The Conservatives gather in Manchester this weekend, giving them an opportunity to celebrate 13 years in power. Yet there is a risk the event might take on the air of a wake.
The party finds itself on average 18 points behind Labour in the polls, little better than its position 12 months ago after Liz Truss was displaced as prime minister by Rishi Sunak. Meanwhile, YouGov’s data suggests that Mr Sunak’s initial personal popularity has largely disappeared, leaving him barely any more popular than his party.
In short, the Conservatives appear to be heading unwaveringly on a course that leads towards heavy defeat in an election that is now at most little more than a year away.
But why do they find themselves in this position – and thus need to engineer a radical change in the public mood if they are to be in power after the next election? Some potentially valuable clues are to be found in the answers to two questions included in a poll conducted by the Public First agency for the Conservative-inclined Onward think tank at the beginning of August.
The company asked voters first of all what they thought the main achievements of the Conservatives had been over the last 13 years.
The most widely acknowledged by far was securing early access to a Covid vaccine – picked out by 40 per cent. Meanwhile, around one in five reckoned Brexit and gay marriage could be added to the list (though Conservatives themselves were keener on the former than the latter). Nothing else was selected by many more than one in ten.
Then, Public First asked what the party’s main failures were. Top of the list, again on 40 per cent, was too little effort on the NHS. At the same time, between a quarter and a third identified the cost of living, Liz Truss’ handling of the economy, high levels of immigration, and lockdown parties. In addition, Brexit was the one subject that appeared on both sides of the ledger. The list of failures is rather longer than the list of perceived achievements.
There is also clear evidence in the polls that those who voted Conservative in 2019, and who think that things have gone badly, are less likely to say they would vote Conservative again than those Tory supporters who think rather better about how things have been going. In short, the perception of failure is associated with defection.
Trouble is, 2019 Conservative voters are twice as likely to think the health service has gotten a lot worse than they are to believe it has got better
For example, on health, the British Election Study’s big internet panel shows that just 45 per cent of those who voted Conservative in 2019 and who think the NHS has gotten a lot worse say they would vote Conservative again. In contrast, three-quarters of those who feel the NHS has gotten better say they will vote for the party again.
Trouble is, 2019 Conservative voters are twice as likely to think the health service has gotten a lot worse than they are to believe it has got better.
Similarly, on the economy, the same study shows that only around a half of those 2019 Conservatives who think the economy has gotten a lot worse now say they will vote Conservative – compared with three-quarters of those who are less critical of the state of the economy.
And nearly two in five 2019 Conservatives think the economy has gotten a lot worse.
Fortunately, for the Conservatives, very few of their supporters have changed their mind about Brexit – though only one in three of those who have, and would now vote to rejoin the EU, would back the party again.
However, on immigration the story is different. Whether or not 2019 Conservative voters think immigration has gone up or down makes relatively little difference to whether they would vote Conservative again. According to the recent polling conducted by Redfield & Wilton for the UK in a Changing Europe think tank, the difference is no more than five points.
The picture is much the same in respect of “illegal” immigration, on which the prime minister has placed so much emphasis with his pledge to stop the boats.
While Conservative supporters are particularly keen to see immigration reduced, the government’s perceived failure to do so is not something that is dissuading them from voting Conservative again.
Meanwhile, collectively the polls conducted since the government’s latest attempt to appeal to its core voters by slowing the implementation of some net zero measures has had – at most – no more than a marginal impact on the party’s standing in the polls.
The message is clear. If the Conservatives are to regain their lost support, they need to crack the hard nut of solving Britain’s fiscal and economic crisis – a weak economy, an inflationary spiral, and poorly functioning public services. That means cutting NHS times as well as halving inflation. Trying to focus voters’ attention elsewhere, such as on so-called “wedge issues” like immigration and net zero, is unlikely to be enough.
John Curtice is professor of politics, Strathclyde University, and senior research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research and ‘The UK in a Changing Europe’. He is also co-host of the ‘Trendy’ podcast
