Something old and something new for UK politics

Hello and welcome to the working week.

We are living in a moment when even seemingly the most secure of diarised events evaporate: last week’s Chinese GDP announcement being a prime example (now due this week) and of course anything to do with the UK government.

Talking of the UK political news diary, since Liz Truss became PM in early September we have been on a cycle of significant shocks happening at the end of the week — the “mini” Budget, and the sacking of chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng being two examples. Now she’s gone, the trend may well continue. One thing is for certain, we will have a successor by Friday.

The FT’s team of parliamentary pundits will be on hand to guide you through these next few days, notably Stephen Bush of the Inside Politics newsletter — sign up here if you haven’t already. Read this one for a clear outline of the process and why a Sunak vs Boris contest is the most likely outcome on Monday. Read this also to learn more about who is more likely to unite the party.

By the way, this Friday also happens to be the western church’s feast day of St Jude, patron saint of lost causes. Just saying.

It is not just seemingly secure economic and political diary items that can be torn out of the schedule at a moment’s notice. Court hearings are often postponed. With that proviso, Monday is the date set for the criminal trial of former US president Donald Trump’s family company over tax fraud charges brought by Manhattan’s district attorney to begin in a New York courtroom. Read this for a full briefing on the case.

One thing that will be decided this week — having almost been decided earlier this month — is the election of Brazil’s next president. The second round of voting takes place on Sunday, after an ugly contest. Of course, both of the candidates have done this job before. And whoever wins will face enormous economic and social challenges in a country polarised politically.

As ever, thank you for your comments about this newsletter. Keep them coming, either by hitting reply or emailing [email protected].

Economic data

Interest rates, inflation and GDP are the headlines for economic news this week. Is it ever thus in this year of disruption?

The European Central Bank, now battling record high double-digit inflation in the eurozone, will announce its next monetary policy move on Thursday with expectations high for a 75 basis point increase. Earlier that day the Bank of Japan’s rate-setting committee begins its two-day meeting with the country’s ultra-loose policy expected to be maintained.

There will be another chance for speculation about the US Federal Reserve’s next rate move with an updated estimate of third-quarter GDP growth in the US indicating whether recession has become more or less likely in the coming months. Germany, where there are growing concerns that the country is already tipping into recession, will also update its quarterly GDP estimate.

The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reports on Monday will allow us some international comparisons, and provide probably the most significant economic data for the UK of this week.

There are unemployment and inflation rate updates from Japan, Australia, Italy and Hungary.

Companies

We’ve reached peak earnings season, again. No trains, but plenty of planes and automobiles this week — BA’s parent International Consolidated Airlines Group, Southwest Airlines, Ford Motor Company, Harley-Davidson, Hyundai Motor Company and JetBlue Airways are all reporting. The most obvious linking factor for all these companies is the cost of fuel. But for the airlines, there is also a problem getting the planes, according to my colleagues.

Big Tech will be out in force too with earnings updates from Spotify, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft.

It is the best of times and worst of times for British banks. Rising interest rates are helping the bottom line of HSBC, Barclays, NatWest and Lloyds Banking Group, but that has also made them a windfall tax target for a UK government desperate to fill a £40bn fiscal spending hole. There are specific challenges. With regards to HSBC, Jonathan Pierce at Numis says: “The main focus may be capital, which could fall well below target given a combination of the France disposal and rate related headwind”.

Given the Brazilian elections taking place this week, it is also worth mentioning that the country’s most valuable listed company, Petrobras, will give a production and sales update on Monday. What’s next for the energy company? Ask our man in São Paulo, Michael Pooler.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Eurozone, France, Germany, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/Sips flash composite (manufacturing and services) purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• Results: Heidrick & Struggles Q3, Hyundai Motor Q3, Pearson Q3 trading update, Petrobras Q3 production and sales report, Philips Q3,

Tuesday

• Brazil, Banco Central do Brasil monetary policy committee interest rate decision

• Germany, Ifo business confidence survey

• Hungary, interest rate decision

• Japan, monthly unemployment figures

• Poland, September unemployment figures

• Singapore, consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

• Sweden, Spain: producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data

• US, October consumer confidence index

• Results: Alphabet Q3, Carrefour Q3 sales, Corning Q3, General Electric Q3, Halliburton Q3, HSBC Holdings Q3 trading statement, JetBlue Airways Q3, Juniper Networks Q3, Kuehne+Nagel Q3, Mattel Q3, Microsoft Q1, NCR Q3, Norsk Hydro Q3, Novartis Q3, Orange Q3, Randstad Q3, Raytheon Technologies Q3, SAP Q3, Shoe Zone FY trading statement, Spotify Q3, THG Q3 trading statement, UBS Q3, United Parcel Service Q3, Visa Q4, Whitbread H1, Xerox Q3

