Sterling pauses as weak UK economic data frames BoE policy meeting

LONDON, Oct 30 (Reuters) – Sterling was broadly flat against the dollar and euro on Monday as traders looked ahead to a Bank of England (BoE) meeting on Thursday where rates are expected to be held and the outlook is likely to be more in focus after a run of weak UK economic data.

The British pound has largely been on the back foot in currency markets in recent weeks as risk appetite has faded, weighed by jitters in the stock market and war in the Middle East.

Currency analysts have said that deteriorating UK economic indicators – including jobs data last week that showed the labour market has lost some of its inflationary heat – have underscored market bets on the BoE holding rates.

BoE data on Monday showed British lenders in September approved the lowest number of home loans since January, adding to signs of a sluggish property market.

Sterling was last trading flat on the dollar at $1.21250 and down 0.1% on the euro at 87.25 pence.

Currency analysts at MUFG said in a note that the BoE was likely at the peak of its rate tightening cycle and that the key would now be “communication in terms of assessing the prospects of a pivot toward a more dovish stance over coming meetings”.

“We are likely some distance from that for the BoE but certainly most of the data released since the last meeting in September has pointed to weak economic activity,” they added.

“That may well mean the growth projections in the Monetary Policy Report could show a downgrade from the forecasts in August,” the analysts said.

The yield on two-year British government bonds fell to its lowest since mid-June in early trade on Monday as investors further scaled back bets on BoE rate rises. Markets were putting just a 6% chance of the BoE raising the rate on Thursday.

The vast majority of economists polled by Reuters this month said the BoE would leave rates at 5.25%.

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