NEW YORK (Jan 2): The dollar rose on the first trading day of the year, supported by higher US yields while investors waited for US jobs data and European inflation numbers for clues on central banks’policies.
The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six counterparts, rose 0.7%, on track for its biggest daily percentage gain since October.
It fell 2% in 2023, snapping two years of gains due to investor expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut rates significantly this year while the economy remains resilient.
Underpinning the dollar’s gains was a move higher in US yields. Benchmark 10-year notes were up 7.1 basis points to 3.931%, eying their biggest daily increase in more than three weeks.
While the dollar came under pressure last month after the Federal Reserve indicated that it would cut rates in 2024, Brown Brothers Harriman & Co global head of currency strategy Win Thin said “markets are coming to realize that the US economy remains robust” and is likely to stay robust this year.
But while Thin argues that “a soft landing would likely lead to 2-3 insurance cuts in 2024” the market is pricing in six rate cuts this year.
So until these expectations shift, the dollar could stay “under pressure and vulnerable,” he said.
On the other side of the dollar’s ascent was the euro which dipped 0.8% to US$1.0956 as traders digested data showing euro zone factory activity contracted in December for an 18th straight month, and sterling GBP=D3was last trading at $1.262, down 0.81% on the day.
The Japanese yen weakened 0.56% versus the greenback at 141.66 per dollar.
Investors have a fairly busy week ahead with a slew of economic data including European inflation data and US data on job openings and non-farm payrolls, which will help shape market expectations regarding monetary policy moves from the Fed and European Central Bank.
Minutes from the most recent meeting of the Fed’s rate setting Federal Open Market Committee in December are scheduled for release on Wednesday and will provide further insight into the central bankers’ thinking.
Markets are now pricing in an 82% chance of interest rate cuts from the Fed to start from March, according to CME FedWatch tool, with over 150 basis points (bps) of easing anticipated this year.
Traders were also processing volatileoil prices amid fears of potential disruption to Middle East supply after the latest attack on a container ship in the Red Sea.
That, however, could not help currencies of oil-exporting countries hold off the stronger greenback.
The dollar climbed 1.4% on the Norwegian crown and 0.6% on the Canadian dollar while the Australian dollar dipped 0.44% against the greenback.
The crypto world started the year with a bang, with bitcoin up 3.25% after earlier touching US$45,912.48, its highest level since April 2022, on rising expectations that the US Securities and Exchange Commission will soon approve exchange-traded spot bitcoin funds.
