Dip in Rents Could Put a Dent in Inflation
4 minutes ago
Rents are going down and they could take inflation with it, according to an analysis by Morgan Stanley Wednesday.
The rent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics this week showed a noteworthy 4.7% year-over-year drop in rents during the fourth quarter. It’s the first time the index has dropped since 2010 and it comes after double-digit-percentage climbs in 2021 and 2022.
Housing costs are a component of both the PCE and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation measurement. Inflation has cooled from its highs in 2022, but the latest CPI report showed inflation in December ticked higher to 3.4%, partially because housing payments remained high.
According to a note from Morgan Stanley economists led by Diego Anzoategui, the fall in rent data is likely a precursor to lower overall inflation levels.
“Just as an initial jobless claim today is a continuing claim tomorrow, a new rental lease today is an existing lease tomorrow, which naturally implies that new-lease data can provide useful signals about future housing CPI/PCE prints,” the note said.
Morgan Stanley is projecting rent inflation to further decrease in the second half of the year, though it’s not expected to fall below pre-Covid levels due to a robust jobs market.
“And the historical relationship is clear, low unemployment means more shelter inflation,” the note said.
Tech Layoffs Aren’t Spreading To Other Industries, Indeed Says
2 hr 38 min ago
To look at the headlines about the tech industry, you might think the job market and the economy are headed down the tubes—but that impression is misleading, according to data from job hunting site Indeed.
The job market in the tech industry is indeed taking a big hit. Big-name companies including Amazon and eBay have announced layoffs recently, not to mention those at smaller firms including video game company Unity. Since the year began, 146 companies have laid off 24,365 people this year, according to trueup.io, a company that tracks tech layoff announcements. And 2024 is just getting started.
However, if you’re not in the tech industry, chances are your job is relatively safe, according to Nick Bunker, economic research director at Indeed’s hiring lab. That’s similar to the trend last year, when high-profile layoffs at tech companies didn’t dent the overall labor market, which had near-record low unemployment, according to government statistics.
“Last year’s batch of layoffs did not represent what was happening in the rest of the U.S. labor market; the same is true now,” Bunker said in a commentary Wednesday. “Both waves of tech layoffs appear to be mostly about rebalancing workforces to adjust to the current economic outlook after a burst of hiring in 2021.”
More than a broader labor trend, the latest layoffs may be a symptom of tech companies shifting resources to the latest buzzword: generative AI.
Still, there’s no doubt it’s pretty dismal for job hunters in the tech space, at least compared to last year, according to Indeed’s data. Job posts for software development jobs were down 44.5% compared to a year ago, with IT operations and helpdesk down 28.7% and information design and documentation down 37.7%, the company said.
Manufacturing, Services PMI Surge Ahead in First 2024 Reading
3 hr 16 min ago
A snapshot of the U.S. economy showed that it was off to a strong start to 2024, with trends improving in both the manufacturing and services sectors.
The S&P 500 flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for January came in better than expected for both sectors, S&P Global Market Intelligence reported today. The services sector PMI came in at 52.9 to hit its highest level in seven months, surging ahead of December’s reading of 51.4 and defying analyst forecasts of a dip to 51.2. The service sector accounts for about four-fifths of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).
The manufacturing PMI shot up to 50.3, rising for the first time in nine months, and running past analyst estimates of a 47.2 reading and last month’s result of 47.9. Goods producers registered their first rise in sales since October and the fastest jump since May 2022, the report showed.
The PMI data is the latest in a string of recent economic readings that came in better than expected, raising worries that the hot economy will keep the labor market tight and wages high, potentially extending the fight against inflation and pushing back anticipated interest rate cuts. The latest jobs report beat analyst estimates, while consumer sentiment has jumped as inflation fears fade.
-Terry Lane
‘Obamacare’ Has Never Been So Popular
3 hr 21 min ago
More than 21.3 million people enrolled in Affordable Care Act health insurance marketplace plans for the 2024 open enrollment period, a record high and a 16% surge from 2023, the White House said Wednesday.
The open enrollment period began in November and ran through Jan. 15, with some states extending it as late as Jan. 31.
Two major factors have increased the appeal of ACA plans, which are privately run health insurance plans subsidized by the federal government.
First, millions of people have been removed this year from Medicaid, the federal health insurance program for people with lower income after the expiration of a pandemic-era protection that prevented states, which administer the program, from removing ineligible beneficiaries. Many of those who lost their Medicaid health coverage can get it through the ACA marketplace instead.
Second, ACA plans have gotten a lot cheaper since pandemic-era subsidies were extended through 2025 by President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. Now, 80% of people who signed up for the ACA found coverage for less than $10 a month, the White House said.
New GDP Numbers Are Released Tomorrow-Here’s What to Expect
4 hr 13 min ago
If forecasters are correct, U.S. economic growth slowed sharply in the fourth quarter as high interest rates dragged the economy down, ending a surprising burst of growth fueled by consumer spending.
The output of the economy as measured by gross domestic product is expected to have grown at an inflation-adjusted annual rate of 2% in the fourth quarter, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and the Wall Street Journal. That would be less than half the 4.9% pace of the third quarter and the slowest in more than a year.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release official figures on Thursday.
If forecasts hold, the GDP figure would highlight how the Federal Reserve’s campaign of anti-inflation interest rate hikes has taken a toll on the economy, although far less than most economists had anticipated. Since March 2022, the Fed has raised its benchmark fed funds rate to a 22-year high and held it there, putting upward pressure on interest rates for all kinds of credit, including mortgages, car loans, and credit cards.
Read more about tomorrow’s GDP forecast here.
Mortgage Rates Rose on Lower Interest Rates Last Week
5 hr 5 min ago
With mortgage rates ebbing from the highs they reached in October, more homebuyers are being enticed back into the market.
Today’s data from the Mortgage Bankers Association show mortgage applications increased 3.7% last week, continuing a string of improving market activity. The data, which was adjusted for the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday, shows that mortgage applications were still about 15% lower than a year ago.
Mortgage rates surged to nearly 8% in the fall, forcing some buyers out of the market. With rates now averaging 6.6% for a fixed 30-year mortgage, more homebuyers are exploring their options.
Refinancing continued to be unpopular in the high-rate environment, falling 7% from the prior week, and was 8% lower than last year. The average mortgage loan was $377,100, MBA reported.
While dropping mortgage rates are bringing buyers back to the market, sellers are still reluctant to sell their homes because of the “lock-in” effect created by the higher rates. More mortgage applications can show increasing demand, potentially bringing more home sellers into a housing market where low inventory has pushed up prices, making homeownership increasingly unaffordable.
-Terry Lane
