Economy

European stocks climb as UK economy escapes recession


File photo dated 04/10/16 of an electronic ticker tape showing the FTSE 100 inside the London Stock Exchange. The FTSE 100 is celebrating its 40th anniversary, as firms from Barclays to Sainsbury's remain a fixture of the UK's top stock market index. Dubbed the Footsie, the index containing the biggest 100 companies on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) launched on January 3 1984. Issue date: Wednesday January 3, 2024.

The FTSE 100 and European stocks opened higher on Friday as the UK economy grew in the first quarter. (Nicholas .T. Ansell, PA Images)

The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) and European stocks continued their positive run on Friday as the UK economy grew by a better-than-expected 0.6% between January and March.

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), services output was up by an estimated 0.7%, while production output grew 0.8%. Meanwhile, construction was down 0.9%.

This rise in GDP means that the economy is no longer in a technical recession, after activity fell in the third and fourth quarters of last year.

  • London’s benchmark index was 0.6% higher in early trade, jumping passed the 8400 point mark for the first time

  • Germany’s DAX (^GDAXI) rose 0.6% and the CAC (^FCHI) in Paris headed 0.5% into the green

  • The pan-European STOXX 600 (^STOXX) was up 0.6%

  • Wall Street is set to open higher as S&P 500 futures (ES=F), Dow futures (YM=F) and Nasdaq futures (NQ=F) were all in the green

  • The pound was marginally higher against the dollar (GBPUSD=X) at 1.2531

Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “The 0.6% growth registered in the first three months of the year was higher than forecast, with the green shoots seen in January and February flowering into a stronger growth spurt in March.

!Confidence breeds more optimism, and with the economy showing signs of repairing and the FTSE 100 rallying higher, the glass half full sentiment is settling in. The blue-chip index has powered higher in early trade and set fresh records, after a sheen of positivity has descended on the UK.”

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  • British Airways owner hails strong quarter

    File photo dated 09/10/19 of British Airways planes at Heathrow Airport. The owner of airlines British Airways and Aer Lingus has said its earnings have soared in recent months thanks to higher sales, lower fuel costs and stronger demand across its airlines. It reported an operating profit for the first three months of the year of 68 million euro (£58.5 million), up from the nine million euro (£7.7 million) reported this time last year. Issue date: Friday May 10, 2024.File photo dated 09/10/19 of British Airways planes at Heathrow Airport. The owner of airlines British Airways and Aer Lingus has said its earnings have soared in recent months thanks to higher sales, lower fuel costs and stronger demand across its airlines. It reported an operating profit for the first three months of the year of 68 million euro (£58.5 million), up from the nine million euro (£7.7 million) reported this time last year. Issue date: Friday May 10, 2024.

    International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG.L), owner of airlines British Airways and Aer Lingus, has said its earnings have soared in recent months thanks to higher sales, lower fuel costs and stronger demand.

    It reported an operating profit for the first three months of the year of €68m (£58.5m), up from €9m last year.

    It was boosted by increased demand over the Easter holiday and added that it was seeing strong summer bookings.

    “Our transformation initiatives and increased demand, including over the Easter holidays, have delivered another very good set of results with improvement to both revenue and operating profit,” Luis Gallego, chief executive, said in a statement.

    He added that IAG’s exposure to the Middle East was very small so it hadn’t seen a big impact from the conflict there.

    Shares were 1.1% higher on the back of the news.

  • Pound rises as UK economy grows

    The pound (GBPUSD=X) is currently up against the dollar as the UK economy exited recession at the start of this year.

    Sterling has risen 0.1% versus the US greenback to $1.2531, even after Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England (BoE) pointed to interest rate cuts later this year.

    The pound was also up 0.1% against the euro, trading around €1.162.

  • FTSE hits fresh high

    The FTSE has reached another all-time high in London today, surging passed the 8400 point mark for the first time, hitting a new intraday high of 8431 points.

    London’s benchmark index has been on a strong rally since mid-April, and is on track for its third weekly rise in a row. It has gained 9.2% so far this year.

    Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said:

    “Confidence breeds more optimism, and with the economy showing signs of repairing and the FTSE 100 rallying higher, the glass half full sentiment is settling in. The blue-chip index has powered higher in early trade and set fresh records, after a sheen of positivity has descended on the UK.”

    Meanwhile, Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, said:

    “After the FTSE 100 hit a record high for the fourth straight session on Thursday, the UK index has opened higher yet again and is potentially on track to close at another all-time high.

  • UK economy growth better than G7 rivals

    The British economy has grown faster than its G7 rivals at the start of this year. Compared to the 0.6% growth recorded in January-March, here is how the others performed:

    • The US rose 0.4%

    • Germany rose 0.2%

    • France rose 0.2%

    • Italy rose 0.3%

    Canada is estimated to have also grown by 0.6% and Japan is predicted to have grown by 0.2%.

  • UK construction sector remains weak

    File photo dated 24/07/23 of a construction worker on a building site near South Bank, London. The UK's construction sector contracted heavily last month as the housebuilding sector had one of its worst months since 2009, an influential survey has suggested. Companies said that projects to build homes were being cut back as demand weakens and the cost of borrowing rises. Issue date: Thursday October 5, 2023.File photo dated 24/07/23 of a construction worker on a building site near South Bank, London. The UK's construction sector contracted heavily last month as the housebuilding sector had one of its worst months since 2009, an influential survey has suggested. Companies said that projects to build homes were being cut back as demand weakens and the cost of borrowing rises. Issue date: Thursday October 5, 2023.

    Construction output in Britain fell by 0.9% in January to March period, for the second quarter in a row. This means construction is in recession.

    Output is 0.7% lower than the same quarter a year ago, the ONS said on Friday.

    The fall reflects a decline in new work of 1.8% driven by private commercial new work, which fell by 5.3%.

    However, repair and maintenance increased 0.3% due to housing associations re-directing their budgets towards repairs and upgrading “to deal with problems such as damp arising from tenants using less heating because of the higher cost of living”.

    Wet weather also dampened construction activity, as storms kept workers off building sites.

    Nicholas Hyett, investment manager at Wealth Club, said:

    “Construction remains the one area of weakness, particularly in the commercial sector. That’s no surprise.

    “Real estate is particularly exposed to the effect of higher interest rates, and the upheaval of the pandemic is still rocking the office and retail sector – with increased home working and online shopping permanently changing demand. That’s not a trend that’s unique to the UK.”

  • Chancellor and PM on GDP figures

    Here’s what Jeremy Hunt and Rishi Sunak had to say on the back of the news that the UK economy grew by 0.6% in the first quarter of this year.

    The chancellor said:

    “There is no doubt it has been a difficult few years, but today’s growth figures are proof that the economy is returning to full health for the first time since the pandemic.

    “We’re growing this year and have the best outlook among European G7 countries over the next six years, with wages growing faster than inflation, energy prices falling and tax cuts worth £900 to the average worker hitting bank accounts.”

    The prime minister said:

    The economy has turned a corner. Today’s news proves that. We know things are still tough for many people, but the plan is working, and we must stick to it.

  • UK exits recession as economy grows

    The UK has escaped recession after the economy grew at the start of the year, according to official figures.

    The economy grew by a better-than-expected 0.6% between January and March, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

    A recession, which is defined as two consecutive three-month periods where the economy contracts, was declared in February.

    Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS, said:

    “There was broad-based strength across the service industries with retail, public transport and haulage, and health all performing well.”

    She added that car manufacturers also had a good quarter.

    Services output was up by an estimated 0.7%, while production output grew 0.8%. Meanwhile, construction was down 0.9%.

  • Will Biden’s new China tariffs spark market volatility?

    President Joe Biden speaks during an event to celebrate the 2023 WNBA champion Las Vegas Aces, in the East Room of the White House, Thursday, May 9, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)President Joe Biden speaks during an event to celebrate the 2023 WNBA champion Las Vegas Aces, in the East Room of the White House, Thursday, May 9, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

    President Joe Biden speaks during an event to celebrate the 2023 WNBA champion Las Vegas Aces, in the East Room of the White House, Thursday, May 9, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci) (Evan Vucci, Associated Press)

    Joe Biden’s reported fresh China tariffs may trigger short-term market volatility, Nigel Green at deVere Group has warned.

    It comes as Bloomberg first announced that the US president is set to announce new tariffs on China as soon as next Tuesday, targeting strategic sectors including electric vehicles, semiconductors and solar equipment, according to two people familiar with the matter.

    Existing levies are expected to also be maintained.

    Green said:

    “The imposition of tariffs on these critical sectors signals a potential disruption to global supply chains.

    “Companies heavily reliant on imports from China for components like batteries and solar cells are likely to face increased costs, impacting their profit margins.

    ​“This uncertainty can be expected to lead to a knee-jerk sell-off in stocks of companies directly involved in these industries, such as green-tech, as investors seek to mitigate risk.”

    The news builds on the President’s calls last month to extend tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminium.

  • Asia and US stocks

    Stocks in Asia rose overnight and are on course for a third week of gains. The Nikkei (^N225) rose 0.4% on the day in Japan, while the Hang Seng (^HSI) surged 2.3% in Hong Kong.

    The Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) flat at the end of the session with blue-chip shares marginally down as geopolitical concerns weighed on sentiment following a trade restriction list issued by the Biden administration and potential new China tariffs.

    Across the pond, the Dow Jones (^DJI) rose 0.9%, closing at 39,387.76, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) was up 0.5% at 5,214.08 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) climbed 0.3%, reaching 16,346.26 at close.

    In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bonds eased to 4.45% from 4.50% late on Wednesday.

  • Coming up…

    Good morning, and welcome back to last markets live blog of the week. Today is GDP day in the UK, but we have lots of other news to keep you busy.

    Here’s a quick look at what’s on the agenda for today:

    • 7am: Trading updates: International Airlines, S4 Capital

    • 7am: UK GDP report for March, and the first quarter of 2024

    • 7am: UK trade report for March

    • 12.30pm: European Central Bank to release accounts of its last monetary policy meeting

    • 3pm: University of Michigan’s survey of US consumer sentiment

Watch: How does inflation affect interest rates?

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