On Tuesday, the Department of Labor was expected to report that headline CPI jumped by 0.5% month-on- month after December’s 0.1% dip, while core CPI was anticipated to have continued rising at a 0.3% pace.
Although there were reasons to believe that prices would moderate again in the spring, until then the risk was that the recent rate of decline would slow down substantially, which could push interest rate expectations higher, which would in turn weigh on risk assets.
One of the key drivers of the expected moderation in prices would be the start of falls in owners’ equivalent rent and rent prices, the exact timing of which was near impossible to predict. It might come a bit sooner or a bit later.
Also due out was a raft of economic data Stateside, with economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics cautioning that the unusually warm weather could see a string of strong-looking readings in the weeks ahead, although that strength too was expected to ebb afterwards as the weather effects faded.
On the flip-side, economists at Barclays believed that resilience in the jobs market would prop up consumption and result in quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of 0.5% and 1.0% in the first and second quarters of 2023, followed by declines of 0.5% and 1.0% in the last two quarters of the year.
“Positive economic developments over the last two months (including China’s reopening, lower European natural gas prices and “robust” US jobs data) have pushed recessionary prospects further into the future,” Barclays Research said.
“However, better growth also likely makes core inflation more persistent, forcing central banks to become more restrictive for longer. Next week‘s US CPI will be crucial.”
Key among those reports would be those for retail sales on Wednesday and the Philly Fed’s factory sector index on Thursday.
On top of that, at least 10 top Fed officials were scheduled to take to the podium over the course of the week.
Several key data points were also awaited in the UK, including the December employment report on Tuesday, CPI figures on Wednesday and retail sales numbers on Friday.
In the euro area meanwhile, European Central Bank boss, Christine Lagarde was scheduled to participate in a plenary debate at the European Parliament on Wednesday.
Speeches from the ECB’s chief economist, Philip Lane, and vice-President, Luis de Guindos, would follow on Thursday.
In Asia, rate-setters in the Philippines and Indonesia would meet to decide on policy on Thursday.
Monday 13 February
AGMS
Cellular Goods
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Coventry 12 1/8% Perm Int Bearing Shs #1000
Tuesday 14 February
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Cohort
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Price Index (US) (13:30)
GDP (Preliminary) (EU)` (10:00)
FINALS
Carr’s Group, Coca-Cola HBC AG (CDI), Plus500 Ltd (DI)
AGMS
Dewhurst Group, TUI AG Reg Shs (DI)
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Claimant Count Rate (07:00)
Unemployment Rate (07:00)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Blackrock Frontiers Investment Trust, Future, Grainger, Unicorn AIM VCT
Q1
TUI AG Reg Shs (DI)
Wednesday 15 February
INTERIMS
Dunelm Group, Hargreaves Lansdown, Pan African Resources
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Shaftesbury
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Ecora Resources, Marsh & Mclennan Cos Inc.
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (EU) (10:00)
Business Inventories (US) (15:00)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
FOMC Interest Rate Minutes (US) (19:00)
Industrial Production (EU) (10:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
Retail Sales (US) (13:30)
Retail Sales Less Autos (US) (13:30)
Wholesale Price Index (GER) (07:00)
GMS
Softline Holding GDR (REG S)
FINALS
Barclays
ANNUAL REPORT
Glencore
EGMS
Circle Property
AGMS
Blencowe Resources , GCP Infrastructure Investments Ltd
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Price Index (07:00)
Producer Price Index (07:00)
Retail Price Index (07:00)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Keystone Positive Change Investment Trust
Thursday 16 February
INTERIMS
MJ Gleeson
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Knights Group Holdings , Mattioli Woods, Mountview Estates, NCC Group, Triple Point VCT 2011 ‘B’, Triple Point Vct 2011 A
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
M Winkworth
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
BP, ICG Enterprise Trust, NextEnergy Solar Fund Limited Red, Pershing Square Holdings Ltd NPV, Pershing Square Holdings Ltd NPV (USD), Tritax Eurobox (EUR), Tritax Eurobox (GBP)
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Building Permits (US) (13:30)
Capacity Utilisation (US) (14:15)
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
Housing Starts (US) (13:30)
Industrial Production (US) (14:15)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
Philadelphia Fed Index (US) (13:30)
Producer Price Index (US) (13:30)
FINALS
Centrica, HarbourVest Global Private Equity Limited A Shs, Moneysupermarket.com Group, Relx plc, Riverstone Credit Opportunities Income
SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Mountview Estates
AGMS
Benchmark Holdings , Supermarket Income Reit, Tertiary Minerals
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Supermarket Income Reit
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Henderson Opportunities Trust, Imperial Brands , Jersey Electricity ‘A’ Shares, LLoyds Banking Group 6.475% Non-Cum Pref Shares
Friday 17 February
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Solid State
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
JPMorgan Asia Growth & Income, JPMorgan Japan Small Cap Growth & Income
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Current Account (EU) (09:00)
Import and Export Price Indices (US) (13:30)
Q4
NATWEST GROUP
FINALS
Allianz Technology Trust, NATWEST GROUP, SEGRO
ANNUAL REPORT
NATWEST GROUP
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
ICG-Longbow Senior Secured UK Property Debt Investments Ltd
AGMS
Sunrise Resources
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Retail Sales (07:00)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
AJ Bell, Focusrite, Victrex plc
