INDIA RUPEE-India rupee to weaken but RBI may help limit losses, traders say -October 03, 2023 at 10:45 pm EDT

MUMBAI, Oct 4 (Reuters) – The Indian rupee is likely to
open marginally lower on Wednesday as upbeat economic data in
the United States keeps pushing Treasury yields higher.

However, continued intervention from the Reserve Bank of
India (RBI) is likely to limit the depreciation in the rupee,
traders said.

Non-deliverable forwards indicate that the rupee
will open at around 82.24-83.25 against the U.S. dollar compared
with a close at 83.2050 in the previous session.

“The depreciation in the rupee will be limited on account of
likely invention by central bank,” a foreign exchange trader at
a state-run bank said.

The RBI is likely to be active in the non-deliverable
forward market, before the spot market opens in India, to limit
pressure on the local unit, the trader added.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.85% in Asia,
the highest since August 2007, and was hovering near that level.

U.S. job openings rose more than expected in August,
signalling a tight labour market.

Persistent tightness in the labour market could prompt the
U.S. Federal Reserve to further hike policy rates, hurting
currencies like the rupee.

The dollar index was slightly higher in Asia at 107.13 but
off its highest level since November 2022 hit on Tuesday.

Asian currencies were weaker, with the Korean won, down by
nearly 1%, leading losses.

The combination of high yields and a strong dollar is
placing considerable pressure on emerging market assets, DBS
Bank said in a note.

“We are not convinced these dynamics can be sustained and
expect volatility to be elevated.”

Investors await U.S. labour market data and the RBI’s
monetary policy decision due later this week.

The RBI is widely expected to keep rates unchanged.

KEY INDICATORS:

** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at
83.34; onshore one-month forward premium at 12.50 paise

** USD/INR NSE October futures settled at 83.3025 on Tuesday

** USD/INR October forward premium at 10.25 paise

** Dollar index up at 107.09

** Brent crude futures down 0.2% at $90.7 per barrel

** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.84%

** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $344.8 mln
worth of Indian shares on Sept. 29

** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $103.3 mln
worth of Indian bonds on Sept. 29
(Reporting by Jaspreet Kalra; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala)