Race to lead European Investment Bank heats up – POLITICO

What’s driving the day in Brussels.

By BARBARA MOENS

with ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH

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Goedemorgen. I’m Barbara Moens, POLITICO’s senior trade correspondent, guiding you through the end of a quiet news week on the EU institutions front. As a native Belgian, I’m taking a risk by zooming in on the neighboring Netherlands. With less than 100 days to go until the Dutch election, political parties have this week been staging their candidates to succeed long-serving Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte.

But first … let’s put the spotlight on that other Benelux country. It’s the final day to put up your hand if you want to lead the European Investment Bank, based in Luxembourg. So it’s time to get out the popcorn to find out who might win the first of many EU top jobs soon to be up for grabs.

DRIVING THE DAY: EIB RACE       

START YOUR ENGINES: Pending some final vetting in Luxembourg of the nominees, the field of candidates to lead the European Investment Bank is now clear, so together with colleagues Giovanna Faggionato, Elisa Braun and Mark Scott, we took a look at how the race — which is likely to include the usual horse-trading between EU capitals — will play out in the fall.

Why all the fuss about this lender? Leading the world’s biggest multilateral financial institution has always been a prestigious post within finance and economic circles and has now become more attractive given the EIB’s role in rebuilding Ukraine and greening the European economy. Brussels is also discussing expanding its remit.

Camp 1: The hot-shot politicians. The EU’s competition chief Margrethe Vestager is the most well-known candidate in the running to lead the bank. Just her presence on the list signals the body’s increased importance (or perhaps her decreased influence in Brussels). Italy has Daniele Franco, a former finance minister. At the last minute, Spain threw its Deputy Prime Minister Nadia Calviño into the mix.

Camp 2: The insiders. Two current vice presidents of the EIB are also pursuing the job: Teresa Czerwińska, a former finance minister from Poland, and Thomas Östros, a former Swedish minister.

Enter some Belgian compromise-making: It’s up to the EU’s member countries to pick a candidate, as they are the bank’s shareholders. The process is not led by the finance ministers in their usual Ecofin grouping — which would give Spain control of the process, as it currently holds the presidency of the Council of the EU — but rather in their role as the Board of Governors of the EIB. That gives Belgian Finance Minister Vincent Van Peteghem, who chairs that board, the role of informal compromise seeker.

Place your bets: Still, the king-making is mostly done in Paris and Berlin. French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire already made clear that his country’s backing is contingent on the candidate’s support for nuclear energy. Paris will also take into account whether Vestager will support other French interests, such as the push to invest more in defense. All this is made even more interesting after Paris thwarted Vestager’s bid to install an American as the EU’s top competition economist.

Vestager’s ambitions: The commissioner has been mostly quiet, publicly, about her eagerness to take on the EIB’s top job. But inside the Berlaymont building, Vestager’s desire to find another high-profile role akin to her current position as Europe’s top antitrust enforcer has been well-known for a while. Yet given her recent setbacks — ones that extend beyond the Fiona Scott Morton affair, including a series of overturned antitrust cases in the EU’s top court — have some of her advisers questioning if the one-time star of the Commission may have overstepped.

Back one horse: Either way, to increase their chances of success, Sweden and Denmark or Italy and Spain would do better to align themselves behind one candidate, a senior EU official told Playbook.

What’s next? Finance ministers are now set to agree on a name at an informal meeting in Spain mid-September, in order to have someone ready for when current President Werner Hoyer leaves by the end of the year — and to avoid this job getting thrown into the bigger EU job puzzle after the European election.

POSTCARD FROM THE NETHERLANDS       

DUTCH CAMPAIGN GEARING UP: From an EU perspective, Dutch elections used to be simple: about 20 parties fought a fierce campaign and in the end, Mark Rutte was back at the European Council table. This time around, the race to The Hague’s Torentje, the office of the Dutch prime minister, is a lot more interesting — and the consequences for the EU much more uncertain.

What election? When I cycled by the Maas river in the lovely southern province of Limburg last week, any talk of the November election was dismissed by other cyclists or local shop owners — too far away, both in time as in distance. But back in The Hague, political parties this week put forward their candidates to lead the race.

Time to update your address book: Outgoing Climate Minister Rob Jetten will lead the list for the liberal D66, as outgoing finance minister and former party leader Sigrid Kaag announced she’s leaving national politics. (Although we wouldn’t recommend deleting her number just yet.)

Outgoing Justice Minister Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius will lead the list for Rutte’s center-right VVD. Ironically, Yeşilgöz-Zegerius, who was born in Turkey, entered the Netherlands via family reunion, a sticky migration issue which partly caused the fall of Rutte’s government. 

Tough fight ahead: Yeşilgöz-Zegerius is facing tough competition to hold on to the country’s leadership for her party. The Farmer-Citizen Movement, or BBB, had a huge win in provincial elections earlier this year, capitalizing on anger over the years-long nitrogen crisis (more on the nitrogen debate below in Brussels corner). This time around, it’s trying to surf on that momentum ahead of the national election, as my colleague Eddy Wax wrote here last week.

From field to … government jet: “The big question is: does the BBB want to govern? Are they willing to compromise, as they originated as a protest party?” Sander Tordoir of the Centre for European Reform told Playbook. The BBB’s only MP, Caroline van der Plas, has dismissed the idea of becoming prime minister, saying she doesn’t want to fly everywhere and walk around in heels all the time. (I would have liked to think the days of female politicians facing scrutiny over what’s on their feet were behind us. But, alas, we may have a way to go.)

Enter Frans: Next week, the EU’s climate chief Frans Timmermans is set to be crowned leader of a joint GreenLeft-Labor list, which is now leading POLITICO’s Poll of Polls, just ahead of the VVD and the BBB. So who knows, maybe fears of beating the 300-day coalition search record again is unnecessary. “If this consolidation in the campaign continues and Timmermans gets the most seats, the coalition search might go smoother than everyone initially thought,” Tordoir said.

SPANISH POLYGLOT PROMISE       

SPANISH DEAL MAKES NEW ELECTION LESS LIKELY: An election repeat in Spain appears less likely after a last-minute deal was reached Thursday regarding control of the Spanish parliament’s main administrative body — providing a boost to socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez.

… but, a problem for Brussels: The tactic of solving national problems through the EU is not new, but Sánchez is knocking on Brussels’ door with a pretty unique demand. The Spanish government on Thursday formally asked for Basque, Catalan and Galician to be recognized as official languages of the EU, as part of Thursday’s deal and to placate the Catalan separatist Junts party whose support Sánchez needs in order to remain in office.

Not so fast: Irish is the only one of the bloc’s co-official languages with official recognition at the EU level. Giving Spain’s co-official languages that same level of distinction requires the Council to unanimously agree to modify its existing regulations. It’s unclear if all capitals will back a move which might lead national minorities to demand their own languages enjoy equal recognition in Brussels.

Talk is (not) cheap: On top of that, staffing the EU institutions with Basque, Catalan and Galician translators would likely cost millions — and who will pick up the check? You can read more from Aitor Hernández-Morales and me on the Spanish language demands here.

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RUSSIA’S WAR       

UKRAINE GETS GREEN LIGHT TO TRAIN ON F-16 JETS: The U.S. has formally approved the transfer of F-16 training materials to Denmark, which will allow Ukrainian pilots to begin training on the fighter jets, my colleague Lara Seligman reports.

Battlefield ready: It comes as the U.S. assured Denmark and the Netherlands this week that it would “expedite” transfer requests so that the aircraft can be sent to the battlefield as soon as pilots are trained to use them. A Ukrainian official said this week, however, that Kyiv was not expecting to receive the jets this year.

COUNTEROFFENSIVE WON’T MEET KEY GOAL: Ukraine’s counteroffensive will fail to reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment reported by the Washington Post. Melitopol is a high priority for Ukrainian forces, as seizing the city would sever Russia’s access between Crimea and other occupied regions of southern Ukraine.

IN OTHER NEWS       

XI AT BRICS: China’s President Xi Jinping will attend the BRICS leaders’ meeting and visit South Africa on August 21-24, the Chinese foreign ministry said this morning. Reuters has the story.

WINTER IS COMING, BUT EU IS READY: As previewed in Thursday’s Playbook, the EU’s reserves of natural gas hit a historic high, filling up well in advance of the winter heating season as the bloc continues its dash away from Russian energy dependence. Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson said this means “the EU is well prepared for winter and this will help to further stabilize markets in the coming months.” More from top colleague Gabriel Gavin here.

RACE TO CONTROL AI IS SPLITTING THE WEST: Experts argue a common Western rulebook for AI is vital to allow companies that use the technology to operate with ease internationally, but officials say “egos in the room” are obstructing efforts, my colleague Mark Scott reports.

OLLI’S BAD JOKE: Olli Rehn — the governor of the Bank of Finland, a former European commissioner and a contender to be his country’s next president — has apologized for an off-color joke equating having gray hair with albinism. Details here.

CZECH PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE TO RUN IN EU ELECTION: Danuše Nerudová, an economist who ran for the Czech presidency, will stand as a candidate for the Mayors and Independents Party at 2024 European Parliament election. “We must confront populism again and offer an alternative,” she tweeted.

NIGER UPDATE: The West African ECOWAS bloc says it remains ready to intervene militarily in Niger “if everything else fails” and if diplomatic efforts to reinstate democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum are unsuccessful. More from Reuters.

QURAN BURNINGS: Sweden raised its terror threat to level four out of five on Thursday, following a series of Quran burnings in the country. The head of the Swedish security service Charlotte von Essen said the country has “gone from being considered a legitimate target to a priority target for violent Islamism.” More from Laura Hülsemann here.

BRUSSELS CORNER       

FARMERS PROTEST IN ANTWERP: Tractors will roll into Antwerp today as Belgian farmers plan to protest against the Flemish agreement to cut nitrogen emissions, the negotiation of which almost brought the local government down earlier in the year. Participants plan to gather in several municipalities around the city and form a convoy toward the center, with another group marching on foot from the central station. The protest will gather at Spoor Oost around noon.

WHAT’S ON: Lots on this weekend, including …

BRUXELLES JE T’AIME IN FLANDERS: Have you secured your ticket to sing along with Angèle’s “Bruxelles je t’aime” at this weekend’s Pukkelpop? The music festival sold out, but you can still try to grab a ticket via the exchange service. You can work off your hangover on Sunday catching up on some history at the Bokrijk open-air museum.

INDIAN FOOD FESTIVAL: The annual Indian Food Festival is taking place at Parc du Cinquantenaire, where both meaty and vegan delicacies will be available. Brussels Mayor Philippe Close and Indian Ambassador Santosh Jha will open the festival. Besides eating, you can also try to tie a traditional sari or enjoy a performance by the Brussels Bollywood Choir (Saturday at 3 p.m.).

LES BRIGITTINES: International festival Les Brigittines, focused on contemporary shows, is kicking off today with a welcome party at 6 p.m. The festival runs until September 2 and the program is available here.

Playbook tip: Catch a dance performance, Made of Space, by choreographers Maria Campos and Guy Nader, at 8:30 p.m. both today and Saturday, as part of the Spanish Council presidency.

THEATER FESTIVAL: Circus, dance, puppetry, theater and storytelling are just some of the arts that will be shown in Bois de la Cambre as a part of the Théâtres Nomades festival running until Sunday. You’ll find more information here, and a program here (attending some events requires registration in advance).

AND A BIT FURTHER AFIELD: Travel writer Mark Porter has this lovely dispatch from Les Rencontres d’Arles, the annual summer photography festival on the banks of the river Rhône. Worth your time.

FAREWELL: Best wishes to Irish Ambassador Tom Hanney, who finishes up a stellar 45-year career in the diplomatic service today, including two stints in Brussels, most recently as Ireland’s perm rep.

BIRTHDAYS: Vice President of the European Commission Věra Jourová; Former MEP Stanley Johnson; POLITICO’s Hanne Cokelaere, Laura Prier and Federica Di Sario; Süddeutsche Zeitung’s Laurenz Gehrke; Ava Lloyd from AstraZeneca; ECOS’ Mathilde Crêpy; Tim Nuthall from the Global Strategic Communications Council; European Commission’s Isabelle Krauss; EU Representation of Occitanie in Brussels’ Honorine Schwarz; Zbigniew Ziobro, Polish justice minister and POLITICO 28 alum.

CELEBRATING SATURDAY: MEPs Daniela Rondinelli and Javier Nart; Former MEP Stephen Hughes; German politician and former MEP Bernd Lucke; French politician Jean-Luc Mélenchon; Austrian diplomat Walter Grahammer; BusinessEurope’s Markus Beyrer; Austrian journalist and POLITICO 28 alum Armin Wolf; Former U.S. President Bill Clinton turns 77. It’s World Humanitarian Day.

CELEBRATING SUNDAY: MEP Catherine Griset; Brunswick’s Jonathan Faull; Portuguese President of the Assembly of the Republic Augusto Santos Silva; POLITICO’s Sanya Khetani-Shah; Italian politician and former Prime Minister Enrico Letta; Geneva Call’s Christie Edwards; Petros Fassoulas of European Movement International. State Foundation Day in Hungary.

THANKS TO: Elisa Braun, Giovanna Faggionato, Aitor Hernández-Morales, Mark Scott, Claudia Chiappa, Suzanne Lynch, Playbook reporter Ketrin Jochecová, editor Jack Lahart and our producer Seb Starcevic.

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