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Ukraine badly needs financial, military and political support from its western allies. On the latter, at least, the EU has come good. On financial aid, it has failed to step up to the plate at a critical moment when further US assistance hangs in the balance.
On Thursday evening, EU leaders agreed to begin negotiations on membership of the bloc for Ukraine alongside Moldova after Hungary’s pro-Russian prime minister Viktor Orbán backed away from vetoing the move. It was a victory for Kyiv, but also for the EU, which showed it can think and act strategically when the stakes are high.
Ukraine is going through its toughest period since the earliest days of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Its counteroffensive has petered out with only tiny territorial gains. A Biden administration request to extend military aid to Kyiv is deadlocked in Congress. Cracks are appearing in Ukraine’s united political front. The Kremlin has switched to a war economy while Ukraine and its allies are still struggling to ramp up production of artillery ammunition, the basic currency of war.
Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier on Thursday gloated in his first press conference in 22 months about faltering western resolve. He vowed to press on with his goals of “denazifying” and “demilitarising” Ukraine. An EU decision to begin accession talks is a good riposte, even if it brings Kyiv not a single extra shell. It underscores how Putin’s war of aggression to prevent Ukraine’s western orientation has been a failure. The accession process will help anchor reforms to lift the economy and prevent corruption. Above all, it gives Ukrainians light at the end of the tunnel. After a year of military disappointment, it is a political win for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and a psychological win for his people.
It was made possible because Orbán relented after weeks of insisting a place for Ukraine inside the EU was against Hungary’s fundamental interests. He was persuaded to leave the room when the decision was taken rather than block it. With that retreat on enlargement alone, the EU’s bogeyman has lost some of his aura.
However, Orbán will have plenty of other opportunities to veto the process: each next step, the negotiating framework, the opening and closing of each “chapter” of talks and the final ratification each require unanimous approval by the 27 member states.
On Thursday night the Hungarian leader also blocked approval of a €50bn EU aid package for Ukraine. Kyiv needs this money urgently. The EU will eventually find a way to give it — and more — even if an agreement among 26 members will be cumbersome and temporary. But calls to make Orbán pay for doing Putin’s bidding are only going to grow.
The go-ahead for Ukraine accession talks is the very beginning of a long journey with many pitfalls. Arguments over the cost of enlargement and over internal reforms needed to streamline decision-making could yet stymie its full membership. But the failure to take this step would have been a terrible blow to the EU’s strategic ambitions, which start with securing its neighbourhood.
Two years ago the EU was fundamentally split over whether Russia was an existential threat. Its war of aggression has changed that. “If it weren’t for Viktor Orbán, we’d have had a very good council. This crisis has united us and made us do stuff,” says a European diplomat.
The EU is going to have to do a lot more to help Ukraine in the months and years ahead. If there is no further US military and financial aid, the EU, UK and other allies are going to have to step in, even if few leaders are willing to acknowledge it. That will test European resolve far more than enlargement talks but they are at least a crucial show of solidarity.
