As you might know, Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (NASDAQ:RKLB) recently reported its full-year numbers. Rocket Lab USA reported revenues of US$245m, in line with expectations, but it unfortunately also reported (statutory) losses of US$0.38 per share, which were slightly larger than expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company’s performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there’s been a change in sentiment towards the company. We’ve gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Check out our latest analysis for Rocket Lab USA
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Rocket Lab USA from nine analysts is for revenues of US$427.2m in 2024. If met, it would imply a huge 75% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to increase slightly, to US$0.40 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$423.2m and losses of US$0.32 per share in 2024. While this year’s revenue estimates held steady, there was also a sizeable expansion in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$8.10, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. There’s another way to think about price targets though, and that’s to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Rocket Lab USA, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$10.00 and the most bearish at US$6.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Rocket Lab USA shareholders.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Rocket Lab USA’s growth to accelerate, with the forecast 75% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 60% per annum over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.5% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it’s pretty clear that Rocket Lab USA is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Rocket Lab USA. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it’s tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year’s earnings. We have estimates – from multiple Rocket Lab USA analysts – going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Rocket Lab USA that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
