It’s been a pretty great week for Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (NYSE:FIX) shareholders, with its shares surging 12% to US$279 in the week since its latest annual results. The result was positive overall – although revenues of US$5.2b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Comfort Systems USA surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$9.01 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we’ve gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Comfort Systems USA
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Comfort Systems USA from three analysts is for revenues of US$6.55b in 2024. If met, it would imply a huge 26% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 22% to US$11.10. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$5.89b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$9.62 in 2024. So we can see there’s been a pretty clear increase in sentiment following the latest results, with both revenues and earnings per share receiving a decent lift in the latest estimates.
With these upgrades, we’re not surprised to see that the analysts have lifted their price target 6.4% to US$234per share. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company’s valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Comfort Systems USA, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$296 and the most bearish at US$200 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It’s clear from the latest estimates that Comfort Systems USA’s rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 26% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 17% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 7.1% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it’s pretty clear that Comfort Systems USA is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Comfort Systems USA’s earnings potential next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Comfort Systems USA going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
