The week beginning June 19 is packed with important global macroeconomic data releases that could have an impact on trading on the Dalal Street.
From the UK and Japan May inflation data releases are significant. Industrial production data for April from Japan will be important.
The flash monthly Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings for Manufacturing and Services for June from key economies like the US, the UK, and the Eurozone are also part of the economic reports that will be released the coming week.
In addition, global markets are waiting for the Bank of England (BoE) decision (June 22) on interest rates.
Let’s take a look at the key economic data releases in the upcoming week:
June 19 (Monday)
PBoC Loan Prime Rate
Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of mortgages. The People’s Bank of China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the ninth straight month in May. The PBoC held the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.65% and maintained the five-year LPR at 4.3%.
June 20 (Tuesday)
Japan Industrial Production April
Japan’s industrial output in April (Partial) fell 0.4 percent from the previous month. https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world/japan-april-factory-output-unexpectedly-falls-on-weaker-machinery-orders-10704401.html The decline followed an upwardly revised 1.1 percent expansion in March. Industrial production fell 0.6 percent YoY in March 2023. According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) forecast of industrial production, output is expected to rise 1.9 percent on month in May and 1.2 percent in June.
Japan Monetary Policy Minutes
The Bank of Japan kept intact its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and that for the 10-year bond yield around 0% at the two-day meeting that ended on June 16. The BOJ also made no changes to a 0.5% cap for the 10-year yield set under its yield curve control (YCC) policy. The Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will give a detailed record of the BoJ’s policy setting meeting, give in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the decision.
June 21 (Wednesday)
UK CPI, Core CPI May
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 8.7% in the 12 months to April 2023 against the 10.1% jump recorded in March. The Core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy items) increased 6.8% YoY in April, compared with a 6.2% rise seen in March. On a monthly basis, the UK CPI climbed 1.2% in April vs 0.8% in March.
June 22 (Thursday)
BoE Interest Rate Decision
On May 11, the Monetary Policy Committee of the United Kingdom’s central bank, the Bank of England, raised its key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.5%. This was the 12th straight quarter-point rise taking borrowing costs to their highest since 2008. Governor Andrew Bailey said the British central bank would “stay the course” as it seeks to curb the highest inflation of any major economy.
Eurozone Consumer Confidence June
Consumer confidence in the Eurozone improved for the second month in a row in May. Euro zone consumer confidence rose by 0.1 point in May from April’s number. The European Commission’s flat estimate measure of consumer confidence stood at -17.4 in May compared with -17.5 in April, the most positive reading since February 2022. In data for April, the Eurozone economic sentiment indicator edged up to 99.3 from 99.2 in March.
Japan National CPI, Core CPI May
April saw Japanese inflation accelerating, with CPI increasing to 3.5% YoY in April 2023 from 3.2% in April 2022. Core CPI (which excludes fresh food) rose to 3.4% in April 2023 from 3.1% in April 2022.
Japan Manufacturing, Services PMI June (Preliminary)
The headline au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), an indicator of manufacturing performance, was at 50.6 in May, up from 49.5 in April, registering above the neutral 50.0 value for the first time since October 2022. The Services PMI was at 55.9 in May 2023, compared to 55.4 in April.
June 23 (Friday)
US Manufacturing, Services PMI June (Preliminary)
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for May dropped for the first time in five months to 48.4. The Services PMI rose to 55.1 in May from 53.6 in April. The Composite PMI rose to 54.5 in May from 53.4 in April.
UK Manufacturing, Services PMI June (Preliminary)
Britain’s manufacturing output fell for a third month in a row in May. The final reading of the S&P Global/CIPS UK manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was 47.1, down from 47.8 in April and further below the 50 threshold that separates growth from contraction. UK PMI Services was finalized at 55.2 in May, down slightly from April’s 55.9. The Composite PMI fell to 54.0 in May from 54.9 in April.
Eurozone Manufacturing, Services PMI June (Preliminary)
Eurozone manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell in six months in May to 44.8 from April’s 45.8, according to latest data from the Hamburg Commercial Bank (HVOB) and S&P Global. The Eurozone Services PMI was 55.1 in May 2023 56.2 in April. The Composite PMI was 52.8 in May 2023, below April’s 11-month high of 54.1. The 50 mark separating growth from contraction.
