European countries will be forced to put their economies onto a war footing to support Ukraine if a Donald Trump administration pulls US support, Theresa May’s former chief of staff has warned.
Lord Barwell, who served in No 10 at the height of the previous Trump government, said Europe must be prepared to shift their entire economies more towards bolstering Kyiv due to the financial void that could be left should a future president Trump gain power.
The Tory peer also issued a note of caution to whichever party forms the next UK government after the election to be prepared for “chaos” and potential US “civil unrest” under another Trump term.
Mr Trump is the frontrunner in the Republican primaries to pick the party’s presidential candidate, and several polls have him ahead of current President Joe Biden in the US elections in November.
The businessman and reality TV star has so far refused to commit to continuing military backing for Ukraine amid weakening support across the US for the Ukraine war effort, and he has suggested he would be able to end the conflict in 24 hours if he is re-elected.
Lord Barwell said the prospect of a Trump second term should set alarm bells ringing across Europe.
“The first issue to be aware of is what he will mean for geopolitics and security,” he said. “Trump has been signalling that he could cut off support for Ukraine. That will leave massive decisions for Europe and whether they will fill the gap. This would effectively mean they have to turn their economies into war economies. That is a huge decision to have to make.”
According to the Kiel Institute, the US has provided nearly half – 47 per cent – of all military support to Ukraine, amounting to around $47bn, with EU nations, the UK, Norway and Canada making up the rest.
But any withdrawal of military aid will force Europe to near-double their military backing in order to arm Kyiv against Russia.
Lord Barwell also warned that it is unclear what a Trump presidency would mean for Nato, and whether the 77-year-old will cut US ties with the alliance.
“He could pull US forces back and demand Nato allies commit to far greater military spending to share the burden. Any such move could be hugely destabilising for Europe,” he said, while also raising fears that a Trump White House could spark a trade war with the EU.
“He has also spoken of tariffs on all imports into the US,” Lord Barwell added. “There could be an exemption for the UK, but there is certainly no guarantee and it would spark a trade war between the EU and US.”
The veteran of the May years also said the turbulence that a Trump administration can bring can not be underestimated.
“The US is already a heavily polarised country,” the peer said. “Donald Trump is only going to make it more polarised. His immigration policies, and plans to deport millions of people, some of whom that have lived in the country for years, will cause huge anger and meet serious resistance. I don’t think it’s impossible that we could see civil unrest. I am very, very worried about the direction of their society.
“That is why I don’t think it is unreasonable to describe this as the most consequential election in post-war history. The risks are significant and I believe they are significantly underappreciated.”
A senior Tory source said the party had not yet established contact with the Trump campaign and was unlikely to do so until the result of the Republican primaries has been confirmed.
The source said: “Politically, there is relatively little we can learn from them given how different our systems really are.”
A former insider from the May administration told i that a Trump 2.0 win would be more of a challenge for an incoming Labour government than a Conservative one.
“I think the Labour base will be even more antithetical to Trump and that will be a challenge for PM Starmer on the basis that there are there’s a very important diplomatic relationship that underpins governance and co-operation between the two countries,” the source said. “That can’t just depend on personalities. The security co-operation, the economic ties – all of those things that have to be preserved. They’re really, really important for our country.”
It comes as shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy is due to spell out Labour’s foreign policy plans for 2024 in a speech to the Fabian Society on Saturday.
On Ukraine, Mr Lammy will warn “we in Europe risk taking our eye off the ball”, calling Russian President Vladimir Putin a “ringleader of a new form of fascism” and the war in Ukraine a “generational security challenge and a long-term material security threat to Europe”.
Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson backed Donald Trump to continues supporting Urkaine, however, despite his campaigning rhetoric.
Endorsing the former US president for a second term in his Daily Mail column, Mr Johnson wrote:
“It was Donald Trump who gave the Ukrainians those Javelin anti-tank weapons which — together with the UK NLAW missiles and other weapons — were so valuable to the Ukrainians in the battle for Kyiv…”
“So, whatever they now say about President Trump, I cannot believe that he will want to go down in history as the president who abandoned a country that he has already signally helped to keep free.
“To all his Ukraine-sceptic supporters in the Republican Party, I say: how can you possibly make America great again if you allow a Russian tyrant to inflict a total humiliation on the West?”
