Compared to some of the really big issues confronting the economy, Brexit is a sideshow. So why bother to leave the EU? The issue is essentially political. It is about the ability to vote in and out of office politicians who make the key decisions affecting our country. The EU is a profoundly undemocratic institution. The fact that our leaders have not yet followed through on this vote and put in place policies and laws that would make a big difference does not mean that the Brexit vote was a mistake.
It is early days. The UK joined what we now know as the EU in 1973. Do Remainers ask themselves if there were clear benefits from this decision in the years immediately afterwards? In fact, those were difficult times for the UK.
The EU is an institution pointing in several directions at once, trying to reconcile the irreconcilable, with forces pushing towards full union side by side with forces still trying to preserve the powers of nation states. Its economic performance has lagged behind the leading economies in the world because it tends to make the wrong decisions on a whole host of economic and other questions. Forming the euro has been the biggest mistake of all.
We managed to dodge that one but if we had stayed in the EU, we would have struggled to retain our semi-detached status. In all probability, eventually we would have been dragged into all sorts of madcap integrations ranging from currency and fiscal matters to defence and foreign affairs.
The benefits of being outside this failing organisation will manifest themselves over the coming decades as we are able to take different decisions from the EU on a wide range of issues, including the regulation of artificial intelligence.
Admittedly, if the UK makes a mess of its independence while the EU gets its act together, then we will have paid a not inconsiderable price for our exit. On the balance of the evidence, I believe that is unlikely. But only time will tell.
Roger Bootle is senior independent adviser to Capital Economics.