Wednesday

• Canada, Bank of Canada interest rate announcement

• Japan, September PPI inflation rate data

• Russia, industrial output figures

• UK, employee earnings data

• US, new home sales

• Results: Accor Q3, Atos Q3, Banco Santander Q3, Barclays Q3 trading update, BASF Q3, Bloomsbury Publishing H1, Boeing Q3, Chubb Q3, Dassault Systemes Q3, Deutsche Bank Q3, Ford Motor Company Q3, General Dynamics Q3, Harley-Davidson Q3, Heathrow airport Q3, Heineken Q3 trading update, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Q3, KPN Q3, Kraft Heinz Company Q3, Mercedes-Benz Q3, Meta Q3, Moncler Q3, Puma Q3, Reckitt Benckiser Q3, Standard Chartered Q3, Telenor Q3, Thales Q3, UniCredit Q3, UMC Q3, WPP Q3 trading update, Wyndham Hotels and Resorts Q3

Thursday

• International Energy Agency (IEA) world energy outlook report

• EU, European Central Bank monetary policy meeting meets

• Germany, Gfk consumer confidence survey

• Japan, Bank of Japan’s October rate-setting meeting begins

• South Korea, Q3 GDP figures

• Spain, monthly unemployment figures

• UK, CBI distributive trades survey

• US, Q3 GDP figures

• Results: Amazon.com Q3, Anglo-American Q3 production report, Anheuser-Busch InBev Q3, Apple Q4, Brunswick Q3, Campari Q3, Carlsberg Q3 trading statement, Caterpillar Q3, Cemex Q3, Clariant Q3, Comcast Q3, Credit Suisse Q3, Danone Q3 sales, EDF Q3, Foxtons Q3 trading update, Fujitsu H1, HelloFresh Q3, Inchcape Q3 trading statement, Intel Q3, Kerry Group Q3, Lufthansa Q3, Lloyds Banking Group Q3 management statement, Mastercard Q3, McDonald’s Q3, Merck & Co Q3, Samsung Q3, Shell Q3 trading update, Shopify Q3, Southwest Airlines Q3, STMicroelectronics Q3, TotalEnergies Q3, Unilever Q3 trading update

Friday

• Australia, Q3 PPI inflation rate data

• Canada, August GDP figures

• France, monthly consumer spending data and flash Q3 GDP figures

• Germany, flash Q3 GDP and monthly CPI figures

• EU, business and consumer confidence surveys

• Italy, flash October CPI inflation rate data

• Japan, labour force survey

• Russia, key policy rate decision

• Spain, preliminary Q3 GDP figures

• Taiwan, preliminary Q3 GDP figures

• UK, insolvency figures

• Results: Airbus Group Q3, Air Canada Q3, Computacenter Q3 trading update, Electrolux Q3, Eni Q3, Equinor Q3, ExxonMobil Q3, Glencore Q3 production report, IAG Q3, Kongsberg Gruppen Q3, NatWest Q3, OMV Q3, Piaggio Q3, Swiss Re Q3, Volkswagen Q3

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Canada, Ontario municipal elections

• India, Sri Lanka: national holiday for the Diwali festival of lights

• Japan, 35th Tokyo International Film Festival opens

• UK, Nearly 600 Unite the Union members working as port operatives, maintenance engineers, senior control room operators and control room operators at Liverpool docks begin two weeks of strike action in a dispute over pay. Also, CWU members at BT Group and Openreach, including 999 call handlers, take further strike action over pay. Separately, the GMB union opens a strike ballot among 15,000 ambulance workers across 11 trusts in England and Wales in a dispute over pay.

• UK, long-awaited opening of Bond Street station on London’s cross city express railway the Elizabeth Line

• US, jury trial begins in the criminal case against the Trump Organization in New York. Charges include criminal tax fraud, falsifying business records, filing false tax returns, and a scheme to defraud the state. Company owner former president Donald Trump has called the charges a “political witch-hunt”.

• Zambia, independence day public holiday

Tuesday

• EU, German chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen host a conference on postwar reconstruction of Ukraine in Berlin

• Grenada, Thanksgiving public holiday

• Taiwan, the World Movement for Democracy’s 11th Global Assembly begins in Taipei

Wednesday

• UK, the largest independent film festival in the UK, the Raindance Film Festival, begins

Thursday

Friday

• 60th anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis ending

• Czech Republic, Independence Day public holiday

• UK, Northern Ireland secretary Chris Heaton-Harris expected to call an Assembly election if power-sharing isn’t restored to the devolved government

• US, 2022 World Series baseball playoffs begin

Saturday

Sunday

• European Daylight Saving Time ends

• Brazil, second round of voting in the country’s presidential election

• Russia, annual day of remembrance for the victims of Stalin’s purges