Week Ahead – US retail sales and earnings, major Chinese data, and UK inflation and employment readings

US

This week Wall Street will learn how quickly the US consumer is weakening and if the manufacturing part of the economy is close to entering recovery mode. The US retail sales report for September is expected to show monthly sales increased 0.3%, down from the 0.6% in the previous month. Sales excluding cars and gasoline are expected to rise 0.1%, a tick lower than the August reading.  The Empire Manufacturing survey is expected to show the September surprise 1.9 expansion was not the beginning of a new trend as the headline reading falls to -5.0.  

Much attention will fall on earnings season and a lot of Fed speak.  Big earnings for the week will come from American Express, Bank of America, J&J, Lockheed Martin, Morgan Stanely, Netflix, Procter & Gamble, and Tesla. 

The upcoming week is filled with Fed speak, as traders will focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Economic Club of New York and with the release of their Beige Book. The Fed hawks Bowman and Waller will draw extra attention to see if they are close to abandoning their calls for further tightening.     

Washington DC will remain in the spotlight as House Republicans struggle to elect a new House speaker.  

Eurozone

Christine Lagarde is once again the highlight with appearances over the weekend likely to attract interest. That said, I’m not sure how much we can learn at this point, we’ve heard a lot from the ECB President recently. That aside, the final HICP inflation reading will be of interest although revisions are that common and when they do occur, they’re often small.

UK 

There are a number of key economic releases to watch out for next week, the most obvious being CPI inflation on Wednesday but jobs figures on Tuesday and retail sales on Friday will also be very closely monitored. Then there’s BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s appearance over the weekend which could offer important insight after such a close vote at the last meeting. Huw Pill also appears on Monday.

Russia

Inflation rose faster than expected in September which will keep the pressure on the Russian central bank despite having already raised rates aggressively. Next up it’s PPI and the CBR will be hoping for some better news. 

South Africa

Wednesday is the big day next week with inflation data due first and retail sales later on. Inflation is well within the SARB’s 3-6% target range but it won’t take much to make them nervous again and stimulate debate around the potential need for another rate hike. 

Turkey

No major economic releases or events next week.

Switzerland

No major economic releases or events next week.

China

A busy week on the economic calendar. China central bank, PBoC’s decision on a set of key benchmark policy interest rates will be in the limelight while consensus is expecting another month of no rate cut on the 1-year Medium-Term Lending Facility rate at 2.50% out on Monday, and on Friday, the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime rates are expected to remain unchanged at 3.45% and 4.2%. However, the persistent liquidity crunch in the property market has led to an increased risk of an impending default by Country Garden, China’s largest private property developer on its due bonds’ principal repayments in recent days may spark a rethinking of China’s monetary policy that is currently operating on a targeted easing approach.

On Wednesday, Q3 GDP, retail sales, industrial production, and the unemployment rate for September will be released. The consensus is expecting a slip in Q3 GDP growth to 4.4% y/y from 6.3% y/y in Q2. If it turns out as expected, it will be the weakest quarterly growth and put the 2023 annual growth target of around 5% at risk of not achieving it.  

Industrial production is expected to ease slightly to 4.3% y/y from 4.5% y/y in August, together with retail sales from 4.6% y/y in August to 4.5% y/y for September. Meanwhile, the overall unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.2% but the concern still lies in the youth unemployment rate that has gone dark since August as China halted the release of such data. Its last publication was for June which saw the youth unemployment rate skyrocketed to an unprecedented level of 21.3%.

On Thursday, the House Price Index is forecasted to revert to a marginally positive growth of just 0.1% y/y in September from -0.1% y/y recorded in August.  

India

No key data releases.

Australia

On Tuesday, RBA meeting minutes will be released, and market participants will be on the lookout for any dovish comments after the official cash policy rate was left unchanged at 4.1% for the fourth consecutive meeting.

Employment change for September will be out on Thursday where it is forecasted to decrease to a smaller magnitude of +15K from +64.9K jobs added in August. So far, data from the ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures as of 12 October is just pricing in only a paltry chance of 5% on a 25 basis points hike in the cash policy rate to 4.35% for the next RBA monetary policy meeting in November.  

New Zealand

Q3 inflation rate will be released on Tuesday where it is forecasted to ease slightly to 5.8% y/y from 6% in Q2. If it turns out as expected, it will be the third consecutive quarter of moderation in inflationary pressures.

The Balance of Trade for September will be out on Friday, and the trade deficit is forecasted to shrink to NZ$-1.9 billion from NZ$-2.29 billion in August.

Japan

Two key data to focus on. Balance of Trade for September out on Thursday where the trade deficit is expected to shrink to JPY-425 billion from JPY-930.5 billion due to a reduction in imports growth to -12.9% y/y for September from 17.8% y/y in August while exports growth for September is expected to improve to 3.1% y/y from -0.8% y/y in August.

