Inflation in focus as UK and China data lands

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Hello and welcome to the working week.

Wednesday will be the standout day in this week’s UK calendar when the Office for National Statistics is set to release a clutch of data, including inflation readings for July. Data for June were more encouraging than expected, with headline inflation dropping to 7.9 per cent. Another dip is expected as the Bank of England’s tight monetary policy seems to finally be working.

Data from China on national retail sales and industrial output is out on Tuesday, which will be closely watched given that the country’s economy has fallen into deflation after consumer prices declined in July.

In Spain, MPs will return to parliament on Thursday for the first time after the country was thrown into political limbo after an inconclusive election in July. The political wrangling between parties to form a coalition has caused Spanish business to worry that the country will grind to a halt at a particularly difficult economic time. The political mess could also mean a resurgence for the Catalan separatist movement, which is being courted by acting prime minister Pedro Sánchez as a way to maintain his grip on power.

Several other countries are reaching important points in their electoral processes, particularly in Latin America. In Ecuador, political violence threatens next Sunday’s general election after Fernando Villavicencio, one of the candidates running for president was shot dead at a campaign event. Villavicencio, as with most other candidates, was running on a platform of cracking down on crime — the country is grappling with an explosion of violence fuelled by drug trafficking.

On the corporate side the US retail sector will be in focus. Home Depot releases second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, while Walmart is up on Thursday. Foxconn, the company responsible for manufacturing Apple’s iPhone in China, reports on Monday.

One more thing . . .

I always look forward to covering this newsletter for two reasons. The first is that after trawling all the upcoming events and data drops I feel incredibly prepared for what’s coming, the second reason is all the weird and wonderful events you discover. Did you know there’s a European tree of the year? Currently the title is held by the Oak Fabrykant in Poland, which you can see below.

This Tuesday the Woodland Trust will release its shortlist for the UK’s tree of the year. A public vote will decide the winner, which will go on to compete for the crown of Europe’s best tree of 2023.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Poland: consumer price data for July

• India: consumer price data for July

• Results: Altus Power Q2, Contact Energy FY, Foxconn (also know as Hon Hai Technology Group) Q2, Getty Images Q2, JBS Q2, Niu Technologies Q2, Plus500 H1, Roivant Q1, Rumble Q2

Tuesday

• Colombia: second-quarter growth figures

• Canada: CPI data for July

• China: data including national retail sales, industrial output and foreign direct investment

• Japan: preliminary GDP figures for the second quarter of 2023

• Results: 888 Holdings H1 interim results, Alcon Q2, Cardinal Health FY, Carlsberg H1, China Airlines Q2, Home Depot Q2, Just Group H1, Legal & General H1, Mercury Systems Q4, National Australia Bank Q3 trading statement, Pandora H1, SQM Q2

Wednesday

• EU: Flash GDP estimates

• UK: The Office for National Statistics releases several important pieces of data on how the economy performed in July, including inflation data, house price index and monthly employment figures

• Results: Admiral Group FY, Aviva H1, Avnet Q4, Balfour Beatty, Carlsberg H1, Cisco Q4, Essentra H1, JD.com Q2, Target Q2, Tencent Q2, Synopsys Q3

Thursday

• Norway: the central bank decides on whether to increase its interest rate from 3.75 per cent. When the bank set the current rate in June it warned that another increase would be “most likely” in August

• UK: The Office for National Statistics releases its profitability of UK companies for the first quarter of 2023

• Results: ASX FY, Bilibili Q2, Dole Q2, Embracer group Q1, Farfetch Q2, Kahoot! Q2, Lenovo Q1, Origin Energy FY, Rank group FY, Telstra FY, Walmart Q2

Friday

• Malaysia: GDP figures for the second quarter of the year

• Moody’s is due to release its updated ratings for Switzerland, Moldova; Fitch is due to update its rating for the Netherlands, and S&P for Estonia

• Results: Deere & Co Q3, Estée Lauder Q4, Kingspan H1, Madison Square Garden Entertainment Q4, ZTE H1 interim results

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• The FT releases its business book of the year long list

• UK: fifth anniversary of Westminster bridge attack

• Pakistan: independence day celebrations, financial markets are closed

• James Bullard steps down as head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis. Bullard is a hawkish member of the Fed’s rate-setting committee and has frequently advocated for rate raises

Tuesday

• Assumption day, financial markets are closed in several countries including Chile, Greece, Italy and Lebanon

• VJ day, the date that Japan surrendered to allied forces, ending the war in the pacific and bringing the second world war to an end

• UK: the Adam Smith institute’s cost of government day, which is the day taxpayers stop paying for both government expenditure and national borrowing. This is the latest date the day has fallen in the year on record

• UK: Woodland Trust releases its shortlist for tree of the year

• Paraguay: the inauguration of new president Santiago Peña of the Colorado party. Peña’s victory is a rare triumph for a ruling party, opposition parties have taken power in almost all recent elections in the region

• 75th anniversary of the partition that created the states of Pakistan and India

Wednesday

• Thailand: The country’s constitutional court is expected to rule on Wednesday on the legality of a move to block Pita Limjaroenrat, the leader of the progressive Move Forward party that prevailed in May’s election, from being renominated for prime minister, after he fell short of the support needed in parliament on his first attempt last month. Meanwhile, Pita’s former coalition partner Pheu Thai, Thailand’s traditional opposition force, is assembling a new governing coalition without Move Forward, and may look to nominate its own candidate for prime minister.

• The second of the Palio di Siena horse races is held in Siena, Italy. The race usually lasts for less than 90 seconds, but is famously brutal with horses frequently injured.

Thursday

• Spain: parliament reconvenes with no single party or coalition of parties holding a governing majority after inconclusive elections in July.

• Indonesia: the country celebrates its independence day, financial markets are closed.

• UK: A-level results are published

Friday

• Netherlands: The Lowlands festival starts in the province of Flevoland. Headline acts include Billie Eilish and Florence and the Machine. The festival will run until August 20

• US: Joe Biden hosts a trilateral leaders summit with Japanese prime minister and South Korean president at Camp David. Top of the agenda will be the threat posed by North Korea in the region

Saturday

• Afghanistan: 104th anniversary of the country gaining independence from Britain

• G20 joint meeting of health and finance ministers takes place in India.

• Third anniversary of Apple becoming the world’s first two trillion dollar company

Sunday

• Ecuador: voters go to the polls to elect a new parliament and president following a snap election called by the country’s current leader Guillermo Lasso after he faced impeachment charges

• Guatemala: presidential elections run-off between conservative Sandra Torres and progressive Bernardo Arévalo, who was the surprise runner-up in June’s first round of voting.