It has come down from a peak of 11.1pc in October 2022 to 2pc in the latest figures.
I reckon that there is a good chance that the rate will fall further to about 1.5pc in the next few months.
This is not to say that there is no inflation danger going forward.
Pay inflation has come down only slowly and under a Labour government, the position of the trade unions would probably be strengthened, along with workers’ rights.
There could be a further large increase in both the national minimum wage and the national living wage.
So it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that inflation will resurge at some point and require a further dose of medicine for it to be suppressed all over again.
But for the time being at least the fall in inflation is bringing a big improvement in personal finances.
Real personal disposable incomes may grow by about 3pc both this year and next.
Unsurprisingly, this improvement is leading to increased consumer spending.
Even though official interest rates have not risen any further this year, the previous phase of rising interest rates has continued to exert a drag on households’ spending as people came off previous fixed-mortgage deals and had to refinance at higher interest rates.
This drag is now reaching its peak.
The favourable short-term picture of inflation should allow interest rates to fall a bit, with the first reduction perhaps coming in August.
Against this background, consumers have been cautious and the savings ratio has risen significantly. That may now change.
As people become a bit more confident, they are likely to increase their spending in line with their incomes.
Consumer spending may increase this year by about 1pc and I reckon that it could rise by 2pc next year and in 2026.
