Currencies

CEE MARKETS-Currencies flit sideways, EU funds remain in focus


By Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk and Pawel Florkiewicz WARSAW, Dec 16 (Reuters) – Central European currencies remained relatively stable on Friday while traders followed developments in the row between Warsaw and Brussels on the rule of law, which is blocking Poland’s access to European Union recovery funds. The Polish zloty rose 0.1% to 4.6955 versus the euro. Poland’s government said on Tuesday it had agreed amendments with Brussels amendments to a judiciary bill that would free up billions in funds. The bill was due to be debated in parliament on Thursday, but was taken off the agenda after the country’s president voiced concerns. A deputy parliament speaker said it would probably be debated at a sitting in January, after consultations with the president and a junior coalition partner of the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party who is critical of the bill. “The zloty remains stable within the range that has been in force for over a month and we do not expect that to change today,” Bank Millenium said in a report. “We assume, however, that Thursday’s quite unexpected decision to remove the law on the Supreme Court from the agenda … means that the EUR/PLN exchange rate may move closer to the upper limit of the horizontal trend, ie. 4.7070.” Investors will also be watching the last Polish bond switch tender of the year at 1100 GMT. Elsewhere, the forint was 0.2% stronger on the day and trading at 406.550 per euro, still supported by a deal this week with the EU over 5.8 billion euros ($6.15 billion) of recovery funds. The Czech crown was unchanged at 24.2550 per euro. Both the National Bank of Hungary and Czech National Bank will hold rate-setting meetings next week. Morgan Stanley said it expected no change in rates in Hungary on Tuesday, but “the deteriorating inflation outlook is likely to keep the central bank leaning towards more tightening should FX depreciation resume”. In the Czech Republic, Morgan Stanley said it expected the central bank to keep rates at their current level until the third quarter of 2023, when it sees a first 25 basis points cut. Poland’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) could cut rates in 2024, central banker Gabriela Maslowska said in an article published on Friday, adding that it would be best to keep borrowing costs stable for several months. Stock markets in the region were mostly down, with blue-chip indexes in Warsaw and Budapest falling more than 1% each. CEE SNAPSHOT AT MARKETS 0940 CET CURRENCIES Latest Previo Daily Change us bid close change in 2022 EURCZK Czech 0 % % EURHUF Hungary 00 % EURPLN Polish % EURRON Romania % EURHRK Croatia % EURRSD Serbian 50 % % Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previo Daily Change us close change in 2022 .PX Prague 1167.73 1171.3 -0.31% 400 .BUX Budapes 44315.57 44809. -1.10% -12.63 t 64 % .WIG20 Warsaw <.WIG20 1737.69 1756.5 -1.07% -23.35 > 2 % .BETI Buchare 11915.25 11914. +0.01 -8.77% st 53 % .SBITO Ljublja <.SBITO 1068.18 1071.4 -0.30% -14.92 P na P> 4 % .CRBEX Zagreb <.CRBEX 1936.73 1934.9 +0.09 -6.86% > 8 % .BELEX Belgrad <.BELEX 811.58 811.58 +0.00 -1.12% 15 e 15> % .SOFIX Sofia <.SOFIX 603.14 602.48 +0.11 -5.12% > % Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs change Bund in Czech spread Republi c CZ2YT= 0 ps CZ5YT= ps CZ10YT ps Poland PL2YT= ps PL5YT= ps PL10YT ps FORWARD 3×6 6×9 9×12 3M interb ank Czech Hungary Poland Note: are for ask prices FRA quotes ******************************************** ****************** ($1 = 0.9424 euros) (Reporting by Pawel Florkiewicz and Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk in Warsaw and Anita Komuves in Budapest; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)



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