Let’s talk | Financial Times

Hello and welcome to the working week.

This correspondence by its nature is concerned only with the future. More specifically, I want to tell you about the things we know are going to happen over the next seven days. But occasionally there is a need for reflection, such as the fact that due to a technical hitch last week the Week Ahead email was not sent. If you still want to read it, or catch up on any of my ramblings, please click here.

Now, back to the future.

Spring is upon us here in London, and it is not just the weather that is thawing. Relations between France and Britain have warmed to the extent that a bilateral summit will be held this Friday — the first in five years — between President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. The hope is that talks can build co-operation on areas of mutual self-interest, such as tackling cross-Channel migration and building support for Sunak’s deal with the EU on Northern Ireland.

Something the French and British have in common at the moment is industrial unrest. Could it be a time for talks here too? Widespread action is expected across France on Tuesday in defiance of Macron’s plans to raise the legal retirement age from 62 to 64. More health workers will strike over pay in the UK this week, but unions have heeded the offer of meaningful negotiations by the NHS employers. The Unison and GMB unions on Friday cancelled their planned ambulance strikes in England after a “huge shift” in the government’s position. Separately, the Office for National Statistics is set to publish data on Wednesday showing the impact of strike action since last June on the UK economy.

The seemingly interminable process of Sweden and Finland gaining Nato membership appears to be reaching a resolution. This week the two Nordic countries will be in Brussels for talks with Turkey, whose opposition has been a critical barrier to the military alliance expanding its membership.

Wednesday is International Women’s Day. I mention this because the Financial Times is staging a free webinar on four things women need to know about money, led by the Financial Literacy & Inclusion Campaign charity. Register at ft.com/flicevent

Thank you to all those who got in touch during my recent half-term break. I am very pleased to say that the GCSE mock exams will finish at our children’s school this week. All I have to do now is get through the trauma of preparing my second born for the real thing, starting in May.

Get in touch with any comments you have about this or other items in this note by emailing me at [email protected] or, if you are reading this on email yourself, hitting reply.

Economic data

There is not so much data, but a lot of talk, about economics this week. The main draw will be Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell’s twice-yearly monetary policy testimony to the Senate Banking Committee in Washington on Tuesday. A day later, the Fed will publish its Beige Book on economic conditions.

The UK, EU and Japan will all update on gross domestic product, with the latter also making a rate-setting decision on Friday.

Companies

Lego, like its plastic bricks, has proved remarkably resilient in recent years in the face of changing fashions in children’s play and wider societal trends, such as environmental activism (the company has pledged to eliminate plastic bag use in its sets by 2025) and the rise of computer games (Lego City is about the only game on my kids’ Nintendo Switch that I can understand, let alone beat them at). So a key question when the company reports numbers on Tuesday is how long its stellar growth can last.

Another resilient and adaptable brand is Greggs, maker of the vegan sausage roll, which also reports on Tuesday. Rising raw material costs have pushed the British high street’s naughty-but-nice bakery to test the elasticity of demand for its products with a series of price increases. The question is whether the love of carbs is trumping the cost of living crisis.

The share price of The Restaurant Group has climbed in the past fortnight after activist investor Oasis accused the Wagamama owner of mismanaging the business. Rumours are swirling about a possible carve-out of TRG’s pub business.

The insurance sector will also feature heavily this week with figures from Admiral, Royal London and Legal & General on Wednesday, a day before Aviva reports its numbers. Issues include the implementation of Solvency II reforms, expected to reap rewards in terms of investment.

And finally, reform of the UK’s gambling industry is a challenge for companies in the sector, such as Entain, which reports results on Thursday.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• EU, January retail sales data

• Johan Svanström becomes Rightmove chief executive, succeeding Peter Brooks-Johnson who retires

• South Korea, February consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

• UK: S&P Global/Cips construction purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• US, monthly factory orders data

• Results: Clarkson FY

Tuesday

• Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe speaks at an AFR Business Summit and is expected to expand on the outlook for more monetary policy tightening after the central bank’s latest rate-setting decision

• China, February trade balance figures

• Germany, January industrial orders data

• UK, Halifax house price index

• US, Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell gives twice yearly monetary policy testimony to the Senate Banking Committee

• Results: Ashtead Q3, Bank of Ireland FY, Dole Q4, Foxtons FY, Fresnillo FY, Greggs FY, HelloFresh FY, Henkel FY, IWG FY, Johnson Service Group FY, Lego FY, Lindt & Sprüngli FY, Reach FY

