In late 2023, more than 50 million Americans held crypto, according to data from the #StandWithCrypto campaign. The number may have increased since US BTC-spot ETFs launched.
Why would a Trump victory boost demand for cryptos?
A Republican Party victory would end SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s term early. SEC Chair Gary Gensler could make way for a more crypto-friendly SEC Chair who may end the regulation through enforcement mantra.
There could also be progress in introducing a much-needed crypto regulatory framework to foster innovation while protecting consumers.
In June, Trump acknowledged the importance of crypto to the US, saying,
“We will ensure that the future of crypto and the future of bitcoin will be made in America. We’re going to keep it right here, and a lot of it’s going to be done right here in Florida.”
As investors consider the possibility of a pro-crypto White House, the Fed rate path also requires consideration.
Fed Chair Powell: Will the Fed Chair Signal Multiple Fed Rate Cuts?
On Monday, Fed Chair Powell is on the calendar to speak. Support for a September Fed rate cut could fuel speculation about a December Fed rate cut.
Multiple 2024 Fed rate cuts could boost demand for riskier assets.
Recent US inflation figures raised investor bets on a September Fed rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a September Fed rate cut jumped from 77.7% on Friday, July 5, to 96.3% on Friday, July 12.
Rising bets on a September Fed rate cut drove buyer demand for US BTC-spot ETFs. In the week ending July 12, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw total net inflows of $1.05 billion, the highest since the first week of June ($1.83 billion).
A dovish Fed Chair could support a BTC move toward the $70,000 handle.
Nevertheless, investors should remain vigilant. Monitor real-time data and expert commentary to adjust trading strategies accordingly. Stay up-to-date with our latest news and analysis to manage crypto market risk.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin Analysis
BTC remained above the 200-day EMA while sitting below the 50-day EMA. The EMAs affirmed the bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.
A BTC break above the 50-day EMA would support a move to the $64,000 resistance level. Furthermore, a breakout from the $64,000 resistance level could give the bulls a run at the $69,000 resistance level.
On Monday, Fed Chair Powell and US BTC-spot ETF market flows require consideration.
On the other hand, a drop below the $60,365 support level could give the bears a run at the 200-day EMA.
With a 50.48 14-Daily RSI reading, BTC could rise to the $69,000 resistance level before entering overbought territory.
