Admittedly, the BOE has seen some positive developments in recent weeks. Most notably, the better-than-expected inflation data released on July 19 raised hopes of a more favorable disinflation trajectory ahead, leading to a decrease in market interest rates, which were already being influenced by optimism about a soft landing in the US.
However, these positive notes are insufficient to offset the following inconvenient realities:
• The UK still holds the highest inflation rate among G7 economies at 7.9%.
• Despite 12 consecutive interest-rate hikes, and in an unusual policy step so deep into a hiking cycle, the BOE was forced in June to increase its last rate hike from 25 basis points to 50 basis points.
• Its forward policy guidance challenge is a multiple of what others face on account of the greater domestic economic and financial sensitivities.
• In response to political and other pressures, the BOE announced an external review of its “forecasting and related processes during times of significant uncertainty.”
These challenges are particularly perplexing for a central bank that was the first among its counterparts (the ECB and the Fed) to acknowledge its mistake in characterizing inflation as “transitory.” It was also the first to initiate its rate-hiking cycle to combat high inflation, and it remains the most transparent about the growth and inflation challenges ahead.
The reality is that the Bank of England faces a more acute set of tests compared to the other two major central banks, due to four main factors:
• Stronger resistance to further real wage erosion among segments of the labor force, evidenced by the combination of the highest nominal wage growth and widespread industrial action.
• Disruptions in external trading relations post-Brexit that slow supply chains and make them less cost-effective.
• A lower degree of internal economic flexibility contributing to longstanding productivity challenges.
• Limited government support for supply-side enhancement in comparison with the efforts of the US and, to a lesser extent, the euro zone.
The combination of these factors implies that it is unlikely that the BOE will experience significant accelerated relief in the months ahead. Also, as it does not as yet receive sufficient support from the government and other sources to enhance supply, the central bank faces an uncomfortable policy choice between tolerating too-high inflation for too long — or essentially going it alone in an even more pronounced manner, risking a deeper mortgage crisis that could unsettle the country economically, financially and socially.
One potential advantage for the BOE in the G7 is that it does not face the policy challenge of its Japanese counterpart, which, in the quarters ahead, must exit a protracted regime of yield curve control (YCC) causing economic and financial distortions. While this is an inherently difficult and uncertain policy maneuver that, if mishandled, can undermine domestic financial stability and economic wellbeing, it risks providing limited relief to the Bank of England. Because by contributing to higher government bond yield in advanced countries and possible forced selling by Japanese investors of foreign securities, a mishandling of the YCC exit by the Bank of Japan could complicate the already complex situation facing the UK.
More From Bloomberg Opinion:
• ECB Sets the Stage for a September Rate-Hike Pause: Marcus Ashworth
• The Fed Shouldn’t Settle for Above-Target Inflation: The Editors
• BOJ Yields Some Control, But Also Throws a Curve: Daniel Moss & Gearoid Reidy
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Mohamed A. El-Erian is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. A former chief executive officer of Pimco, he is president of Queens’ College, Cambridge; chief economic adviser at Allianz SE; and chair of Gramercy Fund Management. He is author of “The Only Game in Town.”
More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com/opinion
