Four years ago, the Tories were basking in the glow of a historic victory. Boris Johnson’s Conservatives had won a sizeable majority and had done so by attracting support from voters in the so-called Red Wall who had never voted for the Tories in their life.
Fast forward to today and Labour not only has a commanding lead but is also ahead in five of the seven segments of the electorate that More in Common has identified – including those Red Wall voters. The Tories face unwelcome headwinds from a public that think the country has become too expensive and public services too unreliable. If an election were to be held tomorrow, Sir Keir Starmer would be holding the keys to Downing Street the very next day.
So is all hope lost for the Conservatives? Or could they yet pull off an unlikely comeback? To answer that question, we’ve identified five factors that could yet help the Conservatives close the gap between now and the election.
The first and most important is electoral volatility. Gone are the days when people were set in their allegiances. People are now far more likely to change their minds about who to vote for – sometimes over a very short period of time.
That volatility has been on display in this Parliament – at the height of Boris’s popularity, one poll had the Conservatives as high as 54 per cent, in the wake of last year’s mini-Budget on the other hand the party slumped to as low as 14 per cent. These are extremes, but they show the electorate is highly responsive to political shocks.
We shouldn’t forget we’ve seen something similar happen in recent memory. Entering the 2017 election campaign, some polls had Labour sitting as low as 25 per cent, but on election day they hit 40 per cent – campaigns can and do matter.
The second factor is the so-called “Don’t Knows” – people who are likely to vote but don’t yet know for whom. While the Conservatives will have to target some Labour switchers to win a majority, they could hold Sir Keir Starmer to a hung parliament by focusing on this group of voters.
In doing so they should find themselves on friendly territory – nearly a quarter of the Don’t Knows come from a group that More in Common calls Backbone Conservatives – would-be core Tory voters who are currently fed up with the way the Government is performing. Already, we find when we force those who don’t know to choose, they are roughly 50 per cent more likely to choose the Tories than Labour. If the Conservatives can persuade these voters to come back to the fold – it will close the gap.
Then there is Reform UK. Our analysis for The Telegraph found that Reform UK could cost the Tories upwards of 30 seats if they continue to poll at current levels. But the truth is that Reform UK’s performance in by-elections to date suggests those polling figures could be exaggerated.
Some Reform UK voters will never vote Conservative , but if the Tories can tempt at least some – or persuade Reform UK to stand down as Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party did in 2019 – it will save them seats.
The fourth factor is less about the Tories and more the public’s lukewarm reception to their opponents. Sunak’s popularity has cratered this year – a recent YouGov poll found that he was now as unpopular as his party. A “President Rishi” campaign is unlikely.
However Sir Keir Starmer’s approval ratings are currently underwater too – something historically unusual for a party on the cusp of regaining power – both Sir Tony Blair and Lord Cameron enjoyed positive approval before they took the premiership.
This matches what we hear in our focus groups – where there is a feeling that Labour may have reached “peak not being the Tories” with the lack of a positive offer of their own leaving the public asking what, if anything, Labour actually stands for.
If the Tories’ troubles persist, and the chaos we’ve seen over recent months carries on, a lack of love for the Labour Leader won’t matter. But if Sunak can steady the ship, then apathy towards Sir Keir could allow the Conservatives to do better than expected on a turnout that may well hit a record low.
But central to any Tory comeback is the state of the economy. For all the debates about immigration or culture wars, it’s still “the economy, stupid”. For months, the cost of living has far outstripped any other comparable issue of concern on our tracker, with the public’s financial struggles eroding the Tories poll ratings.
But are there signs of optimism? Research company GfK has found that UK consumer confidence rose for the second month in December. In our latest polling, cost of living fell as an issue of concern by five points, while in recent focus groups, we have heard more than once people suggest we are “turning a corner”. If, and it is a big if, that sense of improvement continues there is at least a chance the Tories can enter the election on a platform of “don’t risk the recovery with Labour”.
This requires a lot of things to go right for the Tories and Rishi Sunak’s Government will need to show better political strategy and the Conservative Party better discipline than they have done to date. The recovery path I’ve outlined is far from the most obvious – and like many who study public opinion, I think it is more likely that we will see a Labour landslide than a Sunak premiership after the election.
With all that said, if the Tories do pull off a shock win, it is these factors that will help to explain why.
Luke Tryl is the UK Director of More in Common
