The outlook for emerging markets is brighter than it is for developed markets when it comes to growth, inflation and public debt, Jean-Charles (JC) Sambor, Head of Emerging Market Debt, tells Daniel Morris, Chief Market Strategist, on our latest Talking Heads podcast.
While China may look like the exception now, increasingly firm support from Beijing should trigger a rebound in the next few quarters from the problems of deflation and property market weakness plaguing the economy today. Compared to China, India is likely to see much stronger growth and contained inflation, while improved policies should allow Turkey to do better than it did last year.
On hard currency debt, spreads over US Treasuries are likely to narrow, leaving EM high-yield bonds in particular with scope for outsized returns. Local currency debt is at a turning point as it looks set to reverse last year’s US-dollar-related weakness given the potential for EM central banks to cut policy rates this year and next. As for risks, JC says they were largely priced in during last year’s “perfect storm”.
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