasieu facility in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi, Texas facility. That compares with a monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April. European gas prices rose, meanwhile, as concerns continued over possible strikes at Australian liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities. The Woodside and Chevron facilities manage nearly 11% of global LNG exports and a reduction in shipments could compel “Asian buyers to outbid their EU counterparts, likely turning to the US to secure adequate LNG cargoes”, analysts at SEB group said in a note. The U.S. is on track to become the world’s biggest LNG supplier in 2023 – ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar – as higher global prices feed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to the war in Ukraine. In 2022, roughly 69%, or 7.2 bcfd, of U.S. LNG exports went to Europe as shippers diverted cargoes from Asia to get higher prices. In 2021, when prices in Asia were higher, just 35%, or about 3.3 bcfd, of U.S. LNG exports went to Europe. With the return of higher gas prices in Asia this year, analysts said they expect U.S. LNG exports to Asia will increase. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Aug 11 Aug 4 Aug 11 average Forecast Actual Aug 11 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 38 29 21 41 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,068 3,030 2,516 2,766 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 10.9% 11.2% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 2.73 2.80 8.78 6.54 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 12.61 11.18 69.68 40.50 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) — 11.15 53.22 34.11 8.95 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 2 2 1 5 6 U.S. GFS CDDs 228 242 199 188 180 U.S. GFS TDDs 230 244 200 193 186 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week Five-Year Week Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 101.9 101.6 101.8 92.0 U.S. Imports from Canada 7.2 7.0 7.2 8.1 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 109.2 108.6 109.0 100.8 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 1.6 1.3 1.3 2.5 U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.6 6.8 6.4 5.6 U.S. LNG Exports 12.3 12.3 12.5 6.1 U.S. Commercial 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 U.S. Residential 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.4 U.S. Power Plant 46.0 46.0 47.2 41.2 U.S. Industrial 21.3 21.4 21.5 21.5 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 82.6 82.7 84.1 78.0 Total U.S. Demand 103.2 103.1 104.4 92.2 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel – EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Aug 18 Aug 11 Aug 4 Jul 28 Jul 21 Wind 7 7 7 7 7 Solar 4 4 4 4 4 Hydro 5 5 5 5 6 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 45 45 45 45 46 Coal 19 19 20 20 19 Nuclear 17 17 17 16 17 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.74 2.61 Transco Z6 New York 1.46 1.28 PG&E Citygate 6.36 5.38 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.28 1.15 Chicago Citygate 2.51 2.55 Algonquin Citygate 1.56 1.42 SoCal Citygate 7.22 4.81 Waha Hub 2.51 2.55 AECO 2.77 2.78 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 27.75 27.50 PJM West 46.25 42.00 Ercot North 750.00 227.50 Mid C 350.00 58.50 Palo Verde 225.00 47.25 SP-15 234.75 49.00 (Reporting by Harshit Verma in Bengaluru; Editing by Ed Osmond and Marguerita Choy)
