In the UK, November GDP figures will be released on Friday. The ONS won’t announce crucial Q4 GDP data until the middle of February, but monthly numbers should give us a sense of whether the economy managed to eke out positive growth over the final part of the year. The Bank of England’s latest forecasts imply 0.6 per cent growth over the quarter, a downgrade on their August projections.
In the US, a plethora of inflation figures will be released in the second half of the week. The annual rate of CPI inflation has fallen to 3.1 per cent – and central bankers see little justification for further rate hikes. In the December meeting, Fed chair Jerome Powell confirmed that the policy rate “is likely at or near its peak for this tightening cycle”.
When the Fed will be persuaded to start making cuts is another matter. Given that core inflation is still running at a rate of 4 per cent, policymakers could be cautious about cutting rates in Q1. Nevertheless, analysts at Capital Economics think that “there is mounting evidence that the post-pandemic inflation scare is over and we expect interest rates to be cut significantly” in 2024.
Monday 8 January
China: New Yuan loans, loan growth, M2 money supply
Euro area: Sentix Economic Index, business climate; consumer, economic, industrial and services confidence indicators
Japan: Real household income
Tuesday 9 January
Euro area: Unemployment
US: NFIB small business index, trade balance
Wednesday 10 January
Japan: Real wages, total cash earnings
US: Wholesale inventories, wholesale trade
Thursday 11 January
Japan: Leading Index, bank loans, current account, FDI
US: Inflation, core inflation
Friday 12 January
China: FDI
UK: Construction output, November GDP, index of services, industrial production, manufacturing production, trade balance
US: PPI inflation