The key national inflation data for September will be released on Friday where the core inflation rate is expected to ease further to 2.7% y/y from 3.1% y/y in August, and the core-core inflation rate (excluding fresh food & energy) is also forecasted to dip to 4.1% y/y from 4.3% y/y in August. If these inflation numbers turn out as expected, the impetus for the Bank of Japan to normalise its negative interest rate policy in early 2024 is likely to be reduced.

Singapore

Balance of Trade and Non-oil exports (NODX) for September will be released on Tuesday. NODX growth has continued to decline in negative territory for eleven consecutive months where it plummeted by -20.1% y/y in August.

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Economic Calendar

Saturday, Oct. 14

Economic Events:

• New Zealand election: Expectations are for a rightward and populist shift
• Top EU diplomat Borrell speaks after a three-day visit to China.
• IMF/World Bank meetings run through Sunday. ECB President Lagarde participates in a panel at the G30 international banking seminar.
• BOE Gov Bailey speaks on the G30 panel on global economic and monetary challenges.

Sunday, Oct. 15

Economic Events:

• Polish holds a parliamentary election 
• India’s 20% export levy is set to expire.
• World Health Summit begins 

Monday, Oct. 16

Economic Data/Events:

• US Empire Manufacturing index
• China medium-term lending facility rate
• India wholesale prices
• Italy CPI
• Japan industrial production
• Philippines overseas remittances
• US Treasury Secretary Yellen meets with euro-area finance ministers in Luxembourg.
• RBA’s Jones speaks at AFR Cryptocurrency Summit.
• Fed’s Harker speaks at a Mortgage Bankers Association event in Philadelphia.
• ECB’s Villeroy speaks at the Fintech forum in Paris.
• BOE chief economist Pill speaks at OMFIF Economic and Monetary Policy Institute.
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov visits China through Wednesday.

Tuesday, Oct. 17

Economic Data/Events:

• US retail sales, business inventories, industrial production, cross-border investment
• Canada housing starts, CPI
• Germany ZEW survey expectations
• Japan tertiary industry index
• Mexico international reserves
• New Zealand CPI
• Singapore trade
• UK jobless claims, unemployment
• Earnings from Goldman Sachs and Bank of America
• Chinese President Xi Jinping hosts world leaders including President Putin at the Belt and Road Initiative forum in Beijing  
• BOE’s Dhingra is part of an inflation and cost of living panel at the Royal Economic Society Summit
• ECB’s de Guindos and Knot speak at the Joint ECB/IMF policy and research conference in Frankfurt.  
• ECB’s Centeno makes opening remarks at a conference in Lisbon about central banks’ sanctioning powers
• Fed’s Williams moderates discussion with Intel CEO at Economic Club of New York.
• Fed’s Barkin speaks to the Real Estate Roundtable in Washington.
• South African Reserve Bank (SARB) issues monetary policy review.

Wednesday, Oct. 18

Economic Data/Events:

• Federal Reserve issues Beige Book economic survey.
• US housing starts
• China GDP, retail sales, industrial production
• Eurozone CPI
• Italy trade
• South Africa retail sales
• UK CPI
• Earnings from Morgan Stanley, Netflix, and Tesla
• RBA Governor Bullock speaks at AFSA annual summit in Sydney.
• Fed’s Harker speaks at an event at Philadelphia Fed.
• Fed’s Williams participates in a moderated discussion at Queens College.
• Sweden’s Riksbank Governor Thedeen and Deputy Governor Floden speak on monetary policy.

Thursday, Oct. 19

Economic Data/Events:

• US initial jobless claims, existing home sales, leading index
• Australia unemployment
• China property prices
• Japan trade
• Spain trade
• Fed Chair Powell speaks at the Economic Club of New York.
• Fed’s Goolsbee speaks at Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce Business Day.
• Fed’s Bostic speaks on policy and inequality at the New School in New York.
• Fed’s Harker speaks at CFA society in Philadelphia.
• Fed’s Logan speaks at a Money Marketeers of New York University event.

Friday, Oct. 20

Economic Data/Events:

• Canada retail sales
• China loan prime rates
• Eurozone new car registrations
• Hong Kong CPI
• Japan CPI
• New Zealand trade
• Taiwan export orders
• President Biden hosts the EU’s von der Leyen and Michel in Washington.
• Fed’s Harker speaks at a Risk Management Association event in Philadelphia.

Sovereign Rating Updates:

– Greece (S&P)**Note could receive first upgrade to investment grade status

– Italy (S&P)

– Netherlands (S&P)

– United Kingdom (S&P) 

– France (Moody’s)

– Ireland (Moody’s)

– United Kingdom (Moody’s)

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