Wednesday

• Canada, Bank of Canada rate-setting decision

• EU, final Q4 GDP figures

• Germany, January industrial production data

• Japan, January trade balance figures (AM local time)

• UK, KPMG/REC jobs report

• UK, Office for National Statistics estimate of the economic impact of strike action from June 2022 to last month

• UK, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Swati Dhingra speaks at the Resolution Foundation in London

• US, Federal Reserve publishes the Beige Book

• Results: Adidas FY, AIB FY, Admiral Group FY, Brenntag FY, Brown-Forman Q3, Campbell Soup Q2, Cathay Pacific FY, Continental FY, Galliford Try H1, Hiscox FY, Legal & General FY, Royal London Group FY, Thales Group FY, The Restaurant Group FY, Tullow Oil FY, Vivendi FY

Thursday

• China, February CPI and producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data

• Japan, final Q4 GDP figures (AM local time)

• UK, foreign direct investment data

• UK, RICS house price balance

• US, sentencing hearing date for former Goldman Sachs banker Roger Ng, who was convicted last April on bribery and money laundering charges related to the looting of Malaysian development fund 1MDB

• Results: Allbirds Q4, Aviva FY, Deutsche Post DHL FY, Domino’s Pizza Group plc FY, DS Smith Q3 trading update, Entain FY, Gap Q4, Geox FY, Hammerson FY, Hugo Boss FY, Informa FY, JCDecaux FY, JD.com Q4, John Wiley and Sons Q3, Kier H1, M&G FY, PageGroup FY, Standard Bank FY

Friday

• Canada, February unemployment rate

• Germany, February CPI and Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation figures

• India, January industrial production data

• Japan, Bank of Japan rate decision

• UK, January trade figures

• UK, January GDP estimate

• US, February employment report

• Results: Berkeley Group trading update, Groupe Casino FY, Oracle Q3, Robert Walters FY

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Austria, International Atomic Energy Agency board of governors meeting begins in Vienna

• Japan, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency to launch H3, its first new medium-lift rocket to enter space in three decades, having had to postpone last month

• Switzerland, World Trade Organization General Council meeting kicks off in Geneva

• UK, further NHS ambulance worker strikes by members of the Unite union. But the Unison and GMB unions, which represent many more ambulance workers in England, have called off their industrial action after what they described as a “huge shift” in the government’s position. More than 180 other Unite members will strike at the Drax power station in Yorkshire. Also, driving examiners who are part of the Public and Commercial Services (PCS) union begin a programme of rolling strikes over pay, pensions and jobs. In contrast, the Fire Brigades Union will close its ballot on pay, with the FBU recommending members accept a revised offer rather than walking out.

• UK, parole hearing for 70-year-old Charles Bronson, one of the country’s most notorious and longest-serving criminals, begins in London, concluding on Wednesday. If the risks are deemed low, he could be released on a life licence.

Tuesday

• Micronesia, parliamentary elections

• France, widespread industrial action planned to protest about President Emmanuel Macron’s plans to raise the legal retirement age from 62 to 64

Wednesday

• International Women’s Day commemorated at various events worldwide

• Israel, Jewish festival of Shushan Purim in Jerusalem. Financial markets closed.

• Sweden, EU defence ministers meet in Stockholm as part of the Swedish presidency of the Council of the European Union

• US, tech firm Relativity Space plans to launch the world’s first 3D-printed rocket from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida

Thursday

• Belgium, Turkey, Sweden and Finland hold talks in Brussels about the two Nordic nations’ respective bids to become fully fledged members of Nato

• US, President Joe Biden presents his Budget for the fiscal year 2024

Friday

• France, Emmanuel Macron will host UK leader Rishi Sunak for a bilateral summit, the first such meeting between the countries since 2018 and likely to involve discussions on security, immigration and climate change

• UK, a 36-hour strike begins this evening over pay by more than 100 rail engineering workers employed by Balfour Beatty and members of the RMT union, the second in a series of walkouts this month

• US, South by Southwest film and arts festival begins in Austin, Texas

Saturday

• Australia, the week-long Canberra Balloon Spectacular begins

• Lithuania, Independence Restoration Day

• Nigeria, state houses of assembly and gubernatorial elections

Sunday

• Cameroon, senate elections

• Mauritius, National Day

• UK, Crufts 2023 Best in Show presented in Birmingham on final day of the world’s largest dog show

• US, 95th Academy Awards ceremony is held in Los Angeles

• US Daylight Savings time begins with clocks advancing one hour